【作者】 张文杰；

【导师】 傅兆君；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 城市群作为现代城市经济发展的最高空间组织形态,是实现区域统筹,推动一体化发展的重要载体。然而,随着首位城市密度的不断提高,规模效益逐渐降低,集聚不经济日益显著,因此人口与经济活动开始出现往城市外围转移的趋势,从而逐渐产生新的集聚中心,这种现象被称为城市群的多中心化。目前纽约、伦敦等世界级城市群的多中心化现象已经十分显著。而我国由于城市化起步较晚,初期发展模式较为粗放,人口持续涌入首位城市,日益逼近乃至超出首位城市承载力上限,导致房价飙升、交通拥堵、环境污染、社会保障缺乏等城市治理问题不断涌现,社会矛盾愈发尖锐。因此近年来关于减少首位城市承载压力,推动城市群多中心化的讨论受到学界乃至全社会的广泛关注。在当前城市群对区域经济的统筹协调作用日益显著、中央与地方政府对城市群建设与规划也极为重视的背景下,探究城市群空间结构对地区经济增长与高质量发展的影响,有助于明确空间结构对城市群经济发展的影响机制,以便优化城市群空间结构布局,促进城市群快速、平稳、科学、协调发展。目前国内规模较大、发展较成熟的城市群共有六个:中原城市群、长江中游城市群、成渝城市群、京津冀城市群、粤港澳大湾区、长三角城市群。因此,本文以这六大城市群为样本,探究空间结构对城市群经济发展的影响,以期为国内城市群的空间布局优化提供参考。本文在梳理相关研究现状的基础上,构建研究框架,利用国内六大城市群2008-2018年的位序规模指数、空间基尼系数、人均生产总值等面板数据构建扩展后的C-D模型,分别从人口维度与产业维度进行空间结构对城市群经济增长影响的实证检验。实证结果表明,第一,在人口维度上,城市群人口空间结构演化对经济增长的影响呈现负相关,即随着人口集聚度的提升,城市群的经济发展水平逐渐降低,这意味着此时城市群人口空间结构的多中心化更利于经济增长;第二,在产业维度上,以制造业为代表衡量的产业集聚度的提升对城市群经济增长仍然起正面作用,这一结论与人口维度下的结论不一致,主要是由于:制造业的地理集中所产生的规模集聚效应要大于人口集聚的效应,即产业空间集聚的拐点要迟于人口集聚的拐点,说明当前以制造业衡量的产业尚未达到过度集聚。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the highest spatial organization form of modern urban economic development,urban agglomeration has great advantages in realizing regional overall planning and integrated development.However,with the increase of the density of the first city,in order to avoid uneconomic agglomeration,the population and economic activities began to shift to the fringe areas,thus giving rise to new agglomeration centers.At present,New York,London and other world-class city clusters have become more and more multi-centric.However,China’s urbanization starts late,the initial development model is relatively extensive,and the agglomeration of population and economy is also relatively blind.Therefore,a large number of people flood into big cities,which leads to soaring housing prices,traffic congestion,environmental damage,lack of household registration and medical care and other social conflicts becoming more acute.Therefore,in recent years,the discussion on reducing the burden of the first city and promoting the multi-center of city agglomeration has been widely concerned by the academic circle and even the whole society.In the current urban agglomeration effect on regional economy to drive around more prominence,are of the utmost importance to the urban construction and planning are the background,to explore the urban agglomeration spatial structure on economic growth and the effect of driving the development of urban agglomeration in high quality,help to help determine the spatial structure of urban agglomeration mechanism of the influence of economic development,in order to better for urban agglomeration spatial structure layout,and enhance the overall strength of the cities in the megalopolis.At present,there are six large and mature urban agglomerations in China: Central Plains Urban Agglomeration,Triangle of Central China,Chengdu-Chongqing City Group,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations.Therefore,this paper takes these six urban agglomerations as samples to explore the impact of spatial structure on the economic development of urban agglomerations,so as to provide theoretical reference for the optimization of spatial layout of domestic urban agglomerations.On the basis of combing the relevant research situation,research framework,the use of domestic six big scale of urban agglomeration of 2008-2018 order index,spatial Gini coefficient,and per capita GDP panel data to construct the extended c-d model,dimensions respectively from the dimension of population and industry spatial structure of urban agglomeration economy effect empirically.On the empirical results show that the dimension of population,population of urban agglomeration spatial structure evolution to economic growth is negative,the influence of the dimensions of urban agglomeration spatial agglomeration degree rise in population has a negative effect on economic growth,namely as the population agglomeration degree of ascension,economic development level of urban agglomerations gradually reduce,population spatial structure of urban agglomerations more centralized,more conducive to economic growth;Dimensions in industry,industrial concentration measured by the manufacturing still plays positive role on urban agglomeration economy growth,the conclusion and the spatial structure of urban agglomerations of population above do not match the economic mechanism is mainly because the scale of the geographical concentration of manufacturing agglomeration effect should be greater than the effect of population agglomeration,the turning point of the industrial spatial agglomeration is later than the population agglomeration of inflection point,shows the current industry is not measured by the manufacturing problems of excessive concentration.更多还原