【作者】 谢勇；

【导师】 肖慈方；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年1月,我国新外商法正式实施,外国投资者在准入前后均享有“准国民待遇”,“超国民待遇”逐渐退出历史舞台,外商直接投资得到进一步规范。长期以来,我国利用外资总额平稳增长,对我国技术进步以及企业现代化管理功不可没,促进了我国经济平稳高速增长。但是,针对外商直接投资影响我国商品价格贸易条件的研究结论并不一致,原因在于研究者所选取的研究对象以及研究阶段存在较大不同,部分学者选择我国总体贸易条件,另一部分学者选择我国与各国的双边贸易条件进行分析,致使关于我国贸易条件研究的相关结论差异较大。本文针对全球经济增长停滞以及中美贸易摩擦的研究背景,考虑到中美双边贸易商品进出口结构,选取中美制成品贸易条件作为研究对象。为此,本文根据联合国SITC的REV.3分类标准,对1995-2018年中美制成品价格贸易条件与收入贸易条件进行测算,发现中美制成品价格贸易条件大致可分为四个阶段波动,而收入贸易条件长期则呈现单边上行态势。同时依据国家统计局公布的我国制造业分类,对中美制成品贸易进行分行业价格贸易条件测算,各行业价格贸易条件变化平稳,但是电子设备以及仪器仪表行业波动较为剧烈。其次,对外商直接投资如何影响中美制成品价格贸易条件进行理论分析。首先从国际金融的视角分析外资流入数量对中美制成品价格贸易条件的影响:外资的流入数量可通过对东道国本币产生升值压力而不利于贸易条件的改善,但我国外汇储备巨大导致外资流入数量对汇率变动的影响较小。此外,对外商直接投资影响中美制成品价格贸易条件的技术溢出、工资外溢、产业集聚效应等影响机理进行梳理:外资的技术溢出效应,通过直接技术转让、示范效应、竞争效应能有利于我国价格贸易条件;工资外溢效应,通过影响我国劳动力工资同样具有正向作用;产业集聚效应,通过在东道国形成产业集群,以达到在全球市场拥有更高议价权利,进而有利于价格贸易条件;针对中美,梳理了FDI影响中美双边产业结构变化,进而对贸易条件产生影响。然后,在理论梳理的前提下进行实证分析,以验证我国外资的流入对中美制成品贸易条件的正向影响。本文实证首先进行中美制成品价格贸易条件总体时间序列回归,采用我国实际利用外资金额等宏观数据进行分析,借助“OLS+HAC稳健标准误”的方法进行回归,得出FDI有助于中国价格贸易条件改善的结论。此外,在确定变量间协整关系后,进行向量误差修正分析,探究短期不均衡状态长期如何回到均衡;其次,运用个体固定效应模型进行分行业面板数据分析,并采用企业微观数据进行回归,同样也得出外资企业总产值增加有助于我国价格贸易条件改善的结论,但发现外资企业总产值占我国行业总产值的比重增加会对我国价格贸易条件产生不利影响。据此,本文认为,我国利用外资的绝对量有助于价格贸易条件向好发展,但是东道国市场及要素等资源是有限的,外商直接投资若对我国部分行业产生“挤出效应”的情况下,将不利于我国价格贸易条件向好发展。此外,在固定效应模型部分进行异质性检验,发现制造业高技术行业的价格贸易条件对外商直接投资的反应更为敏感,因为高技术行业比中低技术行业的技术溢出以及工资外溢效应更显著。最后,本文据此提出建议:在引进外资的同时应注重规范外资企业竞争机制,建立贸易条件监测机制,进以衡量双边及多边贸易地位;规范外资企业市场准入,建立外资企业梯队管理模式,重视本土优质企业的培养,培育跨国经营人才;深化供给侧结构性改革,提升贸易利益分配份额。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the implementation of the "Foreign Investment Law of the People’s Republic of China",foreign investors and foreign companies have not only enjoyed pre-entry quasi-national treatment and negative list systems,but also enjoyed such treatment after access,and at the same time,foreign investors’ "super-national treatment" also gradually withdrew from the historical stage,and FDI was further regulated.For a long time,Chinese FDI has shown a steady growth trend.FDI has played an irreplaceable role in Chinese technological progress and modern management of enterprises,and has contributed to the steady and high-speed growth of Chinese economy.However,the research conclusions on FDI on Chinese terms of trade are not consistent.The reason is that the research objects and research stages selected by the researchers are quite different.Some scholars choose Chinese overall terms of trade for analysis,and more Scholars choose to study the terms of bilateral trade between China and different countries,resulting in large differences in relevant research conclusions.Aiming at the research background of the global economic slowdown and Sino-US trade frictions,this article takes into account the structure of Sino-US bilateral trade commodities,and selects Sino-US manufactured goods trade terms as the research object.To this end,this article first estimates the terms of trade and income terms of trade for manufactured products between 1995 and 2018 in accordance with the United Nations SITC’s REV.3 classification standard,and finds that the terms of trade for manufactured goods prices between China and the United States are not unilateral changes,but income terms of trade are long-term.It presents a unilateral upward trend.At the same time,according to the classification announced by the official,the China-US manufactured goods trade is calculated by industry price and trade terms.The price and trade terms of various industries have changed steadily,but the computer manufacturing and instrumentation manufacturing industries fluctuate sharply.Secondly,a theoretical analysis of how FDI affects the price and terms of trade of manufactured products between China and the United States.First,analyze the impact of the inflow of FDI and the structure of the inflow sector : the inflow of foreign capital can exert pressure on the host country’s domestic currency to improve the terms of trade,but Chinese huge foreign exchange reserves lead to foreign inflows.The quantity has a small effect on exchange rate changes;while the flow of foreign-invested industries to the import sector and the export sector has completely opposite results,but the flow of foreign-funded industries is highly uncertain.On this basis,the mechanism by which FDI affects the price and trade terms of China and the United States is sorted out: among them,the technology spillover effect of FDI can promote the price and the trade terms through direct technology transfer,demonstration effects,and competitive effects;wage spillover effects also have a positive effect on Chinese terms of trade by affecting the average wage of high-quality talents and ordinary workers’ wages;the industrial agglomeration effect is through the formation of industrial clusters in the host country to achieve higher bargaining power in the global market,Which in turn contributes to the improvement of the host country’s price terms of trade.Then,an empirical test is conducted.This paper empirically firstly conducts the regression of the overall time series of China-US manufactured product prices and terms of trade.It uses macro data such as the amount of foreign capital actually utilized in China for analysis,and uses the OLS + robust standard error method to perform regression.It is concluded that FDI is helpful to the improvement of my country’s price and terms of trade.And establish a VECM model to explore how the short-term imbalance state returns to equilibrium.Secondly,using the individual fixed effects model to analyze the panel data by industry,and using the micro data of enterprises for regression,it also draws the conclusion that the increase in the total output value of foreign-funded enterprises will help improve Chinese price and trade terms.In addition,it is found that the relative amounts will adversely affect Chinese price and trade terms.Based on this,this article believes that FDI essentially contributes to the improvement of Chinese price and terms of trade,but the host country’s market and factors such as resources are limited.If FDI produces a “crowding-out effect” on some industries in China,it will not be conducive to the good development of Chinese price and trade conditions.In addition,a heterogeneity test was conducted in the fixed effects model,and it was found that the price and trade terms of manufacturing high-tech industries are more sensitive to FDI,because high-tech industries have more technology spillovers and wage spillover effects than low-and medium-tech industries.Finally,this article makes recommendations based on this: while introducing foreign capital,attention should be paid to regulating the competition mechanism of foreign-funded enterprises,establishing a monitoring mechanism for terms of trade to measure the status of bilateral and multilateral trade;regulating the market access of foreign-funded enterprises,and establishing an echelon management model for foreign-funded enterprises.Attach importance to the training of local high-quality enterprises,cultivate transnational business talents;deepen the supply-side structural reforms,and increase the share of trade benefits.更多还原