【作者】 吴雪；

【导师】 乔杨；

【作者基本信息】 北京工商大学 ， 保险（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 为了改善养老保险“双轨制”带来的社会不公平以及沉重的财政负担等弊端,我国在2015年进行了机关事业单位养老保险改革。处于新旧制度交替阶段的“中人”群体存在待遇降低的风险,给新制度的平稳过渡带来挑战。因此,研究“中人”群体改革前后退休的养老金待遇变化趋势对新制度的平稳推行至关重要。由于养老金替代率能有效衡量劳动者退休前后的生活水平差异,故本文选取养老金替代率这一指标刻画“中人”群体在改革前后退休待遇的变化趋势。此外,世界各国根据自身情况,对于机关事业单位养老金改革设计的过渡办法也存在差异。本文将基于不同过渡办法研究机关事业单位“中人”养老金替代率的变化趋势。本文以我国为基础,考虑税收因素改进了精算模型,提出了涉及过渡系数和退休年份多维度变量的测算方法,并依此测算了机关事业单位“中人”的养老金替代率。同时考察了工资增长率、过渡系数、视同缴费指数、职业年金记账利率等因素对“中人”养老金替代率的影响。研究结果发现:我国目前的改革办法下,男性“中人”的养老金替代率明显高于女性“中人”且差距更大,“中人”养老金替代率存在“断崖式”下跌的风险,改革的平稳过渡面临挑战。另一方面,养老金总替代率和工资增长率、实际平均工资缴费指数呈现负相关关系,和过渡系数、视同缴费指数、职业年金记账利率呈现正相关关系;养老金总替代率的敏感性和工资增长率、过渡系数、视同缴费指数、职业年金记账利率呈正相关关系,和实际平均工资缴费指数呈负相关关系。据分析结果,提出以下相关建议:尽快落实延迟退休年龄的政策;根据“中人”不同退休年份对过渡系数进行差异化制定;各省制定合理的“视同缴费指数表”;进一步加强职业年金的投资运营并注意防范风险;合理化制定缴费基数。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to deal with the social unfairness and heavy financial burden brought by the "two track system" of endowment insurance,the reform of endowment insurance in institutions has been carried out in China since 2015.The "middle people" group in the transition stage of the new and old system has the risk of reducing the treatment,which challenges the smooth transition of the new system.Therefore,it is very important for the smooth implementation of the new system to study the changing trend of pension benefits before and after the reform of the "middle people" groups.Because the substitution rate of pension can effectively measure the difference of living standards of workers before and after retirement,this paper selects the substitution rate of pension as an indicator to describe the changing trend of retirement treatment of "middle people" groups.In addition,according to their own situations,there are also differences in the transition methods of pension reform and design of government agencies and institutions in the world.Based on different transition methods,this paper will study the trend of the substitution rate of "middle class" pension in government institutions.Taking China as an example,this paper improves the actuarial model considering tax factors.A calculating method including the multi-dimensional variables of transition coefficient and retirement year is proposed.According to this,the pension substitution rate of "middle people" in government institutions is calculated.The influence of wage growth rate,transition coefficient,deemed payment index,accounting interest rate of occupational annuity on the substitution rate of "middle people" pension is also investigated.The results are as following.Under the current reform method in China,the substitution rate of male "middle people" pension is significantly higher than that of female "middle people" pension,and the gap is larger.There is a risk of the severe decline in the substitution rate of "Chinese" pension,and the smooth transition of reform faces challenges.The total substitution rate of pension is negatively correlated with the wage growth rate and the real average wage payment index,and positively correlated with the transition coefficient,the deemed payment index and the accounting interest rate of occupational pension.The sensitivity of total replacement rate of pension is positively correlated with wage growth rate,transition coefficient,deemed contribution index,accounting interest rate of occupational pension,and negatively correlated with actual average wage contribution index.According to the analysis results,the following suggestions are put forward.It is suggested to implement the policy of delaying retirement age as soon as possible.The transition coefficient should be formulated according to the different retirement years of "middle people".Each province should make a reasonable "deemed payment index table".The investment and operation of occupational annuity need to be further strengthened and risk prevention should be paid attention to avoid.The government should make a reasonable payment base.更多还原