【作者】 朱虹；

【导师】 蒋岳祥；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 互联网信息技术的不断突破,信息科技已融入到我们的生产生活中,特别是金融行业的发展,传统金融与信息科技的结合催生了金融科技。金融科技的快速发展,夹带的风险逐渐显露,加深了金融体系的复杂性,深化了风险的防控研究。科技信息风险的防控是我国经济全面发展的战略性事件,关系到经济的健康发展与国家安全的维护。然而,对于金融科技风险的研究大部分仅停留在理论层面,并未对其量化和评估。本研究基于金融科技、风险因素测度及评价等方面的国内外文献研究,通过解读金融科技以及风险因素的定义和实际应用,总结了金融科技的经营现状及其对传统金融的影响,建立了以信息技术、信用、操作、市场、营运、流动性和法律政策风险等为指标的金融科技风险指标体系,汲取了蒙特卡洛法和模糊层次分析法的精华,剖析了金融科技及其风险因素测度和评价之间的内在联系,设计了金融科技风险因素的测度与评价的研究框架,为实践中构建两者之间的关系提供了理论依据。本文主要从金融科技的特定风险和整体风险两方面进行实证分析。首先,选择P2P为典型行业,通过整理网贷之家的可行性数据,研究基于GARCH模型的蒙特卡洛模拟法对金融科技特定风险的测度,展现了Va R对价格波动敏感,拟合性良好,能够准确地预测金融科技风险,表明测度模型具有较好的适用性。其次,通过整理有效的调查问卷,采用蒙特卡洛的层次分析法计算金融科技整体风险的各个指标的相对权重并模糊评价,进而判断,表明信息技术、法律政策和信用风险等级较高,应重点防控,为化解金融科技风险提供理论基础和科学依据。结合本文的理论研究与实证分析,得出了以下结论:第一,促进信用服务系统化。金融科技的系统风险中,信用风险相对突出。因此如果实现金融科技的可持续发展,则需要加强金融科技信用服务机制的完善,营造健康的生态环境。其次,加强金融科技的信息安全建设。推进信息技术建设、健全信息安全管理机制、加强信息安全的防护建设与教育,完善企业营运系统等来营造健康安全的金融环境。第三,加强金融科技的法律体系建设和监管。金融科技迅猛发展,但监管体系相对滞后,这就需要完善相关法律法规,做到有法可依,落实监管责任,及时有效地响应风险的发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous breakthroughs related to Internet information technology,information technology has been integrated into our production and life,especially in the development of the financial industry.The combination of information technology and traditional finance has promoted the birth of fintech.With the rapid development of fintech,the hidden risks are gradually revealed,which escalates the complexity of the financial system and deepens the research on risk prevention and control of technology information.Risk prevention and control of technological information is a strategic event in the overall development of the economy of China.It not only affects the healthy development of the economy,but also relates to the safeguard of national security.However,most of the researches on the risk of s fintech only stays at the theoretical level,and does not quantify and evaluate it.This research is based on the Chinese and foreign literature research on fintech,risk factor measurement and evaluation,and it sorts out the development status of fintech and its impact on traditional finance by interpreting the connotation and essence of fintech and its risk factors,and this research establishes a scientific and fintech risk indicators system with indicators such as the information technology,credit,operation,market,operation,fluidity and the risks of law and policies.This research absorbs the essence of Monte Carlo method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,analyzes the internal relationship between fintech and its risk factors measurement and evaluation,designs a research framework for measuring and evaluating the risk factors of scientific and fintech,and provides a theoretical basis for constructing the relationship between them in practice.This thesis carried out the empirical analysis from two aspects: the specific risk and the overall risk of fintech.Firstly,P2 P is chosen as a typical industry.Through sorting out the feasibility data of www.WDZJ.com studied the measurement of the specific risk of fintech based on Monte Carlo simulation method,which shows that Va R is sensitive to price fluctuation.The model has good fit,and it can accurately predict the risk of fintech,which means that the measurement model has good applicability.Secondly,through sorting out effective questionnaires,I used Monte Carlo analytic hierarchy process to compute the relative weight of each indicator of the overall risk of fintech and fuzzy evaluation,and then make judgment.It showed that the level of information technology,laws and policies and credit risk are high.So we should focus on the prevention and control of these aspects.This also provided a theoretical basis scientific basis for resolving the risk of fintech.Through the theoretical research and empirical analysis of this thesis,I drew the following conclusions:First,strengthen the construction of our country’s credit service system.The fintech itself produces risks and can dissolve them.And the fintech can promote the healthy and sustainable development of economy,so we should improve the credit service system of fintech actively and cultivate a good ecological system about this.Second,we should strengthen the information security construction of fintech.Promote the construction of information technology,improve the management mechanism of information security,strengthen the construction and education of information security protection,improve the enterprise operation system and so on to create a healthy and safe financial environment..Third,We should strengthen the building of the legal system for fintech.Fintech is booming,but the regulatory system is lagging behind.It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations,implement regulatory responsibilities,and respond to the occurrence of risks in a timely and effective manner.更多还原