【作者】 杨洋；

【导师】 鲁华章； 赵宏展；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学(北京) ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 在不确定性扰动呈常态化趋势的时代背景下,老旧社区作为城市安全中最薄弱的环节之一,灾害脆弱性日益凸显。为解决传统防灾减灾规划局限问题,增强老旧社区防灾适应力,建设安全、宜居、可持续的新型减灾城市社区,本文引入适灾韧性理念,构建老旧社区适灾韧性评价指标体系和综合评价模型,并以北京市一处老旧社区为例,进行实地验证,为城乡公共安全发展提供新可能。论文研究主要从以下方面开展:第一,通过研读并梳理相关文献,对社区及老旧社区、韧性及适灾韧性、老旧社区适灾韧性进行概念界定,明确研究对象和范畴;并从时间维度特征、空间维度特征、能力属性特征三方面深度解读老旧社区适灾韧性的作用内涵;在此基础上,动态地考虑系统外部环境和内部特征的协同作用,构建全过程、全空间、全要素参与下的老旧社区适灾韧性概念框架,共包含四个基本支柱、六个主要维度和十个关键特征属性,为后续研究夯实理论基础。第二,在主观筛选的基础上考虑我国本土老旧社区存在的自身脆弱性、周边暴露性和灾害脆弱性,加之防灾领域专家的建议和完善,构建具有针对性的老旧社区适灾韧性评价指标体系,共包括6个一级指标,17个二级指标,45个三级指标;利用AHP-熵权组合法对各级指标进行权重计算和汇总,为后续综合评价做可靠铺陈。第三,以北京市一处老旧社区为实证对象,基于可拓理论建立了老旧社区适灾韧性物元综合评价模型,准确捕捉和量化多指标间的矛盾关系和关联关系,并验证其适用性和有效性;依照评价结果和权重分析,进行了传统防灾、减灾理念下的老旧社区改造工程建设与老旧社区适灾韧性评价模型下的改造工程的措施和投入对比,直观感受老旧社区适灾韧性评价模型的工程意义和科学经济性。第四,基于老旧社区适灾韧性的概念框架、评价指标体系和综合评价模型,从自然维度、经济维度、社会维度、物理维度、制度维度和人口维度六个维度对老旧社区适灾韧性提出针对性的提升策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of the era when uncertain disturbances are becoming normal,old communities,as one of the weakest links in urban security,have become increasingly vulnerable to disasters.In order to solve the limitations of traditional disaster prevention and mitigation planning,enhance the resilience of old communities to disaster prevention,and build safe,livable and sustainable new disaster reduction urban communities,this paper introduces the concept of disaster resilience and constructs an evaluation index system for disaster resilience of old communities And the comprehensive evaluation model provides new possibilities for the development of urban and rural public security.First,by studying and combing relevant literature,define the concepts of communities and old communities,resilience and resilience to disasters,and old communities resilience to disasters,and clarify the research objects and categories;and from the characteristics of time dimension,space dimension,and ability Interpretation of the role of disaster resilience in old communities from three aspects of attribute characteristics;on this basis,the synergy between the external environment and internal characteristics of the system is dynamically considered,and the old community’s adaptability is constructed with the participation of the whole process,all spaces,and all elements.The conceptual framework of disaster resilience includes four basic pillars,six main dimensions,and ten key characteristic attributes,which lay a solid theoretical foundation for subsequent research.Second,on the basis of subjective selection,consider the existing vulnerabilities,surrounding exposures and disaster vulnerabilities of the old communities in my country,together with the suggestions and improvements of experts in the field of disaster prevention,to build targeted disaster resilience in old communities The evaluation index system includes 6first-level indicators,17 second-level indicators,and 45 third-level indicators;the AHP-entropy weight combination method is introduced to calculate and summarize the weights of all levels of indicators to provide a reliable basis for subsequent comprehensive evaluation.Third,take an old community in Beijing as an empirical object,introduce the matter-element comprehensive evaluation model guided by extension theory,accurately capture and quantify the contradictory relationship and correlation between multiple indicators,and verify its applicability and effectiveness;According to the evaluation results and weight analysis,the traditional disaster prevention and mitigation concept of the old community renovation project construction and the old community disaster resilience evaluation model of the renovation project measures and investment comparisons,intuitive experience of the disaster resistance of the old community The engineering significance and scientific economy of the resilience evaluation model.Fourth,based on the conceptual framework,evaluation index system,and comprehensive evaluation model of disaster resilience of old communities,the six dimensions of natural,economic,social,physical,institutional and demographic dimensions of disaster resilience to old communities Propose targeted promotion strategies.更多还原