【作者】 张婷；

【导师】 李宏兵；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 国际商务（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 就业是经济社会发展的重要动力,与民生福祉息息相关。但当前国际贸易市场中的贸易冲突和贸易矛盾越来越多,中国面临的贸易政策不确定性(Trade Policy Uncertainty简称TPU)陡然提升,进而威胁到了我国就业平稳健康发展,因此降低贸易政策不确定性对促进我国就业持续稳定发展具有重要战略意义。本文在中国入世后取得了美国永久的“最惠国待遇”的背景下,基于1998年-2007年中国制造业企业的面板数据,构建了准自然实验框架,采用双重差分法研究贸易政策不确定性与我国制造业企业就业的关系。结果发现:(1)TPU下降对于制造业企业的就业规模增长具有显著促进作用;(2)从影响机制来看,出口贸易机制和技术进步机制是TPU影响制造业企业就业规模的重要渠道;(3)从企业异质性分析看,TPU下降对高工资企业、资本密集型企业、东部地区及中部地区的制造业企业就业规模扩大促进作用更加显著。同时本文进行了安慰剂检验、同趋势性假设检验及两期双重差分法检验确保双重差分法的可行性及估计结果的可靠性。在研究结果的基础上,本文提出了相应的对策建议以降低TPU对就业的不利影响。本文将研究视角触达至鲜有文献涉及的贸易政策不确定性与制造业就业规模的关系上,系统揭示了贸易政策不确定性影响制造业企业就业规模的作用渠道,丰富和拓展了该领域的研究方法及研究文献;同时所采用的双重差分法的研究方法确保了结果的可靠性,避免了潜在的内生性问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is an important driving force for economic and social development and is closely linked to people’s wellbeing.However,as global trade frictions intensify,China is facing trade policy uncertainty(referred to as TPU)has increased abruptly,which threatens the steady and healthy development of employment in my country.To achieve durable employment progress,reducing TPU is necessary.This paper uses DID method and the panel dada of 1998-2007 Chinese manufacturing firms to construct Quasi natural experimental framework to study what and how TPU affects employment under the background of China’s permanent "Most Favored Nation" status after China’s accession to the WTOAA.The results showed that:(1)When TPU decreased by a large margin,the employment would increase greatly;(2)TPU would affect employment through export trade and technology advance channel;(3)For high-wage companies,capital-intensive companies,eastern and central companies,TPU’s effect was more apparent.Meanwhile,this paper implemented a placebo test,a same tendency hypothesis test and a two-period DID method test to ensure the estimated outcome reliable.Policy proposals were dished according to outcome,which can reduce TPU adverse effect on employment.This paper brings the research perspective to the relationship between the TPU and China’s manufacturing employment,which is rarely involved in literature,and systematically reveals how the TPU affects China’s manufacturing employment,enriching and expanding the field.At the same time,the research method of the DID method adopted ensures reliable results and avoids potential endogeneity problems.更多还原