【作者】 雷蕾；

【导师】 巴殿君；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 国际政治， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 朝鲜核问题是当今世界纷繁复杂的重大国际难题,是对东北亚地区安全的重大威胁,也是对中美关系走向具有影响的重要变量。自上世纪90年代第一次朝核危机以来,朝核问题似乎永远在挑衅、危机、接触、谈判和崩溃的周期性演变中不断升级、愈发紧张,使中美两国国家安全面临严峻挑战,中美在朝核问题中的博弈亦随之复杂,呈现出竞争与合作并存的明显特征。究其竞合关系状态的原因,一方面,中美在朝核问题的解决中具有共同利益。朝鲜彻底且不可逆转地去核化、维护半岛和平与稳定是中美出于自身和地区安全考虑而形成的共同利益驱动。另一方面,中美在朝核问题的战略优先项和问题解决路径等诸多方面存在立场分歧和利益冲突。中美的战略目标优先顺序存在差异——中方认为,在朝核问题的解决中维护朝鲜半岛和平与稳定目标的重要性优先于朝鲜半岛无核化目标,而美国方面恰恰相反。两国的朝核问题解决路径迥然——中国一贯主张以对话谈判的方式化解朝核问题中的矛盾与对立,充分尊重多边框架下各方的意见,而美国方面一贯强调国际制裁。本论文共分为5个部分。第1章,从竞争与合作性理论阐述了相关概念与理论分析框架;第2章,竞合理论的框架下,对中美在朝核问题上基于共同利益的驱动、两国过往的双边合作历史经验以及中国对国际合作的参与进行了详细梳理;第3章,竞合理论的框架下,对中美在朝核问题上的认知差异、两国围绕朝核问题的目标冲突以及两国解决朝核问题的路径分歧进行了深入阐述;第4章,基于对影响中美在朝核问题上的竞合关系因素剖析,进而对在朝核问题上中美竞合关系未来新发展态势进行预判;第5章,详细分析了中美的竞合关系对朝核问题的影响,并在此基础上对中国的应对路径提出了建议。当今世界正处于大发展、大变革、大调整的时代。中美在朝核问题上的竞合关系总体上呈现出“竞争为主、合作为辅、竞争日益加速、合作日益放缓”的发展态势。中美竞合关系如何认知与定位,影响着双方在地区和全球层面对于朝核问题解决的未来发展态势。因此,中美未来应维持战略对话沟通,保持基本的战略互信,理性认知中美博弈现状,谨防多问题博弈相交叉,将区域治理与全球治理有效结合,推进双方在区域安全机制构建与核不扩散全球治理方面的紧密合作。做好危机管控,相互协调,避免中美竞合关系走向完全失控,无疑对朝核问题的解决、区域安全机制构建与防止核扩散等重大议题具有深远意义,成为影响地区安全和世界和平的重大政治事项。更多还原

【Abstract】 The North Korean nuclear issue is one of the most complex and complicated major international problems in the world today,which is a significant threat to the security of Northeast Asia and has become an important variable that has great influence on the trend of Sino-U.S.relations.Since the first North Korea nuclear crisis in the 1990 s,the North Korea nuclear issue seems to be constantly escalating and becoming increasingly tense in the periodic evolution of provocation,crisis,contact,negotiation and collapse,which also makes the national security of China and the United States face severe challenges.The game between China and the United States in the North Korea nuclear issue has become increasingly complex,showing the obvious features of coexistence of competition and cooperation.The reasons for the state of competition and cooperation are analyzed.For one thing,China and the United States share common interests in solving the North Korean nuclear issue.The complete and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea and the maintenance of peace and stability on the peninsula are driven by the common interests of China and the United States for their own and regional security.For another,China and the United States have different positions and conflicts of interest on the strategic priorities and solutions of the North Korean nuclear issue.There are differences between China and the United States in the priority of their strategic goals-China believes that the goal of maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is more important than the goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula in the settlement of the Korean nuclear issue,while the United States is on the contrary.The two countries have different ways to solve the North Korean nuclear issue.China has always advocated resolving the contradictions and opposites in the North Korean nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiation,fully respecting the opinions of all parties under the multilateral framework,while the United States has always stressed international sanctions.This paper is altogether divided into five parts.In the first chapter,the related concepts and theoretical analysis framework are elaborated from the perspective of competition and cooperation theory;In the second chapter,based on the theory of competition and cooperation,the thesis makes a detailed analysis of the common interests of China and the United States on the North Korean nuclear issue,the historical experience of bilateral cooperation between the two countries and China’s participation in international cooperation;In Chapter 3,under the framework of the theory of cooperation and competition,the cognitive differences between China and the United States on the North Korean nuclear issue,the goal conflict between the two countries around the North Korea nuclear issue,and the path differences between the two countries to solve the North Korea nuclear issue are elaborated;In Chapter 4,based on the analysis of the factors influencing the Sino-U.S.Co-opetition relationship on the North Korean nuclear issue,the author predicts the new development trend of the Sino-U.S.Co-opetition relationship on the North Korean nuclear issue;Chapter 5 analyzes in detail the impact of Sino-U.S.competition and cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue,and on this basis,puts forward some suggestions on China’s response path.At present,the world is in an era of great development,great change and great adjustment.On the whole,the competition and cooperation relationship between China and the United States on the North Korea nuclear issue presents the development trend of competition first,cooperation second,competition accelerating,cooperation slowing down.How to recognize and position the Sino-US competition and cooperation relationship will affect the future development trend of the two sides in solving the North Korean nuclear issue at the regional and global levels.Therefore,in the future,China and the United States should maintain strategic dialogue and communication,maintain basic strategic,trust one another,rationally recognize the current situation of the game between China and the United States,guard against the intersection of multi issue games,effectively combine regional governance with global governance,promote the close cooperation between the two sides in the construction of regional security mechanism and the global governance of nuclear non-proliferation,and do a good job in crisis management and coordination,To avoid a completely out of control competition and cooperation between China and the United States will be of far-reaching significance to the settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue,the construction of regional security mechanism and the prevention of nuclear proliferation,and will become a major political issue affecting regional security and world peace.更多还原