【作者】 李晓东；

【导师】 张抗私；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年第一季度农村居民人均可支配收入为4641元,人均消费性支出为3334元;而城镇居民人均可支配收入为11691元,人均消费性支出为6478元,说明我国居民消费水平和收入水平均得到了大幅度提升,但城乡的消费水平和收入水平之间仍存在着较大差距。本文希望能够通过实证分析为改善代际流动的城乡二元结构提供行之有效的措施,减小城乡之间的收入差距。本文通过使用1988年、1995年、2002年CHIPS数据,2010年、2012年CFPS数据,2015年CGSS和2016年CLDS数据,考察了社会平均人力资本水平上升能否缩小城乡收入代际流动性的差异,希望能够为现有的城乡代际流动性差异研究提供新的视角。本文使用双样本工具变量法、多项Logit和基于Altham指标的反事实分析,通过代际收入弹性、代际收入弹性分位数回归结果和社会流动性表三个维度来分析城乡代际流动性之间存在的差异,使用多项Logit预测社会平均人力资本提升之后的收入阶层,进一步通过反事实分析方法运用Altham指标比较社会平均人力资本提升之后的城乡代际流动性变化差异。结果表明:首先,代际流动性方面的确存在城乡二元结构,且城市的代际流动性弱于农村;其次,较低的人力资本水平抑制收入阶层的上升,较高的人力资本投资水平,能够帮助个体跨越更多的收入阶层,摆脱父代收入的桎梏;最后,提出社会平均人力资本上升的反事实假设,得出社会平均人力资本的上升会减小城乡代际流动之间的差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the first quarter of 2020,the per capita disposable income of rural residents is 4641 yuan,and the per capita consumption expenditure is 3334 yuan;while the per capita disposable income of urban residents is 11691 yuan,and the per capita consumption expenditure is 6478 yuan.This shows that the consumption level and income level have been greatly improved,but there is still a gap between the consumption level and the income level between urban and rural areas There is a big gap.This paper provides effective measures to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas through empirical analysis.By using chips data in 1988,1995,2002,CFPS data in 2010 and 2012,CGSS in 2015 and CLDS in 2016,this paper examines whether the increase of social average human capital can reduce the intergenerational income mobility gap between urban and rural areas,hoping to provide a new perspective for the existing urban-rural intergenerational mobility differences.This paper uses double sample instrumental variable method,Multiple Probit and counterfactual analysis based on Altham index.It analyzes the differences between urban and rural intergenerational mobility through three dimensions:intergenerational income elasticity,intergenerational income elasticity quantile regression results and social mobility table.It uses Multiple Probit to predict the income class after the increase of social average human capital,and further through counter events The real analysis method uses Altham index to compare the changes of intergenerational mobility between urban and rural areas after the improvement of social average human capital.The results show that:firstly,there is a dual structure between urban and rural areas in terms of intergenerational mobility,and the intergenerational mobility of cities is weaker than that of rural areas;secondly,lower level of human capital inhibits the rise of income class,and higher level of human capital investment can help individuals to cross more income classes and get rid of the shackles of their parents’ income;finally,it puts forward that the social average human capital increases The counterfactual hypothesis shows that the increase of social average human capital will reduce the difference between urban and rural intergenerational flows.更多还原