【作者】 张娜；

【导师】 刘沈忠；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国工业经济得到迅猛发展。如今,中国工业经济规模已跃居世界首位,成为全球经济增长的重要驱动力。工业是能源消耗大户也是中国碳排放的主导部门,有效控制工业碳排放促进工业经济平稳增长成为中国经济的发展重点。关键工业部门是工业行业的核心,主导着工业行业80%以上的碳排放量。因此,准确认识关键工业部门碳排放情况,促进各关键工业部门碳排放与行业经济增长脱钩对工业行业实现低消耗、低排放的转型发展,同时对推动制造业减排和中国碳达峰目标的实现具有战略意义。本文基于LMD膜型及Tapio脱钩理论,引入能源强度、投资强度、能源结构、研发强度、经济规模、研发效率、经济结构七个因素构建工业碳排放脱钩模型。首先分析中国关键工业部门碳排放状况及其脱钩状态,然后对关键工业部门碳排放驱动因素进行分解,进而计算各驱动因素脱钩因子及脱钩因子贡献率,综合驱动因素分解情况及各脱钩因子贡献率,准确把握六个关键工业部门碳排放与行业经济增长间的脱钩状态及脱钩驱动因素。结果表明:(1)长期来看,中国六个关键工业部门碳排放均处于弱脱钩状态。其中非金矿物制品业在各研究时期基本处于弱脱钩状态,且部门整体脱钩状态相对稳定。近年来,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业以及电力、热力生产和供应业三个工业部门脱钩状态不稳定,有扩张连接、扩张负脱钩和强负脱钩状态出现。此外,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业、化学原料和化学制品制造业三个工业部门有呈现强脱钩状态的趋势。但是基于2000-2016年长期来看,六个关键工业部门碳排放脱钩状态仍然是弱脱钩。(2)六个关键工业部门碳排放脱钩驱动因素既有共性又有个性。经济规模效应是六个关键工业部门脱钩的首要抑制因素,相应脱钩因子对黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业脱钩的长期贡献率高达50%,在六个关键工业部门中驱动效果最显著。经济结构效应对石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业以及电力、热力生产和供应业两个部门脱钩促进作用相对显著,且对有色金属冶炼和压延加工业脱钩存在一定的抑制。能源结构效应对各部门碳排放脱钩的贡献不大。且近年来,投资强度效应、研发强度效应和研发效率效应对各关键工业部门碳排放脱钩有着重要影响。长期来看,研发强度效应和能源强度效应是六个工业部门脱钩的关键促进因素。本文研究有利于明确中国关键工业部门碳排放与行业经济增长的关系,为中国工业低碳转型提供理论参考。与现有研究相比,本文的改进和创新主要体现在研究对象、指标选取和研究方法三个方面:(1)研究对象。将碳排放与经济增长脱钩研究定位于中国关键工业部门,关键工业部门在工业行业中能源消耗量最高且主导着工业碳排放的变化,对其研究对促进工业行业转型发展更加具有指向性和参考性。(2)指标选取。充分考虑工业企业节能减排等研发和投资情况下,引入研发效率、研发强度、投资强度等七个指标去研究关键工业部门脱钩驱动因素,可以更加准确反映各部门碳排放脱钩的实际情况。(3)研究方法。在分阶段分析和长期综合分析结合的基础上,再将定性分析与定量分析结合,对各驱动因素的量化分析更加直观体现各指标的驱动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China’s industrial economy gets swift and violent development.The added value of China’s industry has increased from 12 billion yuan in 1952 to over 30 trillion yuan in 2018.Today,China’s industrial economy is the largest in the world and an important engine of global industrial growth.Industry is not only a major energy consumer but also the leading sector of China’s carbon emissions.Key industrial sectors are at the heart of the industrial sector,accounting for more than 80 per cent of its carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of strategic significance to accurately understand the carbon emission situation of key industrial sectors and promote the decoupling of carbon emission from the economic growth of each key industrial sector to achieve the transformation and development of low consumption and low emissions in the industrial sector,and at the same time to promote the emission reduction of the manufacturing sector and the realization of China’s carbon peak.Based on LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model,this paper introduces energy intensity,energy structure,economic scale,economic structure,investment intensity,R&D intensity and R&D efficiency to build industrial carbon emission decoupling model.Firstly,the carbon emission status and decoupling status of China’s key industrial sectors were analyzed,and then the driving factors of carbon emission in key industrial sectors were decomposed,and then the decoupling factors and contribution rates of each driving factor were calculated.Based on the decomposition of driving factors and the contribution rates of various decoupling factors,we can accurately grasp the decoupling state and driving factors between carbon emissions and economic growth of the six key industrial sectors.The results show that:(1)in the long run,China’s carbon emissions from all key industrial sectors are in a state of weak decoupling.The decoupling state of non-gold products is relatively stable and basically in a weak decoupling state.In recent years,the decoupling states of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,electric power and thermal production and supply industry are unstable,and there are expansion connection,expansion negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling states.In addition,the three industrial sectors of petroleum,coal and other fuel processing industries,non-metallic mineral products industry,and chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industries have a trend of strong decoupling.But over the long term from 2000 to 2016,the decoupling of carbon emissions from six key industrial sectors remains weak.(2)The driving factors of decoupling of carbon emissions in key industrial sectors have both commonality and individuality.Economies of scale effect is the primary restraining factor for decoupling of six key industrial sectors,especially ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,whose long-term contribution rate of economy of scale decoupling is as high as 50%.The economic structural effect has a relatively significant role in promoting the decoupling of the petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industries,as well as the power and thermal production and supply sectors,and there is a certain inhibition of the decoupling of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries.The contribution of energy structure effect to carbon emission decoupling of various sectors is not obvious.In recent years,the investment intensity effect,R&D intensity effect and R&D efficiency effect have important effects on carbon emission decoupling in key industrial sectors.In the long term,the R&D intensity effect and the energy intensity effect are key contributors to the decoupling of the six key industrial sectors.This study is helpful to clarify the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth of key industrial sectors in China and provide theoretical reference for industrial low-carbon transformation.Compared with existing research,the improvements and innovations in this article are mainly reflected in three aspects:research object,index selection and research method:(1)Research object.The research on decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth is positioned in China’s key industrial sectors.The key industrial sectors have the highest energy consumption in the industrial industry and dominate the changes in industrial carbon emissions.Their research is more directional and reference for promoting the transformation and development of the industrial industry Sex.(2)Index selection.After fully considering the R&D and investment of industrial enterprises such as energy saving and emission reduction,the introduction of seven indicators such as R&D efficiency,R&D intensity,and investment intensity to analyze the driving factors of decoupling in key industrial sectors can more accurately reflect the actual situation of decoupling of carbon emissions in various sectors.(3)Research methods.Based on the combination of staged analysis and long-term comprehensive analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined,and the quantitative analysis of each driving factor more intuitively reflects the driving role of each indicator.更多还原