【作者】 杨洁；

【导师】 张永强；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 自上世纪70年代后,我国畜牧业发展迅速,畜牧业产值实现40年连续增长,占农林牧渔总产值比重已由1978年的15%上升到2019年的27%。然而近两年来,一方面受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,猪肉价格快速上升,在替代效应和健康意识双重作用下,牛肉市场需求强劲。另一方面受新型冠状病毒肺炎影响,肉牛养殖场(户)普遍面临饲料原料成本上升,资金回收期延长等生产困境。在当前牛肉市场供需平衡被打破的现实背景下,如何科学布局肉牛养殖产业、解决资源配置区域性问题、促进肉牛养殖产业平稳高效发展,是当下亟需研究的重要问题。本文首先对中国肉牛养殖产业布局的现状进行梳理,再依据中国畜牧兽医统计年鉴中的数据,使用养殖布局指数、生产重心等工具,具体分析我国肉牛养殖产业布局的变动情况。根据我国肉牛养殖产业发展的实际情况,运用面板模型将中国肉牛养殖产业布局变动的影响因素分为全国和优势区两个层面进行分析,本文选择的主要影响因素有玉米产量、大豆产量、交通通达性、牛肉价格指数、消费市场潜力、城镇化水平、工资性收入比例、肉牛出栏率、肉牛规模饲养比率、环境规制。其次,比较优势理论是奠定肉牛养殖产业布局的基石。从大豆产量、消费市场潜力与农民固定资产投资能力的角度对中国肉牛养殖产业的区域比较优势进行比较。最后,提出我国肉牛养殖产业布局的优化目标、原则和政策建议。具体分析结论如下:(1)肉牛养殖布局整体上呈现中原优势区向其他优势区转移的基本趋势,全国层面呈现扩散模式。内蒙古和云南成为肉牛养殖新兴区域,肉牛养殖重心向西北方向移动。(2)消费市场潜力、城镇化水平与肉牛养殖产业布局之间关系为正相关,交通通达性、环境规制对肉牛养殖产业布局之间关系为负相关。总的来看,消费市场潜力因素对中原和西北优势区影响比较大,对东北和西北优势区影响比较小;交通通达性因素在四个优势区的作用都较为明显;环境规制因素在中原优势区与西北优势区的作用较为明显。(3)东北优势区大豆资源最为丰富,而消费市场潜力与农民固定资产投资能力方面,中原优势区处于最具优势地位。目前,大多数中国肉牛养殖优势省份在一定程度上存在肉牛养殖的资源禀赋优势,黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古、山东、河北、河南、贵州、广西、新疆在比较优势计算过程中至少有一个因素具有比较优势,是发展肉牛养殖产业科学合理的省份。(4)本研究存在的不足:一是由于肉牛出栏量数据的限制,研究的时间范围受到局限。此外,由于具体肉牛养殖优势县市的数据获取难度较大,研究未能落实到更微观的层面。二是杜宾模型进行空间面板数据分析效果不显著,本文的实证部分仅使用面板模型进行计算,没有考虑空间效应。未来希望再进一步扩充数据来源,更换空间矩阵种类再使用空间计量分析数据,能够得到更加科学的结果,提出更具体的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1970s,China’s animal husbandry has developed rapidly,and the output value of animal husbandry has grown continuously for 40 years,accounting for 15% of the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in 1978 and rising to 27% in 2019.However,in the past two years,due to the African Swine Fever epidemic,pork prices have risen rapidly,and beef market demand is strong due to the dual effects of substitution effect and health awareness.On the other hand,under the influence of COVID-19,beef cattle farms(farmers)generally face production difficulties such as rising feed raw material costs and extended fund recovery period.Under the current reality background that the balance between supply and demand in the beef market has been broken,how to scientifically arrange the beef cattle breeding industry,solve the regional problems of resource allocation,and promote the stable and efficient development of the beef cattle breeding industry is an important issue that needs to be studied at present.In this paper,the current situation of the beef cattle breeding industry layout in China was firstly sorted out,and then the changes of the beef cattle breeding industry layout in China were analyzed in detail by using tools such as breeding layout index and production center of gravity according to the data in China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Statistical Yearbook.According to the actual situation of beef cattle breeding industry development in our country,using the panel model on the influence factors of the Chinese beef cattle breeding industry layout change is divided into two aspects carries on the analysis the advantage and area,this paper choose the main influence factors are clear on the corn and soybean production,transportation,beef prices index,potential consumer market,urbanization level and wage income ratio,beef cattle slaughtering rate,ratio of beef cattle breeding scale,environmental regulation.Secondly,the theory of comparative advantage is the foundation of beef cattle breeding industry layout.The regional comparative advantages of beef cattle breeding industry in China were compared from the perspectives of soybean yield,consumer market potential and farmers’ investment ability of fixed assets.Finally,the optimization objectives,principles and policy suggestions of beef cattle breeding industry layout in China were put forward.The specific analysis conclusions are as follows :(1)Overall,the beef cattle breeding layout presents a basic trend of transferring from the dominant areas in China to other dominant areas,and the national level presents a diffusion pattern.Inner Mongolia and Yunnan became the emerging areas of beef cattle breeding,and the focus of beef cattle breeding moved to the northwest.(2)There is a positive correlation between consumer market potential,urbanization level and beef cattle breeding industry layout,while there is a negative correlation between transportation accessibility and environmental regulation and beef cattle breeding industry layout.In general,the consumer market potential factor has a greater impact on the Central Plains Advantage Area and the Northwest Advantage Area,but a smaller impact on the Northeast Advantage Area and Northwest Advantage Area.The factors of transportation accessibility play an obvious role in the four dominant areas.Environmental regulation factors play an obvious role in the Central Plains Advantage Area and the Northwest Advantage Area.(3)The Northeast Advantage Area has the most abundant soybean resources,while Central Plains Advantage Area has the most advantageous position in terms of consumer market potential and farmers’ investment ability of fixed assets.At present,most of the Chinese beef cattle breeding advantage provinces exist to a certain extent of beef cattle breeding resources endowment advantages,Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Guizhou,Guangxi,Xinjiang in the comparative advantage of at least one factors in the process of calculation has a comparative advantage,is scientific and reasonable development of beef cattle breeding industry of the province.(4)Shortcomings of this study: First,due to the limitation of beef cattle turnover data,the time range of the study is limited.In addition,due to the difficulty in obtaining data from specific beef cattle breeding advantaged counties and cities,the research has not been implemented at a more micro level.Second,the effect of the Durbin model on the spatial panel data analysis is not significant.The empirical part of this paper only uses the panel model to calculate,without considering the spatial effect.In the future,we hope to further expand data sources,change the types of spatial matrix and then use spatial econometric analysis data,so as to obtain more scientific results and put forward more specific policy suggestions.更多还原