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重庆互联网小贷逾期影响因素实证研究

Empirical Study on the Affecting Factors of the E Internet Small Loan Overdue in Chongqing

【作者】 周媛;

【导师】 张腾文;

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 , 金融学, 2019, 硕士

【摘要】 基于互联网技术发展起来的互联网小贷是近年来市场上关注度最高的新兴事物之一,出现之后迅速成为金融市场上炙手可热的新业务模式。重庆作为直辖市,凭借其区域优势和政策吸引力等,诞生了不少互联网小贷公司。而在2015年以后,受市场环境和风险问题的影响,大量的互联网小贷公司出现问题,开始更加重视风险管理。而在进行风险管理的时候,首先就要清楚影响逾期的主要因素有哪些,才能够对症下药,采取有效的措施来实施风险管理。关于逾期率的研究在相关领域还不算热门课题,仅有部分研究室采用定性方法来进行研究的,缺少有效的数据支撑,所以对于互联网小贷逾期影响因素的实证研究就显得非常的重要。本文对于逾期影响因素的实证研究,通过对重庆市互联网小贷逾期现状进行了分析,然后结合相关文献,分析了互联网小贷逾期的影响因素;选择了行业内比较具有代表性的小贷平台,并于2019年5月抓取2015年12月至2019年3月的客户风险信息数据,以此作为本文实证分析的样本数据,参考相关文献,并结合抓取数据的科目,选择了8个影响因素来进行回归分析,了解不同因素对互联网小贷逾期率的影响,寻找其中最为关键的要素,然后据此来作为构建中国互联网小贷风险管理体系的参考,也对重庆市的互联网小贷风险管理水平提升提出相应的对策建议。本文在研究之前相关文献的基础上,选择了与以往不同的研究角度,针对互联网小贷的逾期进行研究,相对于以前较多研究的违约风险来说,更加适用于所选的互联网小贷平台,这是因为逾期问题比违约问题发生频率更高。另外在所选案例上有别于其他文献,没有选择全国性的互联网小贷平台,而选择了重庆地区比较具有行业代表性的公司,从而使得本文的研究更具有地域针对性,结合笔者的工作,能有更好的现实指导作用。通过本文的实证研究,可以得出以下研究结论:小贷客户的学历越低,借款逾期率就会越高;小贷客户工作收入越高,其逾期率就越低;借款金额越高,逾期率越高。为了防止逾期风险不断加大,也需要根据互联网小贷的特征采取相应的措施,主要包括建立黑名单制度、完善征信系统、结合大数据进行风险管理、通过社交群体来防范风险以及分类处置以降低互联网小贷风险。

【Abstract】 Internet small loan,developed based on Internet technology,is one of the most concerned emerging things in the market in recent years and has quickly become a hot new business model in the financial market after its emergence.As a municipality directly under the central government,chongqing has given birth to many Internet small loan companies by virtue of its regional advantages and policy attraction.However,after 2015,influenced by the market environment and risks,a large number of Internet small loan companies had problems and began to pay more attention to risk management.In the process of risk management,it is necessary to understand the main factors that affect the overdue time,so as to take effective measures to implement risk management.The research on overdue rate is not a hot topic in relevant fields.Only some research offices adopt qualitative methods to carry out the research,which lacks effective data support.Therefore,the empirical research on the influencing factors of overdue Internet small loans is very important.Based on the empirical research on the factors affecting the overdue payment,this paper analyzes the current situation of overdue payment of Internet small loans in chongqing,and then analyzes the influencing factors of overdue payment of Internet small loans by combining relevant literatures.Chose the industry is the typical small credit platform,and in May 2019 fetching between December 2015 and March 2019 customer risk information data,as the empirical analysis of sample data,this paper reference relevant literature,combined with the data subject,select the eight factors to regression analysis,to understand the influence of different factors on small loans Yu Qi Lv Internet,looking for one of the most critical factors,and accordingly as building as the reference for credit risk management system in China’s Internet,Internet of chongqing also small credit risk management level put forward the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions.Based on relevant literature before the study,this paper chose a different research perspective from the previous one to study the overdue Internet small loan.Compared with the default risk that had been studied more in the past,this paper is more suitable for the selected Internet small loan platform,because the overdue problem occurs more frequently than the default problem.In addition,the selected case is different from other literatures.Instead of choosing a national Internet small loan platform,I chose a representative company in chongqing,which makes the study of this paper more regionally targeted.Combined with the author’s work,it can play a better guiding role in reality.Through the empirical study of this paper,the following conclusions can be drawn: the lower the degree of small loan customers,the higher the loan delinquency rate will be;The higher the working income,the lower the overdue rate.The higher the loan amount,the higher the overdue rate.In order to prevent the increasing overdue risks,corresponding measures should be taken according to the characteristics of Internet small loans,including the establishment of a blacklist system,the improvement of the credit investigation system,the risk management based on big data,the prevention of risks through social groups and the classification of disposal to reduce the risks of Internet small loans.

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