【作者】 吴婷婷；

【导师】 蒲勇健；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的快速发展,商业地产取得了巨大进步,一线二线的商业地产已经饱和,三线四线的商业地产潜力巨大,新一轮商业地产的热潮开始出现。传统的重资产运营模式不再能够帮助企业在市场中获得优势,一些房地产企业已经开始通过吸引投资机构等投资来尝试转型轻资产运营模式,其做法是投资机构出钱出地,房地产开发企业进行运营管理,修建好的商业地产项目只租不售,其租金净收益按一定比例分成。在当前经济环境中,重资产运营模式向轻资产运营模式转型的试验已成为中国商业地产可否健康发展的首要任务。想要促进新运营模式在中国发展,就必须做到轻资产运营模式的商业地产项目开发之前所给出的可行性研究能够被投资机构所认同,而报告中的所给出的项目的价值评估是整个项目的关键。在以往商业地产项目进行价值评估时,很大程度上依赖于评估人员的主观判断,缺乏对于风险因素的考虑,使用传统方法评估商业地产项目投资价值存在明显的问题,因此选用一种比较科学而且适合项目本身的评价方法刻不容缓。本文引入了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR方法来对净现值(NPV)法进行修正,通过构建VaR+NPV模型,将证券风险管理中常用的VaR理论添加到商业地产项目的价值评估当中,对新运营模式的项目进行量化评估。具体做法是首先将项目折现率以及运营期内的现金净流量作为风险变量,通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法将项目整体模拟结果用VaR值以及平均值表示出来;其次基于房地产开发企业和投资机构两个不同的角度将分别所得的净现值用相同方法进行测算。本文还运用了对比法,首先将商业地产项目、投资机构以及商业地产企业获得的净现值用传统净现值法计算出来;其次运用基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR方法模拟出商业地产项目、投资机构以及房地产开发企业净现值的VaR值以及平均值;最后是将两种方法的结果进行对比分析,找到导致不同结果的原因。本文通过深入研究,论证基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR方法比传统的净现值方法更加适用于评价轻资产运营模式下的商业地产项目。研究结果表明:(1)在现如今的经济环境当中,商业地产向轻资产运营模式转型是非常有必要的。轻资产运营模式能够以更少的投入自有资金而扩大房地产企业的竞争优势,如今正是发展三四线城市的时机,相比于一二线城市,三四线城市租金回报比较高,轻资产运营模式能够使企业抓住发展的机遇。(2)VaR方法可用于房地产行业以衡量商业地产项目的风险价值。尽管VaR方法是用于度量金融领域中金融市场风险的风险度量工具,但是通过本文理论上的分析以及案例研究,可以得知VaR方法也可以用于研究房地产行业。不仅如此,该方法已广泛应用于各个领域,可以说只要是领域需要进行风险衡量,VaR方法都值得尝试。(3)详细阐述了VaR方法的概念、计算原理、计算方法等,归纳总结了商业地产风险价值评估中的三个关键参数:租金净收益、折现率、收益期限,通过引入了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR方法来对净现值法进行修正,并将修正后的模型应用于实际的商业房地产案例,结合案例提出了过程中需要注意的问题以及如何求出参数的建议。(4)将传统的净现值方法获得的净现值结果与基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR方法修正的净现值方法获得的净现值结果进行比较,论证出后者评估结果更加科学,不仅相较于传统净现值法更加符合市场波动的实际情况,而且还为投资机构的决策提供了更为灵活的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the economy,commercial real estate has made great progress,the first-tier and second-tier commercial real estate has been saturated,the third-tier and fourth-tier commercial real estate has great potential,and a new round of commercial real estate boom has begun to emerge.The traditional heavy asset operation model can no longer help companies gain an advantage in the market.Some real estate companies have begun to try to transform the asset light operation model by attracting investment institutions’ investment.The approach is to invest money and land,and then real estate development companies Operation and management.The constructed commercial real estate project is only leased but not sold,and its net rental income is divided according to a certain percentage.In the current economic environment,the experiment of operating model transitioning has become the primary task for the healthy development of China’s commercial real estate.If you want to promote the development of new operating models in China,before the development of commercial real estate projects with asset-light operating models,you must ensure that the feasibility study given can be recognized by investment institutions,and the value evaluation of the project given in the report Is the key to the whole project.In the past,the value evaluation of commercial real estate projects relied heavily on the subjective judgment of the appraisers.The appraisers lacked consideration of risk factors.Therefore,there are obvious problems in using traditional methods to evaluate the investment value of commercial real estate projects.We need to choose a comparison A scientific and suitable evaluation method for the project itself is urgent.This paper introduces the VaR method based on Monte Carlo simulation to modify the net present value method,adds the VaR theory commonly used in securities risk management to the investment decision of commercial real estate projects,and conducts commercial real estate projects under the asset-light operation model.Firstly,we use the project discount rate and the net cash flow during the operating period as risk VaR values,and use the Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the change in the net present value caused by the change in the risk VaR values.The simulation results are expressed by VaR values and mean values.Secondly,we use the same method to calculate the net present value simulation results obtained by real estate development enterprises and investment institutions.This article also uses the contrast method.Firstly,we calculated the NPV of commercial real estate projects,the NPV of investment institutions,and the NPV of commercial real estate companies using the traditional NPV method.Secondly,we use the VaR method based on Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the NPV of commercial real estate projects,the NPV of investment institutions,and the NPV of commercial real estate companies.Finally,we compare and analyze the results of the two methods.In this article,through in-depth research,we demonstrate that the VaR method based on Monte Carlo simulation is more suitable for evaluating commercial real estate projects under the asset-light operation mode than the traditional net present value method.The research results show that:(1)In the current economic environment,commercial real estate should vigorously develop an asset-light operation model.First,the development of an asset-light operating model expands the competitive advantage of real estate companies with less investment in their own funds.Second,now is the time to develop third-and fourth-tier cities.Compared with first-and second-tier cities,rental returns in third-and fourth-tier cities compare The high and light asset operation model can effectively solve the problem of low funds for commercial real estate companies and seize the opportunity for development.(2)The VaR method can be used in the real estate industry to measure the value-at-risk of commercial real estate projects.Although the VaR method is a risk measurement tool for measuring financial market risks in the financial field,through theoretical analysis and empirical research,we can know that the method is also applicable to the real estate industry.This method has been widely used in VaR values fields.It can be said that as long as the risk measurement is required in the field,the VaR method is worth trying.(3)We elaborated the concept,calculation principles and calculation methods of the VaR method,summarized and summarized three key parameters in the value evaluation of commercial real estate at risk,and introduced the VaR method based on Monte Carlo simulation to the net present value The method is revised and the revised model is applied to actual commercial real estate cases.Based on the cases,issues that need attention in the process and suggestions on how to obtain parameters are proposed.(4)Comparing the evaluation results obtained by the traditional NPV method with the evaluation results obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation-based modified VaR method,and demonstrating that the latter’s evaluation results are more scientific,not only compared with the traditional The net present value method is more in line with the actual situation of market fluctuations,and it also provides a more flexible reference for the decision-making of investment institutions.更多还原