【作者】 吴海燕；

【导师】 魏陆；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 公共管理（MPA）（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济社会发展进入“新常态”,我国经济从高速增长转为中高速增长,财政收入增长也相应放缓。但是,我国老龄化时代已经来临,国家财政刚性支出日益增长,债务水平居高不下,财政可持续发展面临着前所未有的挑战。在这样的大背景下,十八届三中全会历史性地提出了深化财税体制改革的决定,“要求建立现代财政制度”,“审核预算的重点由平衡状态、赤字规模向支出预算和政策拓展”。我国一直以来遵守的年度预算平衡规则被打破了,开始引入三年期滚动预算管理,今后政府预算将纳入到中期甚至更长时期内来实现平衡,从而使我国的公共财政体系可持续发展。自20世纪80年代以来,中期预算已经在西方国家特别是OECD国家得到了广泛使用。中期预算不仅是一项预算管理制度的变革,同时也是政府行政管理理念的革新,是推动国家治理现代化的一项重要手段。中期预算更加注重财政总量纪律、强化预算与政策、规划之间的紧密性,从而有利于预算资源的有效分配以及运营绩效。相对于西方发达国家,我国中期预算规划只是处在一个刚刚起步和成长的阶段,虽然国内部分省市和地区对编制中期预算有过一些尝试,但效果并不是很明显。笔者作为基层地方政府财政工作者,长期从事财政预算收支的编制工作,希望通过对中期预算的理论和实践研究,探寻一条适合我国地方政府编制中期预算的具体路径。本文通过对年度预算平衡理论、渐进预算理论和周期预算平衡理论等内容进行研究,指出中期预算是一种较年度预算更为先进的预算管理模式,他能使政府决策者做出更好更优的选择。根据国家关于中期财政规划的部署要求,笔者对上海市M区实施中期财政规划试点情况进行调查研究,发现地方政府推进中期财政规划的效果并不理想,其原因既有外部环境的问题,也有自身的问题,主要包括实施中期预算的法律效力不足、中期预算理念尚未形成、中期财政规划保障机制有待进一步完善、预算与规划、政策紧密度不够、中期财政收入预测困难以及中期财政支出约束力不强等六个方面。为此,笔者通过借鉴国外实施中期预算的经验,对澳大利亚和美国两个国家开展中期预算的做法和措施进行深度研究,并就存在的六大问题逐一进行剖析,提出要建立完善的中期预算运作机制和提高中期预算管理水平两方面的对策,为我国地方政府编制中长期财政规划工作提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 With China’s economic and social development enters a new normal,the economic growth from high-speed to medium-high-speed growth,and revenue growth slowed down accordingly.However,the aging era has arrived,with the increasing of state financial rigidity expenditure and high levels of debt,the finance sustainable development is now facing unprecedented challenges.Under this background,a historical decision to deepen fiscal and tax reform has been raised in the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the CPC,including "establishment of a modern financial system" and "budget review changes focuses from the equilibrium state and scale of the deficit to appropriation budget and policy ".The annual budget rules that our country has long complied with have been broken,China will introduce a three-year rolling financial planning,and the future government budget will be incorporated into the medium-term and even longer period to achieve balance,so that the sustainable development of China’s public finance system.Since the 1980 s,the medium-term budget has been widely used in the Western countries,especially OECD countries.Medium-term budget is not only a change in the budget management system,but also the innovative idea of government administration,and an important means to promote the modernization of national governance.It pays more attention to medium-term budget total fiscal discipline,strengthens tightness among budget,policy,and the planning,thereby facilitates efficient allocation of budgetary resources and operational performance.With respect to the Western countries,China’s medium-term budgetary planning is only just in the beginning and growth phase.Although some domestic provinces and regions have made some attempts on the preparation of the interim budget,the effect is not obvious.The author,as a worker of base layer of local government finance engaged in the preparation of the budget revenue and expenditure,hopes to explore a path suited to China’s specific preparation of the interim local government budgets by studying medium-term budget theory.Based on the research of annual budget balance theory,progressive budget theory and balanced budget cycle theory,this paper noted that the medium-term budget is a more advanced management mode than annual budget,which can assist the government decision-makers to make better choice.According to the deployment requirements on national medium-term financial planning,the author made a study on the medium-term fiscal planning of M district in Shanghai,it found that the effect medium-term financial planning promoted by the local government was not ideal,which resulted from not only its external environment problems,but also its own problems.The problems reflected in six aspects,including the insufficient legal effect for the implementation of the medium-term budget,immature medium-term budget concept,medium-term fiscal planning security mechanism to be further improved,low compactness of budgeting,planning and policy,uneasy to forecast the medium-term revenue,and weak restriction on medium-term fiscal expenditure.Therefore,by drawing on the foreign countries’ experience of implement medium-term budget,the author carried out a research on medium-term budgetary practices and measures of Australia and the United States,and analyzed the existing six problems one by one,proposed two measures which are establishing a sound medium-term budgetary operation mechanisms and improving mid-level budget management,which in addition provided reference about long-term financial planning for local government.更多还原