【作者】 刘洁；

【导师】 付新平；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 应用经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 跨境电商具有便捷性和高效性,符合时代潮流,成为国际经济贸易的新增长点。即使金融危机之后我国对外贸易处于低迷状态时,跨境电商也保持年均超过30%的高速增长,2008年到2018年,我国跨境电商交易额从不到1万亿到突破8万亿。跨境物流是跨境电商发展的基础和条件,在跨境电商高速发展的形势下,跨境物流是否也得到相应的协调发展,两者之间呈现怎样的互动关系?这都是业界普遍关注的问题。本文以此为切入点,系统研究我国跨境电商与跨境物流的协同性,并构建协同性测度模型。本文的主要研究内容如下:首先,系统阐述了跨境电商相关理论、动态国际贸易理论和协同学理论等理论基础,分析了我国跨境电商与跨境物流之间的协同发展现状与协同缺失问题。其次,运用SPSS计量统计分析软件对跨境电商和跨境物流进行相关性分析,对跨境电商和跨境物流进行回归分析,找出其变化趋势和函数特点;运用灰色关联分析方法对两者之间的相互经济影响程度进行分析,计算出跨境电商与跨境物流各相关因素之间的关联程度,从而确定协同性测度的分析变量。第三,构建跨境电商和跨境物流综合评价指标体系,利用因子分析法,找出衡量跨境电商发展水平与跨境物流发展水平的主因子,构建跨境电商和跨境物流的静态协同性测度和动态协同协同性测度模型。第四,利用我国2010-2017年跨境电商与跨境物流数据对模型的有效性进行验证。最后,对跨境电商和跨境物流之间进行协同性测度,对各阶段跨境电商与跨境物流的协同性进行评价分析,并出促进我国跨境电商和跨境物流发展的政策建议。结果显示,我国跨境电商与跨境物流之间具有高度经济相关关系,跨境物流子系统中的快递业务量、交通固定资产投资、机场国际货邮吞吐量与跨境电商子系统经济关联性较大,跨境电商子系统中的居民人均可支配收入、社会消费品零售总额、网上零售总额与跨境物流子系统经济关联性较大,跨境电商与跨境物流之间的静态协同度逐年增加,动态协同度大于1,跨境电商与跨境物流的整体协同发展程度呈上升趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cross-border e-commerce is convenient and efficient,in line with the trend of the times,and has become a new growth point in international economic and trade.Even if China’s foreign trade is in a downturn after the financial crisis,cross-border e-commerce has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 30%.From2008 to 2018,China’s cross-border e-commerce transaction volume has gone from less than 1 trillion to over 8 trillion.Cross-border logistics is the basis and condition for the development of cross-border e-commerce.Under the situation of rapid development of cross-border e-commerce,whether cross-border logistics has also been coordinated and developed?How do the above two interact? This is a common focus in the industry.This thesis takes this as a starting point,systematically studies the synergy between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics in China,and builds a collaborative measurement model.The main contents of this thesis are as follows: Firstly,the theoretical basis of cross-border e-commerce related theory,dynamic international trade theory and synergy theory is systematically expounded,and the problem that status quo and lack of synergy between China’s cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics is analyzed.Secondly,using SPSS measurement and statistical analysis software to analyze the correlation between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics,and carry out regression analysis on cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics to find out its changing trend and function characteristics;the gray correlation analysis method is used to analyze the degree of mutual economic impact between the two,and the degree of correlation between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics related factors is calculated to determine the analytical variables of the synergistic measure.Thirdly,this thesis constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics,and uses factor analysis to find the main factors to measure the level of cross-border e-commerce development and cross-border logistics development,and builds cross-border e-commerce and cross-border static synergy measure and dynamic collaborative synergy measure model of logistics.Fourthly,the effectiveness of the model is verified by using cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics data from 2010 to 2017 in China.Finally,the collaborative measurement between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics is carried out,and the synergy between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics at each stage is evaluated and analyzed,and the optimization of supply structure,innovation of business model,and improvement of information platform,and optimization of the distribution system and other proposals to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce in China are proposed.The results show that there is a high degree of economic correlation between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics in China.Express business volume,transportation fixed assets investment,airport international postal throughput in cross-border logistics subsystem are closely related to cross-border e-commerce subsystem.The per capita disposable income of residents,total retail sales of consumer goods,total online retail sales in cross-border e-commerce subsystem are closely related to the cross-border logistics subsystem.The static synergy rate is increasing year by year,and the dynamic synergy degree is greater than 1.The overall coordinated development degree of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics is on the rise.更多还原