【作者】 刘震；

【导师】 刘兴荣；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 公共卫生与预防医学·劳动卫生与环境卫生学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障和经济带,黄河流域的生态保护和高质量发展是国家重大战略,当前黄河流域空气质量长期处于较为严峻的状态,因此本文选取2015-2019年黄河流域9省会城市的空气质量和PM₁₀、PM_2.5等空气污染物数据,结合2015-2018年9省会城市社会经济发展指标和基线健康资料,运用空气质量指数、灰色关联度分析法和泊松回归模型,对黄河流域9省会城市的空气质量状况、社会经济影响因素及空气污染物造成的人群健康效应进行了分析与评价,从而为制定环境健康政策、促进各市可持续发展等提供理论依据,本文研究结果如下:（1）2015-2019年黄河流域9省会城市除西安、太原外,其他7市空气质量总体趋于改善,西安、太原2019年AQI年均值高于2015年,空气质量有所恶化。PM₁₀、PM_2.5和O₃是黄河流域9省会城市的主要空气污染物。9市AQI季均值均表现为“冬高秋低”,11-次年2月为AQI月均值高峰期,4-9月为低峰期。9市PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO、NO₂月均值呈“U”型分布,除成都市外其他8省会城市SO₂月均值呈“U”型变化,成都市SO₂月均值全年维持在较低水平,9省会城市O₃月均值呈倒“U”型变化。（2）人口因素、经济因素、交通因素和城市绿化水平均对黄河流域9省会城市的空气质量有一定影响,其中影响兰州市空气质量的首要因素为年末常住人口,第一产业生产总值是影响成都、西安、郑州和济南空气质量的首要因素,第二产业生产总值是西宁市空气质量的首要影响因素,人均GDP是呼和浩特空气质量的首要影响因素,公园绿地面积是银川和太原市空气质量的首要影响因素。（3）SO₂和NO₂浓度每升高10μg?m^-3人群死亡率增加的百分数要高于PM₁₀、PM_2.5和O₃,但空气污染物的健康效应还与污染物浓度超标情况、人口基数和疾病死亡率有关,因此对黄河流域9省会城市进行健康效应评价,得出PM₁₀、PM_2.5和O₃造成的健康效应要高于SO₂和NO₂,空气污染物对心血管疾病死亡的影响要高于对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。总体来看,当前黄河流域9省会城市SO₂和NO₂的浓度已接近WHO指导值,影响人群健康的主要空气因素为PM₁₀、PM_2.5和O₃,应将PM₁₀、PM_2.5和O₃作为空气污染防治的重点,在符合各城市发展现状的基础上,逐步严格标准限值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important ecological barrier and economic belt in China,the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is a major national strategy.At present,the air quality in the Yellow River Basin has been in a relatively severe state for a long time.Therefore,this article selected the air quality,data of PM₁₀,PM_2.5 and other air pollutants of the 9 provincial capitals of the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2019,combined with the social and economic development indicators and baseline health data of 9 provincial capitals from 2015 to 2018,using air quality index,gray correlation analysis and Poisson regression model to analyze and evaluate the air quality status,socio-economic influencing factors and the population health effects of air pollutants in the nine capital cities of the Yellow River Basin.The purpose of the research is to provide a theoretical basis for formulating environmental health policies and promoting the sustainable development of cities.The results of this paper are as follows:（1）From 2015 to 2019,except for Xi’an and Taiyuan,the air quality of the 9provincial capitals in the Yellow River Basin improved.The annual average AQI in Xi’an and Taiyuan in 2019 was higher than that in 2015,which showed the air quality was worse.PM₁₀,PM_2.5 and O₃ were the main air pollutants in the nine capital cities of the Yellow River Basin.The seasonal values of AQI in 9 cities were“high in winter and low in autumn”.The monthly peak values of AQI in 9 cities ranged from November to February,and the trough values ranged from April to September.The monthly averages of PM_2.5,PM₁₀,CO,and NO₂ in 9 cities showed a"U"-shaped distribution.The monthly averages of SO₂ in 8 provincial capital cities except Chengdu showed a"U"-shaped change.The monthly averages of SO₂ in Chengdu remained at a low level throughout the year.The monthly average of O₃ in the 9 provincial capital cities showed an inverted"U"-shaped change.（2）Demographic factors,economic factors,traffic factors and urban greening levels had a certain impact on the air quality of the nine capital cities in the Yellow River Basin.The primary factor affecting the air quality in Lanzhou was the permanent population at the end of the year.The GDP of the primary industry was the primary factor affecting air quality in Chengdu,Xi’an,Zhengzhou and Jinan.The GDP of the secondary industry was the primary influencing factor of Xining’s air qualit y.GDP per capita was the primary influencing factor of air quality in Hohhot.The area of park green space was the primary influencing factor of the air quality in Yinchuan and Taiyuan.（3）Compared with PM₁₀,PM_2.5 and O₃,for every 10μg?m^-3 increased in SO₂ and NO₂ concentration,the population mortality rate increased by a higher percentage.However,the health effects of air pollutants were also related to excessive pollutant concentrations,population base and disease mortality.Therefore,after evaluating the health effects of nine provincial capital cities in the Yellow River Basin,it is concluded that the health effects caused by PM₁₀,PM_2.5 and O₃ were higher than SO₂ and NO₂,and the impact of air pollutants on deaths from cardiovascular diseases was higher than that of deaths from respiratory diseases.Overall,the current SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations in the nine capital cities of the Yellow River Basin were close to the WHO guidelines.The main air factors that affected the health of the population were PM₁₀,PM_2.5 and O₃,which should be regarded as the focus of air pollution prevention and control,and the standard limits should be gradually tightened on the basis of compliance with the development of each city.更多还原