【作者】 杨阳；

【导师】 宋鸿芳；

【作者基本信息】 河北经贸大学 ， 工程管理（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,地下综合管廊作为兼具安全性、经济性及社会性的基础设施,拥有包括保证道路功能、高效利用地下空间、方便管线管理等多种优势于一体,在国家政策支持下,其发展逐步进入快车道。鉴于综合管廊建设周期长、建设运营投资大等特性,为进一步缓解综合管廊建设、运营带给地方财政的压力,国家陆续出台相关政策规范,鼓励地方政府通过实施综合管廊PPP项目、吸引社会资本投资来推进各地综合管廊建设。目前,综合管廊PPP项目运营风险管理面临多方面问题,例如相关运营规范标准及经验的匮乏;因较长的运营时间,一般为几十年甚至上百年,导致运营风险因素种类较多且随时间变化;综合管廊PPP项目运营涉及多方主体、多种利益诉求等,这些都对综合管廊PPP项目运营风险管理提出挑战。因此,本文针对综合管廊PPP项目运营风险进行评价研究尤为重要,不仅可以分析S市H综合管廊PPP项目运营风险实际情况,还可以指导同类型项目运营风险管控,一定程度上也可以完善综合管廊PPP项目运营风险管理相关理论。本文首先介绍了综合管廊PPP项目运营风险管理等有关基础理论。随后以S市H综合管廊PPP项目为研究对象,利用层次分析法及模糊综合评价法等研究方法建立运营风险评价模型,对S市H综合管廊PPP项目的运营风险展开评价研究。评价过程中,首先通过查阅大量文献资料及听取专家意见建议等多种方式,调整形成了S市H综合管廊PPP项目运营风险清单;后基于系统性等原则,构建了S市H综合管廊PPP项目运营风险评价指标体系,该体系包含4个准则层指标、22个方案层指标;运营风险评价模型建立主要是先用层次分析法确定指标权重、后用模糊综合评价法进行评价;最后,针对中等风险的评价结果及不同风险因素的评价情况等进行简要分析,提出了S市H综合管廊PPP项目运营风险防控的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,as a security,economic and social infrastructure,the underground utility tunnel has many advantages including ensuring the traffic function,efficient use of underground space,convenient pipeline management and so on.With the support of national policies,its development has gradually entered the fast lane.In view of the characteristics of long construction cycle and large investment in construction and operation of the underground utility tunnel,in order to alleviate the pressure on the local finance brought by the construction and operation of the underground utility tunnel,the state has issued relevant policies and norms to encourage the local government to promote the construction of the underground utility tunnel by implementing the PPP project of the underground utility tunnel attracting social capital investment.At present,the operation risk management of the underground utility tunnel PPP project is facing many problems,such as the lack of relevant operation standards and experience;Due to the long operation time,which is usually decades or even hundreds of years,the operation risk factors are varied and change with time.The operation of the underground utility tunnel PPP project of the comprehensive pipe gallery involves multiple subjects and various interest demands,which all pose challenges to the operation risk management of the PPP project of the underground utility tunnel.Therefore,it is particularly important to evaluate and study the operation risk of the underground utility tunnel PPP project in this paper.It can not only analyze the actual situation of the operation risk of the H underground utility tunnel PPP project in S City,but also guide the operation risk control of the same type of project,and improve the relevant theories of the operation risk management of the underground utility tunnel PPP project to a certain extent.Firstly,the paper introduces the operation risk management of the underground utility tunnel PPP project and other related basic theories.Secondly,taking the H underground utility tunnel PPP project in S city as the research object,using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and other research methods to establish the operation risk evaluation model,and carry out the evaluation research on the operation risk of the H underground utility tunnel PPP project in S city.In the evaluation process,the operation risk list of H underground utility tunnel PPP project in S city was adjusted and formed by consulting a large number of literature materials and listening to expert opinions and suggestions.Then,based on the principle of systematical,the operation risk evaluation index system of H underground utility tunnel PPP project in S city is constructed,which includes four criterion level indexes and twenty-two scheme level indexes.At first,the establishment of operation risk evaluation model is to determine the index weight by the analytic hierarchy process,and then to evaluate by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the paper briefly analyzes the evaluation results of medium risk and the evaluation of different risk factors,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the operation risk prevention and control of H underground integrated pipe gallery PPP project in S city.更多还原