【作者】 王达；

【导师】 赵永华；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 土地工程学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着经济社会的快速发展以及城镇化水平的不断提高,我国耕地资源在不断地减少。在人口持续增长的大背景下,粮食消费和需求也将随之增加,且我国耕地资源、粮食生产和人口在空间分布上存在着一定的差异性。因此,研究耕地—粮食—人口系统的时空变化特征及其耦合关系,对于保障我国粮食安全、合理制定人口及农业相关政策具有一定的理论意义和现实参考价值。研究基于我国2009—2018年耕地面积、粮食产量以及人口数量等基础数据,通过构建重心模型、耕地压力指数模型等,研究了近10年来我国耕地—粮食—人口系统的时空变化特征及其耦合关系,并分析了反映系统整体情况的耕地压力指数时空变化特征。主要结论有以下几点:(1)研究期内,我国耕地面积呈减小趋势,粮食产量和人口数量均呈增长趋势;在空间变化上,耕地面积表现为“西增东减”,粮食产量为“北增南减”,人口则表现为“全国俱增唯东北减”。(2)我国耕地资源、粮食产量和人口数量在空间分布上存在着一定的差异性,表现为:粮食产量较高的耕地主要分布在东部黑龙江、山东、河南省份,数量较少,大部分粮食生产能力较低的耕地分布在中西部地区,致使粮食生产存在显著的空间分布差异;北方粮食产量占比远高于南方,但是南方人口多于北方,致使我国粮食生产与消费存在着巨大的空间不一致性。(3)研究期内,我国耕地、粮食、人口重心总体上向不同的方向移动,耕地重心呈“西进北移”的趋势,粮食重心呈“北上东移”的趋势,人口重心在“东北—西南”方向上移动。三者移动方向的不同反映了我国耕地、粮食、人口在区域波动变化上的不一致性,这将进一步加大三者在空间分布上的差异。(4)耕地、粮食、人口重心年均移动距离大小关系为粮食>人口>耕地,说明三者的数量在区域波动变化方面,也存在粮食>人口>耕地的关系;在三者重心相互距离的大小关系上,耕地—粮食重心距离相对较小,且呈减小趋势,反映了耕地资源对于粮食生产的基础性作用。(5)研究期内,我国大部分地区耕地压力呈减小趋势,但是,出现了耕地压力较大的省份其耕地压力呈增加趋势,耕地压力较小的省份耕地压力呈减小趋势的“极化”现象;在空间分布特征上,各省份耕地压力总体上表现为“北低南高”和“东西高中部低”的态势。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,with the rapid development of the economy and the continuous improvement of the urbanization,the cultivated land resources in China are decreasing.So,the grain consumption and demand will be increasing as a result of continuous population growth.Meanwhile,there are some differences in the spatial distribution among cultivated land resources,grain production and population.Therefore,the study of the spatial and temporal change characteristics and their coupling relationships of the cultivated land—grain yield—population system will be crutial,and it will have some useful theoretical and practical reference value for ensuring Chinese food security and rationally formulating population and agricultural policies.The research is based on the fundamental data of Chinese cultivated land area,grain yield,and population in 2009-2018.By using the center of gravity model,the cultivated land pressure index model and so,the research has concluded the spatial and temporal variation and the coupling relationship of the cultivated land—grain yield—population system of China in the past 10 years and analyzed the characteristics of the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land pressure index which reflects the overall change of the system.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the study period,the cultivated land area in China shows a decreasing trend,while the grain yield and population both show an increasing trend.From the spatial change perspective,the cultivated land area shows a "increasing in the west and decreasing in the east" state,the grain yield shows a "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" state,and the population shows a "increasing in all regions of China apart from the northeast region " state.(2)There are some differences in the spatial distribution of cultivated land resources,grain yield and population in China.It mainly manifests as follows: the cultivated land with higher grain yield mainly distributes in several eastern provinces,but the amount is small.Most cultivated land with lower grain yield distributes in the central and western regions.It causes the significant spatial differences in grain yield.The proportion of grain yield in the north of China is much higher than that in the south,but the population in the south is larger than that in the north.It results a huge spatial inconsistency between Chinese grain production and consumption.(3)During the study period,the center of gravity of cultivated land,grain yield and population in China generally moved in different directions.The cultivated land center of gravity moved from west to north,the grain yield center of gravity moved from north to east,the population center of gravity moved in the direction of northeast and southwest.The different moving directions of the three centers of gravity reflect the inconsistencies in the regional fluctuations of cultivated land,grain yield and population in China,which will further increase the differences in the spatial distribution among the cultivated land,grain yield and population in China.(4)The relationship among the annual average distance of the center of gravity of cultivated land,grain yield and population is grain yield> population> cultivated land,which shows that the number of the three also has such a relationship same as the regional fluctuations.In terms of the distance among the three centers of gravity,the distance between the center of gravity of cultivated land and grain yield is relatively small and tends to decrease,which reflects the fundamental role of cultivated land resources for grain yield.(5)During the study period,the cultivated land pressure in most areas of China shows a decreasing trend.However,there is a state of "polarization": the provinces with large cultivated land pressure shows an increasing trend,while the provinces with small cultivated land pressure shows a decreasing trend.From the spatial distribution perspective,the cultivated land pressure in each province generally shows a situation of "lower in the north and higher in the south" and "lower in the east and west,and higher in the middle.更多还原