【作者】 李彤；

【导师】 李武选；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 统计学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国社会的发展,旅游业已成为发展势头最强、规模最大的产业之一。健全的交通运输体系和完善的综合交通运输网是旅游业发展的必要载体,是联系旅游需求与供给的纽带,对旅游经济的发展、旅游产业聚集以及区域旅游空间格局的形成产生了重要影响。由于丝绸之路经济带沿线省市的自然环境、地理区位、社会经济水平的不同,旅游经济发展不均衡性明显,同时交通运输布局存在差异,致使各省市的旅游经济和交通运输可能存在不匹配的发展状况。因此,有必要对丝绸之路经济带区域内交通运输与旅游经济的发展情况和耦合协调程度进行分析研究。本文以丝绸之路经济带沿线九省市为研究对象,首先通过构建评价指标体系,运用熵权法分析各省市交通运输和旅游经济的发展情况,然后通过耦合协调模型,从时间趋势和空间演变两方面测度并探讨各省市两大系统的耦合协调程度,最后运用地理探测模型,进一步探究影响地区耦合协调度的因素以及影响程度,并基于研究结论提出相关对策建议。研究结果如下:(1)2007—2018年期间,九省市的交通运输与旅游经济的发展水平在不断提高。其中,四川和陕西的交通运输发展水平较高,广西、重庆、云南、甘肃和新疆的发展水平居中,发展水平较低的为宁夏和青海两地。旅游经济发展水平较高的地区为云南和四川,处于中等水平的有广西、陕西、重庆和新疆,而发展水平较低的地区包括甘肃、青海和宁夏。(2)2007—2018年,交通运输—旅游经济耦合协调度呈现出逐年递增的上升态势,但整体协调程度较低,还没达到较为理想的协调发展状态。从总体区域的角度看,交通运输与旅游经济耦合协调度总体向协调化演变,但分层现象比较明显,西南地区的协调程度普遍高于西北地区。区域空间分布呈现出“由东向西,由南向北”递减的演变特征。(3)通过因子探测,发现影响耦合协调程度的因子主要为交通基础设施建设主导型、旅游要素主导型和旅游行业规模主导型。通过交互作用探测,发现交互作用的影响力普遍强于单个因子。大部分地区的交互作用为双因子增强的类型;少部分地区的因子交互作用为非线性增强类型,呈现出“1+1>2”的增强效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of our society,tourism has become one of the industries with the strongest development momentum and the largest scale.A sound transportation system and comprehensive transportation network are the necessary carriers for the development of tourism industry,the link between tourism demand and supply,and have an important impact on the development of tourism economy,the aggregation of tourism industry and the formation of regional tourism spatial pattern.Due to the different natural environment,geographical location and social and economic level of provinces and cities along the Silk Road Economic Belt,tourism economic development is not balanced obviously,and there are differences in the layout of transportation,which may lead to mismatched development of tourism economy and transportation in each province and city.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the development of transportation and tourism economy in the Silk Road Economic Belt.This paper takes nine provinces and cities along the Silk Road Economic Belt as the research object.Firstly,by constructing the evaluation index system,using entropy weight method to analyze the development of transportation and tourism economy in each province and city,then through the coupling coordination model,measure and discuss the coupling coordination degree of the two major systems in each province and city from the time trend and space evolution.Finally,by using the geographical exploration model,explore the factors and influence degree of regional coupling coordination,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions based on the research conclusion.The results are as follows:(1)From 2007 to 2018,the development level of transportation and tourism economy in nine provinces and cities is constantly improving.Among them,the development level of transportation in Sichuan and Shaanxi is relatively high,that in Guangxi,Chongqing,Yunnan,Gansu and Xinjiang is in the middle,and that in Ningxia and Qinghai is relatively low.Yunnan and Sichuan are the regions with high level of tourism economic development,Guangxi,Shaanxi,Chongqing and Xinjiang are in the middle level,while Gansu,Qinghai and Ningxia are the regions with low level of development.(2)From 2007 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of transportation and tourism economy shows an increasing trend year by year,but the overall coordination degree of the region is relatively low,which has not reached the ideal coordinated development state.From the perspective of the whole region,the coupling coordination degree of transportation and tourism economy has generally evolved to coordination,but the stratification phenomenon is relatively obvious,and the coordination degree of southwest region is generally higher than that of northwest region.The regional spatial distribution shows a decreasing evolution feature of "from east to west,from south to north",which shows a decreasing pattern with Sichuan as the core layer.(3)Through factor detection,it is found that the factors that affect the degree of coupling and coordination are mainly traffic infrastructure construction leading,tourism element leading and tourism industry scale leading.Through interaction detection,it is found that the influence of interaction is generally stronger than that of single factor.In most areas,the interaction is the type of two factor enhancement;in a few areas,the interaction is the type of nonlinear enhancement,showing the enhancement effect of "1 + 1 > 2".更多还原