【作者】 刘洋；

【导师】 李娟；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 流感疫苗对公民的身体健康意义重大,然而由于流感疫苗独特的生产技术和不稳定的接种需求,造成流感疫苗供需不匹配的情况反复发生,导致流感疫苗供应链较大的经济损失。因此,探究不确定性对流感疫苗供应链收益的影响具有现实意义。现讨论流感疫苗供应链的文献中,部分文献仅从产量或需求不确定性一方面进行讨论,并且未分析集中和分散决策模式下,不确定性变化对供应链收益的影响。另外,现实中存在公共卫生组织与生产商构建成本共担机制缓解不确定性影响。因此本文基于流感疫苗供应链实际特征建模,对比分析集中决策模式和分散决策模式,不确定性变化对供应链收益的影响,并探究成本共担合同的协调作用。本文首先对集中决策模式进行探究。仅考虑一类不确定性时,对比分析了不确定性对集中系统收益的影响,发现集中系统收益随着产量或需求不确定性增大而减小,当需求均值较大时,集中系统应更关注产量不确定性,此时产量不确定性增大使集中系统收益减小量更大;当需求均值较小时,需求不确定性增大造成收益减小量更大。考虑两类不确定性时,得到不同边际收益和不确定性大小下集中系统的最优决策和收益,并探究了不确定性变化对决策的影响。批发价格合同中,仅考虑一类不确定性时,本文对比分析了不确定性对供应链成员收益的影响,对于生产商,发现若防疫站边际收益较大,需求不确定性增大对生产商是有利的,且仅考虑需求不确定性的生产商收益更大;若防疫站边际收益较小,结论与集中决策模式相同。对于防疫站,防疫站收益随着产量或需求不确定性递减,发现需求均值较小时,防疫站应更关注产量不确定性,产量不确定性增大导致收益减少量更大;需求均值较大时,需求不确定性增大使收益减小量更大。本文进一步对比分析集中决策和批发价格合同,不确定性对供应链收益的影响,仅考虑一类不确定性时,供应链总收益均随着产量或需求不确定性增大而递减。最后,本文对比了成本共担合同和批发价格合同的供应链收益,发现仅考虑产量不确定性时,成本共担合同可协调批发价格合同供应链,并且防疫站分担的成本不是越大越好,此时存在最优的分担成本使得成本共担合同改善供应链收益的作用达到最优。仅考虑需求不确定性时,成本共担合同不能协调分散决策模式供应链。更多还原

【Abstract】 Influenza vaccine is of great significance to the health of citizens.However,due to the unique production technology of influenza vaccine and the unstable vaccination demand,the mismatch between the supply and demand of influenza vaccine occurs repeatedly,resulting in a large economic loss in the influenza vaccine supply chain.Therefore,it is of practical significance to explore the impact of uncertainty on the profits of the influenza vaccine supply chain.In the current literature on the influenza vaccine supply chain,some of the literature only discusses the uncertainty of yield or demand,and does not analyze the impact of uncertainty changes on supply chain returns under the centralized and decentralized decision-making model.In addition,there exists a cost-sharing mechanism between public health organizations and manufacturers to mitigate the impact of uncertainty.Therefore,based on the modeling of the actual characteristics of the influenza vaccine supply chain,this paper compared and analyzed the impact of the centralized and decentralized decision-making models,uncertainty changes on supply chain profits,and explored the coordinating role of cost-sharing contracts.This paper first explores the centralized decision-making model.Only consider a kind of uncertainty,the contrast analysis of the influence of uncertainty on the centralized system profits,found that the centralized system returns as yield and decreases or demand uncertainty,when the mean demand is bigger,the centralized system should be more focus on yield uncertainty,the yield increased uncertainty make centralized system profits reduction is greater;When the mean value of demand is smaller,the increase of uncertainty of demand will result in a greater decrease in profits.Considering the two kinds of uncertainty,the optimal decision and benefit of the centralized system with different marginal income and uncertainty are obtained,and the influence of uncertainty change on the decision is explored.In the wholesale price contract,when only one kind of uncertainty is taken into account,this paper compares and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the profits of supply chain members.For manufacturers,it is found that if the marginal benefit of epidemic prevention stations is large,the increase of demand uncertainty is beneficial to the manufacturers,and the manufacturers who only consider the uncertainty of demand gain more.If the marginal benefit of the epidemic prevention station is small,the conclusion is the same as the centralized decision-making model.For the epidemic prevention station,the income of the epidemic prevention station decreases with the uncertainty of the yield or demand,and it is found that the average demand is smaller.The epidemic prevention station should pay more attention to the uncertainty of the yield,and the increase of the uncertainty of the yield will lead to a greater reduction of the yield.When the mean value of demand is large,the increase of uncertainty of demand makes the yield decrease larger.This paper further compares and analyzes the impact of centralized decision-making and wholesale price contracts on supply chain returns.When only one kind of uncertainty is considered,the total profits of the supply chain decreases with the increase of yield or demand uncertainty.Finally,this paper compared the cost sharing contract and wholesale price contract of supply chain profit,found that only considering yield uncertainty,the supply chain cost sharing contract can coordinate the wholesale price contract,and epidemic prevention station to share the cost is not the bigger the better,at the moment there is an optimal share the costs,improve the supply chain cost sharing contract revenue role to achieve the optimal.When only considering the uncertainty of demand,the costsharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain of decentralized decision model.更多还原