【作者】 陈曦；

【导师】 任碧云；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 贫困是关系国计民生的重大问题。改革开放四十余年来,中国的减贫工作使8亿多人成功摆脱贫困,对全球减贫贡献率超过70%。党的十九大明确提出,要坚决打好精准脱贫攻坚战,到2020年实现现行标准下农村贫困人口脱贫,也体现出党和政府对于贫困问题的高度重视。包容性金融发展自概念提出以来,在减贫方面的作用日益为学界和政界所关注,效果也得到了多方验证。为更好地解决中国减贫工作中面临的现实问题,论文试图剖析包容性金融发展直接和间接减缓贫困的作用机理,进而探讨包容性金融发展在减缓贫困中所表现出的静态和动态特征,最终得到直接效应、间接效应以及静态、动态特征对于贫困减缓的影响结果。在系统梳理包容性金融发展减贫效应的基础上,论文从政策设计角度,提出进一步强化减贫效应的建议。基于上述研究目的,论文主要研究了三个方面的问题。第一,包容性金融发展的减贫效应是通过什么途径发挥的,直接效应和间接效应各自的贡献度有多大,间接效应变量之间是否存在相互影响?第二,包容性金融发展的减贫效应有什么特征,减贫效应是否会随着包容性金融发展水平的提高而产生变化,中国各地区的减贫效应是否相似,包容性金融发展与贫困之间是否存在动态的相互影响关系?第三,为更好地发挥包容性金融发展的减贫效应,在政策设计中可以有哪些方向性的考虑?这三个问题层层递进,第一个问题是论文的研究基础和重点,第二个问题是在第一个问题基础上的延伸,第三个问题则是研究的最终落脚点。针对第一个问题,论文剖析了包容性金融发展减缓贫困的机理。运用财富积累比较模型、AK模型、G-J效应模型以及贫困变动分解模型等分析框架进行理论分析,将包容性金融发展减缓贫困的机理分为直接效应和间接效应:直接效应是指包容性金融发展能够直接减缓贫困,间接效应是指包容性金融发展能够通过促进经济增长和缩小收入分配差距来间接减缓贫困。在理论分析的基础上,引入多重中介效应模型,运用广义矩估计(GMM)方法,对包容性金融发展的减贫机理进行了实证检验。实证检验中借鉴已有研究成果,从可获得性、可使用性和可负担性3个维度出发,选取了 12个评价指标,运用变异系数法合成了中国包容性金融发展指数,用于衡量内地各省区市的包容性金融发展水平。研究结果表明:1.包容性金融发展能够通过直接效应和间接效应减缓贫困;2.在中国目前的包容性金融发展水平下,包容性金融发展减贫的直接效应贡献度高于间接效应,间接效应中经济增长效应的贡献度大于收入分配效应;3.在间接效应传导机制中,经济增长对收入分配存在单向影响。针对第二个问题,论文进一步描述了包容性金融发展减贫效应的特征。考虑到包容性金融发展与贫困减缓存在非线性关系,采用省际面板数据,运用门限回归模型,探讨包容性金融发展在不同地区和不同发展阶段对贫困的影响差异。同时,为研究包容性金融发展与贫困的动态相互影响,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)分析方法,从可获得性、可使用性和可负担性三个维度分析包容性金融发展与贫困的动态相互影响。研究结果表明:1.全国范围内,包容性金融发展在贫困减缓过程中表现出显著的双门限效应,包容性金融发展的减贫效应存在先加速后收敛的趋势,东、中、西部各地区由于发展水平差异,也表现出不同的单门限效应特征;2.包容性金融发展与贫困具有稳定的动态关系,三个维度中可使用性维度对于贫困减缓的动态影响最为显著,同时贫困也会对包容性金融发展产生一定消极影响。通过前两个问题的研究,论文验证了包容性金融发展减贫效应的存在,对相关机理和运行特征进行了系统性的梳理总结。针对第三个问题,论文基于政府管理部门的视角,尝试提出发展包容性金融,促进贫困减缓的政策建议,供决策部门参考。根据前两个问题的研究结论,提出的具体建议包括:健全优化包容性金融发展的法律环境、监管环境、信用环境和消费者教育环境;健全多层次包容性金融服务体系,改善功能排斥、价格排斥和地理排斥;强化包容性金融政策支持,因地制宜制定发展政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Poverty has always been a major issue related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s poverty reduction efforts have successfully lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty,contributing more than 70%to global poverty reduction.At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,it was clearly proposed that we should resolutely fight for precise poverty reduction and achieve poverty reduction for the rural poor under the current standard by 2020,which also reflected the great attention of the party and the government to the problem of poverty.Since the concept of inclusive financial development was put forward,its role in poverty reduction has been paid more and more attention by the academic and political circles,and its effect has been verified to some extent.In order to better solve the practical problems in China’s poverty reduction,this dissertation attempts to analyze the mechanism of inclusive financial development for poverty reduction from both direct and indirect aspects,and then discusses the static and dynamic characteristics of inclusive financial development in poverty alleviation,finanlly obtains the impact of direct and indirect effects as well as the static and dynamic characteristics on poverty reduction.On the basis of systematically studying the poverty reduction effects of inclusive financial development,the dissertation puts forward recommendations of strengthening the poverty reduction effects from the perspective of policy design.Based on the above research purposes,this dissertation mainly raises three questions.First,how do the poverty reduction effects of inclusive financial development play,how much are the direct and indirect effects contributing,and whether there is interaction between indirect effect variables?Second,what are the characteristics of the poverty reduction effect of inclusive financial development?Will the poverty reduction effects change with the improvement of the level of inclusive financial development?Is there a dynamic interaction between inclusive financial development and poverty?Third,what can be considered in policy design to better play the poverty reduction effects of inclusive financial development?The first question is the research basis and focus of the dissertation,the second one is the extension based on the first one,and the third one is the final goal of the research.Aiming at the first problem,the dissertation analyzes the mechanism of poverty reduction by inclusive financial development.Using the analysis framework of wealth accumulation comparison model,AK model,G-J effect model and poverty change decomposition model,this dissertation divides the mechanism of poverty reduction of inclusive financial development into direct effect and indirect effects:direct effect refers to that inclusive financial development can directly alleviate poverty,indirect effects refer to that inclusive finance can promote economic growth and reduce income distribution gap to reduce poverty indirectly.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this dissertation introduces Multiple Mediating Effects Model,and uses GMM method to test the poverty reduction mechanism of inclusive financial development.In the empirical test,this dissertation uses the existing research results for reference,selects 12 evaluation indicators from the three dimensions of availability,workability and affordability,and uses the coefficient of variation method to synthesize the Index of Financial Inclusion of China,which is used to measure the inclusive financial development level of 31 provinces.The results show that:1.inclusive financial development can alleviate poverty through direct and indirect effects.2.Under the current level of inclusive financial development in China,the contribution of direct effect of inclusive financial development in poverty reduction is higher than that of indirect effects,and the contribution of economic growth effect in indirect effects is greater than that of income distribution effect.3.In the indirect effects transmission mechanism,economic growth has a one-way impact on income distribution.Aiming at the second problem,the dissertation further describes the characteristics of poverty reduction effect of inclusive financial development.Considering the non-linear relationship between inclusive financial development and poverty reduction,this dissertation uses provincial panel data and Threshold Autoregression Model to explore the impact of inclusive finance on poverty in different regions and different stages of development.At the same time,in order to study the dynamic interaction between inclusive financial development and poverty,the PVAR analysis method is used to analyze the dynamic interaction between inclusive financial development and poverty from the three dimensions of availability,workability and affordability.The results show that:1.Inclusive financial development shows a significant double threshold effect in the process of poverty reduction across the country.There is a trend of acceleration and convergence in the poverty reduction effect of inclusive financial development.Due to the difference of development level,the eastern,central and western regions also show different single threshold effect patterns.2.Inclusive financial development has a stable dynamic relationship with poverty.Among these dimensions,the usability dimension has the most significant dynamic impact on poverty reduction,while poverty also has a negative impact on inclusive financial development.Through the research of the first two questions,the dissertation verifies the existence of poverty reduction effect of inclusive financial development,and systematically summarizes the relevant mechanism and characteristics.In view of the third problem,the dissertation attempts to put forward policy suggestions for the development of inclusive finance to promote poverty reduction from the perspective of government policy design,for the reference of policy makers.According to the research conclusions of the first two issues,the specific suggestions include:improving and optimizing the legal environment,regulatory environment,credit environment and consumer education environment;improving multi-level inclusive financial service system to reduce functional exclusion,price exclusion and geographical exclusion;strengthening policy support,adapting measures to local conditions and formulating inclusive financial development policies based on regional characteristics.更多还原