【作者】 李琳；

【导师】 张根能；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 中国-东盟自由贸易区在2010年1月1日正式全面启动。自由贸易区建设成立以后,中国和东盟国家之间的贸易达到了中国对外贸易总额的13%,贸易区包含了十一个国家和十九亿人口,GDP更是到达了 6万亿美元。中国-东盟自由贸易协定是中国对外签订较早的自由贸易协定,自由贸易区的经济影响日益显现。本文在梳理了相关理论研究与文献分析的基础上,利用引力模型,选取了 2005年-2018年的14年里中国对10个东盟贸易协议的成员国以及包括欧盟、美国和日本等在内36个协议外参照国家的进出口贸易数据,研究中国和贸易合作伙伴的国内生产总值、中国与贸易合作伙伴国的实际人均GDP的差额、贸易国家首都距离、是否使用同一种语言和是否签订东盟自由贸易协定等因素对中国对外贸易的影响。并对中国对外贸易活动进行整体和分三个阶段的回归分析。最后,提出中国区域贸易的发展建议。通过分析,本文得出结论:(1)中国-东盟自贸区的建立会产生贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应。随着时间的推移,创造效应和转移效应对贸易的影响也在增强。2005年-2018年之间整体上贸易创造效应更大,在长期看来自由贸易区的建立对我国对外贸易是有利的。(2)贸易额的大小与双方经济规模和共同语言因素是正相关的。中国与伙伴国的国内生产总值越高,那么双方的进口和出口贸易额也随之增长。拥有相似的语言文化和背景会削弱贸易交往中的一部分摩擦,从而促进贸易合作的长远发展。(3)中国与贸易伙伴国家的实际人均GDP的差额会对双方的贸易额也产生正向的影响。不同国家在贸易产品种类上的产品技术优势和资源禀赋不同,各个国家的分工就不同,带来实际需求与消费能力的差异,不同文化背景也会带来消费偏好的差异,所以在一定范围之间的人均GDP差额,反而会刺激贸易的合作。(4)两国贸易距离越大双方的贸易额越小,但这种影响在逐渐减小。贸易距离的增加意味着双方的贸易阻力和贸易的潜在风险在增加,运输距离的长短对商品贸易的规模及品种都会产生重要影响。但通过分阶段的回归分析发现,随着双方贸易合作的不断加深,距离因素对贸易的影响逐渐得到克服。更多还原

【Abstract】 The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was officially launched on January 1,2010.Since the establishment of the free trade area,the trade between China and ASEAN countries has reached 13%of the world’s total trade.The free trade area contains 11 countries with a population of 1.9 billion and a GDP of 6 trillion us dollars.China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement is an earlier free trade agreement signed by China.This paper combed the relevant theory,on the basis of the research and literature analysis,using gravity model,selected the 2005-2018,14 years in ten members of ASEAN Trade Agreement and China,including the European Union,the United States and Japan,etc,36 agreement with reference to the national import and export trade data,study of Chinese and trade partners of gross domestic product(GDP),China and trade cooperation partners,trade of the absolute value of the real per capita GDP gap between national capital distance,whether or not to use the same language,and whether signed ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on the impact of China’s foreign trade.The regression analysis of China’s foreign trade activities as a whole and in three stages is carried out.Finally,it puts forward some Suggestions on the development of China’s regional trade.Through analysis,this paper draws a conclusion:(1)The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will produce trade creation effect and trade diversion effect.Over time,the effects of creation and transfer on trade have become more pronounced.The overall trade creation effect is greater between 2005 and 2018.In the long run,the establishment of the free trade zone is beneficial to China foreign trade.(2)The volume of trade is positively correlated with the economic scale and common language of both sides.The higher the GDP of China and its partner countries is,the higher the bilateral import and export trade will be.Having similar language,culture and background will weaken some frictions in trade exchanges and promote the long-term development of trade cooperation.(3)The absolute value of real per capita GDP difference between China and trading partner countries will also have a positive impact on bilateral trade.Different countries have different technological advantages and resource endowments in the types of traded products,so the division of labor of each country is different,which leads to differences in actual demand and consumption capacity.Different cultural backgrounds also lead to differences in consumption preferences.Therefore,the difference in per capita GDP within a certain range will stimulate trade cooperation.(4)The greater the trade distance between the two countries,the smaller the trade volume between the two sides,but this influence is gradually diminishing.The increase of trade distance means the trade resistance and potential risks of both sides are increasing.The length of transportation distance will have an important impact on the scale and variety of commodity trade.However,the stepwise regression analysis shows that with the deepening of bilateral trade cooperation,the influence of distance factor on trade is gradually overcome.更多还原