【作者】 王恒；

【导师】 梁青槐；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 我国正处于城市轨道交通规划和建设的快速发展期,越来越多的城市将城市轨道交通系统作为解决城市交通问题的首选项。工程实践中,线路开通运营过于超前会导致客流严重不足使运营效益差,线路开通过于滞后会导致不满足客流需求限制城市发展,这些问题与线路建设时序安排不合理有关。城市轨道交通系统具有工程量大、建设周期长、建设成本高等特点,一个建设期内能建成的线路规模有限,需要在满足城市客流需求和符合城市经济能力限制的条件下合理安排各条线路的建设时序。实际工程普遍通过定性分析决定各条线路的建设时序,由于受主观因素影响结果可能不准确。影响线路建设时序的因素较多,定性分析难以全面表现各方面因素的影响作用,因此需要研究综合各方面影响因素的定量计算方法,使决策结果客观可靠。本文将建设时序问题划分为建设顺序和建设时机两个层次的问题,分别建立了线路建设顺序定量计算模型和线路建设时机定量计算模型,通过定量计算“序”和“时”解决线路建设时序问题。本文的主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)建立了线路建设顺序决策量化指标体系。列举分析影响线路建设顺序的主要因素,并按作用主体归纳为客流需求、交通服务、线网结构和城市发展四类。提出日客流强度、日周转量和单向高峰小时最大断面流量三个量化指标代表客流需求,提出交通区位系数、客流集散点覆盖度两个量化指标代表交通服务,提出网络可达性贡献度量化指标代表线网结构,提出城市位置系数量化指标代表城市发展,形成了建设顺序决策量化指标体系。(2)建立了线路建设顺序定量计算模型。研究了多属性决策方法TOPSIS法并对其局限性进行改进,通过设置绝对理想解改进逆序问题,通过基于粗糙集的属性重要度权重计算方法使赋权过程客观,通过顺序理想解代替正负理想解避免出现无法判断的情况。基于改进的TOPSIS方法,结合排序线路的量化指标体系建立了线路建设顺序定量计算模型,通过计算各条线路与顺序理想解之间的加权欧氏距离判断线路的综合建设优先级,从而确定线路建设顺序,设计了完整算法并用Python实现程序计算。(3)建立了线路建设时机定量计算模型。通过研究典型城市的线网规模发展过程发现其随时间变化呈S型趋势,多种S型曲线拟合结果表明Logistic曲线能稳定准确地描述线网规模增长过程。研究城市特征与Logistic函数参数的关系并确定了符合城市发展需求和建设能力限制的线网规模合理增长曲线函数表达式。以线路建设顺序、线路长度和规模合理增长曲线为约束条件建立线路建设时机计算模型,以各条线路结束建设投入运营的理想时机为计算目标,根据各条线路合理建设工期推算开始建设的理想时机,并为计算过程设计了完整算法,用Python实现了线路建设时机的程序计算和结果可视化。(4)以成都市远景规划线网的1～15号线组成的小型线网为案例,应用本文提出的建设时序双层模型分别计算了1～15号线的建设顺序和建设时机。通过对比已建成运营的7条线路的实际建设顺序,发现7号线建设顺序过于靠后,而10号线建设顺序过于靠前。以目前投入运营的7条线的各分期建设区段的长度、建设顺序和建设工期为初始数据,应用本文的建设时机模型计算其合理建设时机,发现1号线一期建设时机滞后了约2.25年,1号线二期建设时机滞后了约2年,2号线二期建设时机滞后了约1.5年,2号线一期、4号线一期、3号线一期、4号线二期和10号线一期的建设时机均滞后了约1年,7号线、1号线三期、3号线二期、5号线和10号线二期建设时机安排合理。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is in the period of rapid development of urban rail transit planning and construction,and more and more cities regard urban rail transit system as the best option to solve urban traffic problems.In actual engineering projects,the excessively advanced operation of the line will lead to shortage of passenger flow and poor operation efficiency.The delay of the line operation will lead to the failure to meet the demand of passenger flow and limit the development of the city.These problems are related to the unwise decision of sequence in time of line construction.The construction process of the urban rail transit system has the characteristics of large engineering volume,long time span,and large investment in resources so that the scale of the lines that can be built during a construction period is limited.It is necessary to arrange reasonable sequence in time of each line under the conditions of meeting the needs of urban passenger flow and meeting the constraints of urban economic capacity.The actual project generally determines construction sequence in time through qualitative analysis,and the results are often inaccurate due to subjective factors.There are many factors that affect sequence in time of line construction,and it is difficult to qualitatively analyze the impact of various factors.Therefore,it is necessary to study the method of quantitatively calculating the sequence in time of line construction by integrating all factors to make the decision result objective and reliable.This paper divides the sequence in time of the urban rail lines construction problem into two levels: construction sequence and construction timing,and establishes a quantitative calculation model for line construction sequence and a quantitative calculation model for line construction timing.When we know the sequence and timing of line construction,we know the sequence in time of construction of each urban rail line.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:(1)This article establishes a quantitative index system for line construction sequence decision-making.This paper analyzes the main factors that affect the sequence of line construction and divides them into four categories: passenger demand,transportation services,network structure and urban development.Daily passenger flow intensity,daily turnover and maximum cross-sectional passenger flow in single peak hour are proposed as representative quantitative indicators of passenger demand.Traffic location coefficient and coverage of passenger centers are proposed as representative quantitative indicators of traffic services.Contribution of network reachability is proposed as a representative quantitative indicator of network structure.And Position coefficient is proposed as a representative quantitative indicator of urban development.(2)This article establishes a quantitative calculation model for the sequence of line construction.The multi-attribute decision-making method TOPSIS method is studied and its limitations are improved.A quantitative calculation model for the sequence of line construction is established based on the improved TOPSIS method.The comprehensive construction priority of the line is determined by calculating the weighted Euclidean distance between each line and the sequential ideal solutions.A complete algorithm is designed and the program calculation is implemented in Python.(3)A quantitative calculation model for the timing of line construction is established.By studying the development process of the network scale of typical cities,it is found that its change over time shows an S-shaped trend.Various S-shaped curve fitting results show that the logistic curve can describe the process stably and accurately.The reasonable growth curve function expression of the network scale that meets the urban development needs and the constraints of construction capacity is determined.A calculation model for the timing of line construction with constraints of line construction sequence,line length and scale growth curve is established to calculate the end and start time of line construction.A complete algorithm is designed and the automatic calculation and the visualization of the results are realized in Python.(4)Taking Line 1 ～ Line 15 of the Chengdu Urban Rail Thansit as an example,the construction sequence and timing are calculated by the two-layer model proposed in this paper.It is found that the construction sequence of Line 7 is too late,and the construction sequence of Line 10 is too front.The timing of construction of the phase 1 of Line 1 lags about 2.25 years,and phase 2 of Line 1 lags about 2 years and phase 2 of Line 2 lags about 1.5 years.The timing of construction of the phase 1 of Line 2,phase 1 of Line 4,phase 1 of Line 3,phase 2 of Line 4 and phase 1 of Line 10 lags about a year.The timing of the construction of Line 7,phase 3 of Line 1,phase 2 of Line 3,Line 5 and phase 2 of Line 10 is reasonable.更多还原