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“一带一路”背景下对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on RMB Internationalization in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

【作者】 周琳

【导师】 王维安;

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 , 金融(专业学位), 2020, 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国对外开放的不断深化,特别是随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,我国加快了企业“走出去”的步伐,对外直接投资规模迅速增长,我国已经连续四年成为净直接投资国;同时,人民币国际化进程也迈上了新的台阶,资本项下人民币交易迅速增长,人民币国际使用结构正在由贸易为主体向资本金融为主体进行转变,对外直接投资成为提升人民币国际化水平的新动力。因此,在“一带一路”背景下,探究对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响具有重要的现实意义和研究价值。基于此,本文从“一带一路”倡议的视角出发,重点分析中国对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响。首先,本文梳理了国内外的研究成果,具体展示了我国目前对外直接投资发展的历程与现状,重点分析“一带一路”背景下中国对外直接投资的发展特点,并详尽剖析人民币国际化在贸易项和资本项下的发展现状。其次,本文明确了中国对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响机制,为全文研究提供理论支撑。最后,本文以实证检验方法,通过格兰杰检验、脉冲响应分析比较“一带一路”倡议实施前、后中国对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响。在上述研究中,本文主要得出如下结论:(1)我国对外直接投资规模迅速扩张,产业结构持续优化,投资方式不断创新,对外直接投资中人民币结算量增长迅速。“一带一路”背景下中国对外直接投资展现出新的发展特征,主要体现在规模贡献、渠道创新和金融支持三方面。(2)近年来,人民币国际化水平总体稳步提升,人民币国际金融交易功能进一步强化,资本金融项下人民币国际化水平显著提升。(3)对外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响机制主要以直接影响和间接影响(货币稳定、贸易扩大、融资扩大和预期效应)两个方面为主。(4)“一带一路”倡议全面实施后,对外直接投资对人民币国际化的促进作用显著且长期稳定,对外直接投资已成为推进人民币国际化的重要因素。最后,本文立足“一带一路”倡议,为通过对外直接投资这一途径促进人民币国际化提出相应的政策建议。

【Abstract】 Nowadays,with the in-depth advancement of the “The Belt and Road” initiative and the continuous deepening of the open policy,China has accelerated the pace of "going global" for enterprises.And,the foreign direct investment has grown rapidly.China has become a net foreign direct country for four consecutive years.At the same time,the process of RMB internationalization has also accelerated,and "enterprise ’going out’ + RMB capital export" has become a new main line leading the deepening of RMB internationalization.In this paper,it is of great significance to explore the impact of OFDI on the RMB internationalization in conjunction with the "The Belt and Road” initiative.This paper takes the "The Belt and Road” initiative as the background,and focuses on the analysis of the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on RMB internationalization.First of all,this paper sorts out the research results at home and abroad,specifically shows the current history and status of China’s foreign direct investment development.Besides,focuses on analyzing the development characteristics of China’s foreign direct investment in the context of the "The Belt and Road".Secondly,this paper clarifies the impact mechanism of China’s foreign direct investment on the internationalization of RMB,and provides theoretical support for the full text research.Finally,this article uses an empirical test method to compare the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on the RMB internationalization before and after the implementation of the "The Belt and Road” initiative.In the above research,this article summarizes the following results:(a)The scale of China’s OFDI has expanded rapidly and the industrial structure has continued to be optimized.Investment methods have been continuously innovated and the amount of RMB settlement in FDI has grown rapidly.In the context of the "The Belt and Road",China’s foreign direct investment has shown new development characteristics,which are mainly reflected in three aspects: scale contribution,channel innovation and financial support.(b)In recent years,the level of RMB internationalization has steadily improved,the function of RMB international financial transactions has been further strengthened,and the level of RMB internationalization under capital finance has increased significantly.(c)The impact mechanism of foreign direct investment on the RMB internationalization is mainly about two aspects: direct impact and indirect impact(currency stability,trade expansion,financing expansion and expected effects).(d)After the "The Belt and Road” initiative has been fully implemented,the promotion of foreign direct investment on the RMB internationalization has been significant and sustained.In the future,further development of foreign direct investment will become an important factor in promoting the RMB internationalization.Finally,based on the "The Belt and Road” initiative,this paper makes policy suggestions about improving the RMB internationalize through foreign direct investment.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 浙江大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2021年 02期
  • 【分类号】F832.6;F125
  • 【被引频次】3
  • 【下载频次】985
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