【作者】 杨娜；

【导师】 刘仁辉；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 公共管理， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 山西省以能源和工业发展闻名,在转变以资源消耗为基础的经济发展模式的探索中被国家列为重点试验城市,但由于能源开采和城市化发展的推进,近年来山西省土地生态系统的平衡遭受破坏,土地生态的可持续性和安全健康状况受到重创,整体生态环境堪忧。近年来国家和党对人与自然和谐关系的探索经历了从认识层面到要求和部署层面的高度提升,并且在2017年9月11日国家就山西发展提出的专项整改意见中强调山西应突出生态优先原则,要求山西进一步深化生态文明建设,加强资源开发地区生态保护修复治理,启发我们对土地生态安全和可持续发展问题进行深度思考。论文研究和分析了山西省及其11个城市2005年-2010年-2015年-2018年的土地生态足迹、土地生态安全与城市化发展的耦合协调程度,最后应用TOPSIS多准则决策模型将这两项指标综合纳入编程系统,得出每个城市的综合评价得分。其中生态足迹的研究是从建立生物资源账户和化石能源账户开始,再通过热量值来计算出均衡因子和产量因子,接着配合各类产品分类计算生态足迹,比如农产品、林产品、水产品、畜牧产品和化石能源产品,分别计算出了2005年-2010年-2015年-2018年山西省及各城市的生态足迹,最后分析计算了生态赤字和盈余、土地自然资本流量收益率及存量—流量利用比和万元GDP生态足迹及生态足迹深度与广度等。耦合协调度的研究则是通过建立土地生态安全评价指标体系和城市化发展评价指标体系,采用因子分析法和熵权法综合算出权重,接着得出2005年-2010年-2015年-2018年山西省及各城市的土地生态与城市化发展耦合协调指数的时空变化规律,最后分析计算了耦合协调度的空间自相关和局部自相关程度,来分析和研究每个城市该属性的空间聚集性和异质性。最后为了解决这两项评价结果的冲突,减少决策风险,论文通过编程来将这两项指标纳入TOPSIS多准则决策模型中,最终运行得出每个城市关于土地生态可持续发展评价的综合得分。论文主要目的是通过TOPSIS多准则决策模型综合分析山西省的生态足迹现状和耦合协调现状,并精准聚焦山西省及各城市的生态短板和城市化进程中的人地矛盾、可持续发展问题,为山西省今后实施资源合理开发利用、保护和恢复生态环境建设提供依据,体现转变本省经济发展方式和优化调整经济结构的迫切性,从而更好地协调区域资源,让本省及各城市的经济、社会、生态以及人文等均向可持续发展方向迈进。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanxi Province is famous for its energy and industrial development,and is listed as a key experimental city by our country in the exploration of changing and developing original economic mode that relies on resource consumption.However,due to energy exploitation and urbanization development,the balance of land ecosystem in Shanxi Province has been damaged in recent years,and the sustainability,safety and health of land ecology have been severely affected.The overall ecological environment is worrying.In recent years,The exploration of the harmonious relationship between human and nature by our country and the party has experienced a high degree of improvement from the level of recognition to the level of requirements and deployment and in the September 11,2017,our country put forward special rectification opinions on the development of Shanxi Province,which point that Shanxi should mainly focuses on the ecological priority principle,should deepen the construction of ecological civilization,strengthen protection and restoration of ecological resources development area,which inspire us to think deeply about the problems of land ecological security and sustainable development.This paper studies and analyzes land ecological footprint,the coupling coordination degree of land ecological security and urbanization development in Shanxi Province and its 11 cities from year of 2005 to 2018.Finally,TOPSIS multi-criteria decision model is applied to integrate these two indicators into the programming system,and the comprehensive evaluation score of each city is obtained.The studies of ecological footprint start from building of biological resources account and fossil-energy resources account,and then the paper calculates the equilibrium factor and yield factor through the heat value,then calculates ecological footprint cooperating with all kinds of product categories,such as agricultural products,forest products,aquatic products,livestock products and fossil energy products.Finally the psper calculates ecological footprint respectively of each city and the whole province,from year of 2005 to 2018.In the final analysis,the paper calculate the ecological deficits and surpluses,land natural capital flow rate of return and stock-flow utilization ratio,ecological footprint per ten thousands GDP and ecological footprint depth and breadth.On the other hand,the studies of coupling coordination degree is beginning with establishment of land ecological security evaluation index system and urbanization development evaluation index system,then it calculates comprehensive weight by using factor-analysis method and entropy method,then coupling coordination index ‘s temporal and spatial changes in Shanxi Province and its cities from year of 2005 to 2018 are concluded.The paper finally analyzes the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation to clear the properties of each city’s spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity.Finally,in order to solve the conflict between the two evaluation results and reduce the decision-making risks,the paper incorporates the two indexes into the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making model through programming,and obtains the comprehensive score of land ecological sustainable development evaluation for each city.Paper’s main purpose is to take a comprehensive analysis on the status of ecological footprint of Shanxi Province and coupling coordination through the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making model,and to make a precise focus on the ecological short board of Shanxi Province and its cities,on the contradiction between man and land and sustainable development in the process of Urbanization,and to provide basis for the implementation of the rational development and utilization of resources,protection and restoration of ecological environment construction in Shanxi Province in the future.And to show the urgency of optimizing economic structure adjustment and transformation of economic development patterns in Shanxi.All in all,to better coordinate with regional resources,make the province and its cities’ economy,society,ecology and humanity move towards sustainable development direction.更多还原