【作者】 李鹏；

【导师】 陈志建；

【作者基本信息】 华东交通大学 ， 统计学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 城市群是我国区域经济一体化的主要成果,而区域经济一体化又关系到国民经济发展,这就使得区域经济发展、城市群发展成为学术界研究的热点问题。截止到目前我国已经形成以长三角、珠三角和京津冀三个成熟的城市群为代表的成渝城市群、关中平原城市群、长江中游城市群等18个城市群,毫无疑问这将对未来我国经济的再次腾飞起到至关重要的作用。当今高速铁路的开通已经是促进城市群发展的重要因素,无论是基于引力模型的区域经济联系强度研究,还是基于高铁发展的区域经济一体化研究都对区域经济学和区域经济的发展做出了一定贡献。2008年8月1日我国首条高速铁路——京津城际铁路正式通车,这标志着我国正式进入高铁时代,在随后的10年里我国的高速铁路得到前所未有的发展。根据官方数据,截止2019年底,中国高速铁路营业里程已达3.5万公里,占全世界总里程的超过2/3,成为世界上高铁里程最长、运输密度最高、成网运营场景最复杂的国家。无论是长三角城市群、珠三角城市群,还是京津冀城市群,高速铁路的规划、设计和通车都对该区域的一体化起到质变的催化作用。京津冀地区是中国的“首都经济圈”,包括北京市天津市两个直辖市,以及河北省的保定、唐山、廊坊、石家庄、邯郸、秦皇岛、张家口、承德、沧州、邢台、衡水等11个地级市。其中,北京、天津、保定、廊坊为中部地区核心功能区,北京天津保定地区将率先联动。北京、天津和河北位于东北亚和中国的渤海中心。它们是中国北方最大、最具活力的经济区,越来越受到中国乃至世界的关注。本文通过选取2017年-2019年,京津冀地区13个城市的经济数据、人口数据、还有各城市之间普通直达列车所用的时间和各城市之间高速列车所用的时间,进行对比分析,采用引力模型,从交通可达性、城市间的经济联系强度、城市间的经济隶属度3个方面来衡量高铁的开通是否对京津冀区域经济发展产生了影响,并得出以下结论:(1)随着高铁的发展,京津冀地区11个主要城市的可达性水平明显提升;由于地理位置的空间差异和铁路线路等级的地区差异,高铁的建成投产和原有铁路线转型升级的时间,导致京津冀地区不同城市的可达性水平在时间和区域上存在明显差异。(2)随着高铁的发展,京津冀地区城市之间的时间距离缩短,经济联系强度整体明显提升,由于经济发展水平和铁路通达性水平的地区差异,经济联系强度的变化在时间和区域上有所不同。在空间上,经济联系强度仍然是以京津为中心,逐步向偏远地区递减的“中心-外围”的空间分布。(3)随着高速铁路的发展,北京对京津冀地区其他10个城市的经济联系隶属度出现了局部变化,原来经济隶属度高的城市随着高速铁路的出现可能经济隶属度降低,原来经济隶属度低的城市随着高速铁路的出现可能经济隶属度提高,但是北京对天津的经济隶属度仍然为第一,北京对秦皇岛的经济隶属度依然为最后一名。本文以京津冀城市群为研究对象,尝试运用城市引力模型研究普通铁路和高铁对京津冀地区经济联系强度的影响,并对两种研究结果进行比较。为推进高铁建设和区域经济发展提供一些参考意见。从全局看,高铁对区域经济发展的影响主要包括促进生产要素流动、提高地方经济发展增速、优化区域城市产业布局等。随着区域经济发展水平的提高,各区域的经济集聚功能和扩散功能将逐步带动周边地区经济发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban agglomeration is the main achievement of regional economic integration in China,and regional economic integration is related to the development of national economy,which makes the development of regional economy and urban agglomeration become a hot issue in academic circles.Up to now,China has formed 18 urban agglomerations such as Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration represented by three mature urban agglomerations:Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration.there is no doubt that this will play a vital role in China’s economic take-off in the future.Nowadays,the opening of high-speed railway has been an important factor to promote the development of urban agglomeration,whether it is the study of regional economic connection strength based on gravity model,or the study of regional economic integration based on the development of high-speed rail has made a certain contribution to the development of regional economics and regional economy.Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway,the first high-speed railway in China,was officially opened to traffic on August 1,2008,which marks that China has officially entered the era of high-speed rail.In the following 10 years,China’s high-speed railway has developed unprecedentedly.According to official data,by the end of 2019,the mileage of China’s high-speed railway has reached 35000 km,accounting for more than 2% of the world’s total mileage,making it the country with the longest high-speed rail mileage,the highest transport density and the most complex network operation scene in the world.Whether it is the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,or the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the planning,design and opening of high-speed railway play a catalytic role in the integration of the region.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is China’s "capital economic circle",including two municipalities directly under the Central Government in Beijing and Tianjin.And 11prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province,including Baoding,Tangshan,Langfang,Shijiazhuang,Handan,Qinhuangdao,Zhangjiakou,Chengde,Cangzhou,Xingtai and Hengshui.Among them,Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding and Langfang are the core functional areas of the central region,and the Baoding area of Beijing and Tianjin will take the lead in linkage.Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are located in Northeast Asia and the center of China’s Bohai Sea.They are the largest and most dynamic economic zones in northern China,and they have attracted more and more attention from China and even the world.This paper compares and analyzes the economic data and population data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2019,as well as the time spent by ordinary through trains and high-speed trains between cities,and uses the gravity model.The purpose of this paper is to measure whether the opening of high-speed railway has an impact on the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from three aspects: traffic accessibility,the intensity of economic ties between cities and the degree of economic membership between cities,and draw the following conclusions:(1)with the development of high-speed railway,the accessibility level of 11 major cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been significantly improved;due to the spatial differences in geographical location and regional differences in railway line grades,the completion and commissioning of the high-speed railway and the time for the transformation and upgrading of the original railway lines have led to obvious differences in the accessibility level of different cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in time and region.(2)with the development of high-speed railway,the time distance between cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is shortened,and the intensity of economic ties is obviously improved as a whole,due to the regional differences between the level of economic development and the level of railway accessibility,the change of the intensity of economic ties is different in time and region.In space,the intensity of economic ties is still a "center-periphery" spatial distribution with Beijing and Tianjin as the center and gradually decreasing to the remote areas.(3)with the development of high-speed railway,the degree of economic membership of Beijing to 10 other cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has changed locally.Cities with high economic membership may have reduced economic membership with the emergence of high-speed railway.Cities with low economic membership may have increased economic membership with the emergence of high-speed railway,but Beijing’s economic membership to Tianjin is still the first.Beijing still ranks last in terms of economic affiliation to Qinhuangdao.Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research object,this paper tries to use the urban gravity model to study the influence of ordinary railway and high-speed railway on the intensity of economic ties in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and compares the two research results.to provide some reference suggestions for promoting the construction of high-speed railway and regional economic development.From an overall point of view,the impact of high-speed railway on regional economic development mainly includes promoting the flow of factors of production,the growth rate of local economic development,optimizing the industrial layout of regional cities,and so on.With the improvement of the level of regional economic development,the economic agglomeration function and diffusion function of each region will gradually promote the economic development of the surrounding region.更多还原