【作者】 刘辉；

【导师】 肖智；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产行业是中国经济的发动机,伴随着房地产的发展,其直接或间接带动了众多产业的发展,进而带动了众多的就业。然而,房价高涨的当下政府坚持房住不炒,一系列政策开始逐步落地。房地产行业的融资渠道变少,融资额减少。作为资金密集型的房地产行业,其本身的销售周期漫长,投资巨大,风险众多。在这种情形下,建立房地产上市公司的财务危机预测模型,以便及时准确发现风险,采取措施规避,将变得十分重要。现金如同企业的血液一样,供血不足将导致企业经营和发展举步维艰。现金流指标能够真正反映一个企业的营运和盈利能力,而且避免了传统财务指标有被粉饰的嫌疑。众多研究表明,基于现金流指标建立企业财务危机预测模型是有效且可行的。本研究不同于传统预测指标体系,本文基于现金流视角构建了一个能够预测房地产上市企业财务危机的预测体系,纳入了基于现金流的财务弹性和现金流结构指标,以期更好的反映房企的财务质量,及时帮助企业识别危机。本文以我国房地产上市公司为研究对象,定义因连续两年亏损被特别处理(ST或*ST)或者股票价值长期低于账面价值而被退市的企业为财务危机企业。选取了2010-2018年间首次被特别处理或因股票价值长期低于账面价值而退市的房地产上市公司7家,正常的房地产上市公司35家,共计42家。基于现金流量指标和若干传统财务指标构建了预测指标体系,该体系涵盖企业偿债能力、获现能力、财务弹性、运营能力、发展能力和现金流结构,共计25个指标。基于该预测指标体系,分别建立了危机发生前3年和前2年的预测模型。在得到数据后,先通过显著性检验区分开正态和非正态分布的财务指标,进而分别使用独立样本T检验和Mann-Whitney U非参数检验分布针对具有正态分布和不具备正态分布性的指标进行显著性检验。得到显著性的指标后,再利用主成分分析提取主成分,最后选用二元逻辑回归进行分析。本文的研究结果表明,基于现金流对我国房地产上市公司主要采用现金流量指标进行财务危机预测是有效且可行的。危机发生前3年和前2年,正常公司和危机公司间存在显著差异的指标数量不同,应该分别对危机发生前3年和前2年建立模型以提高预测的准确度。危机发生的前3年和前2年,现金流利息保障倍数、经营活动产生的净流量增长率和筹资活动现金流入量/总流入量3个有关现金流的财务指标在危机和正常企业间均存在显著差异。且危机发生前2年的模型中有4个现金流结构指标在危机和正常企业间均存在显著差异,说明现金流的结构是可以反映出房地产上市公司财务状况好坏的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry is the engine of the Chinese economy.With the development of real estate,it directly or indirectly drives the development of many industries,which in turn drives many jobs.However,the current government is insisting on housing and not speculating,and a series of policies began to be gradually implemented.The financing channels of the real estate industry have decreased,and the amount of financing has decreased.As a capital-intensive real estate industry,its own sales cycle is long,investment is huge,and there are many risks.Under this circumstance,it is very important to establish a financial crisis prediction model for real estate listed companies in order to accurately identify risks in time and take measures to avoid them.Cash is like the blood of a company.Insufficient blood supply will lead to difficulties in business management and development.The cash flow indicator can truly reflect the operation and profitability of a company,and avoids the suspicion that traditional financial indicators are whitewashed.Numerous studies have shown that it is effective and feasible to establish a corporate financial crisis prediction model based on cash flow indicators.The significance of this research is different from the traditional forecasting index system.Based on the cash flow perspective,this paper constructs a forecasting system that can predict the financial crisis of real estate listed companies,and incorporates the financial flexibility and cash flow structure indicators based on cash flow,in order to better reflect the financial quality of the housing company helps the company identify the crisis in a timely manner.This paper takes China’s real estate listed companies as the research object,and defines the enterprises that have been specially treated due to loss for two consecutive years(ST or *ST)or whose stock value is lower than the book value for a long time.Seven real estate listed companies that were specially treated in 2010-2018 or delisted due to long-term stock value lower than the book value were selected,and 35 normal real estate listed companies,a total of 42.Based on cash flow indicators and a number of traditional financial indicators,a predictive indicator system was constructed,which covers 25 metrics of solvency,cash-capitalization,financial flexibility,operational capability,development capability and cash flow structure.Based on the forecasting indicator system,the prediction models for the 3 years and 2 years before the crisis were established.After obtaining the data,the statistical indicators of normal and non-normal distribution are distinguished by the significance test,and then the independent sample T test and the Mann-Whitney U non-parametric test distribution are used to have normal distribution and no normal distribution.After obtaining the significant indicators,the principal component analysis is used to extract the principal components,and finally the binary logistic regression is used for analysis.This paper finds that it is effective and feasible to use the cash flow index to predict the financial crisis based on cash flow.In the three years and the first two years before the crisis,there are different number of indicators of significant differences between normal companies and crisis companies.Models should be established for the three years before and two years before the crisis to improve the accuracy of prediction.The first three years and the first two years of the crisis,the cash flow interest coverage ratio,the net flow growth rate generated by operating activities and the cash inflows from financing activities/total inflows,3 financial indicators related to cash flow are significantly different between crisis and normal enterprises.And there are 4 cash flow structure indicators in the model two years before the crisis.There are significant differences between the crisis and normal enterprises,indicating that the structure of cash flow can reflect the financial status of real estate listed companies.更多还原