【作者】 潘宇；

【导师】 刘霞；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 公共管理（MPA）（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 2013年底乌克兰政局突变,政府被颠覆,反对派全面掌权,前总统亚努科维奇被迫下台。此后,克里米亚入俄,东部地区战火骤起,俄罗斯与西方大打制裁战,关系坠入冷战后的谷底。对于同样是多民族、地区差异巨大、并且处于全世界风险中心的中国来说,研究乌克兰危机对于防范和抵御颜色革命和民族分裂势力具有借鉴意义。本文将乌克兰政治危机作为研究对象进行应急管理研究,以期客观描述乌克兰现状、挖掘乌克兰社会动荡的原因。本文立足于危机管理理论基础,从乌克兰国内社会脆弱性和以美国为首的西方干扰势力两个维度出发,以定量与定性相结合的研究方法,对乌克兰危机进行分析。在西方扰动性维度内,本文初步定义了扰动性的概念,并描述了其对乌克兰社会脆弱性的影响。在社会脆弱性维度内,依据范维澄公共安全三角形理论思想,结合脆弱性研究模型,提出了乌克兰社会脆弱性因子和变量,利用SPSS软件计算得出乌克兰脆弱性指标体系并绘制了可视化图,实现了乌克兰社会脆弱性的量化,并通过案例对其进行验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the end of 2013,Ukraine’s political situation changed suddenly and Opposition came to power.The former president Yanukovich was forced to step down.Since then Crimea joined into Russia and a war has broken out in eastern of Ukraine.Russia and the West imposed sanctions on each other,and their relationship has bottomed after the Cold War.As China is a multi-ethnic country,and has huge regional differences like Ukraine,the analyze is a reference for preventing and resisting the color revolution and the ethnic separatist forces.The paper analyses with the method of vulnerability and the research of Emergency Management to describe the status of Ukraine and to explore the further and thorough courses of Ukraine crisis 2013.The reference relates The theory of crisis management,and analyzes the present situation in Ukraine in the area of social vulnerability and the intervention from western by using both qualitative and quantitative analyze method.Firstly,this paper defines the concept of intervention and its effect on vulnerability in Ukraine.Secondly,the paper indicates factors and variables of social vulnerability in Ukraine according to the Triangle Theory of Fan Weicheng,the research model of vulnerability,and calculates Ukraine vulnerability index system with SPSS,and validates it through two cases.更多还原