【作者】 周洁；

【导师】 陈志刚；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 人文地理学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 农业直接补贴政策是国家为调动农民积极性、促进粮食生产、增加农民收入而推出的一项重要改革举措。理论上,农业直接补贴政策的实施会通过农户行为的传导,最终引起土地利用的变化。而土地利用变化又关乎着资源环境与经济社会的持续发展。因此,本文具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在系统梳理国内外已有相关研究成果和我国农业补贴政策实施现状的基础上,构建了 一个分析农业直接补贴政策对农户土地利用行为影响的理论框架;基于这一框架,分别探讨了农业直接补贴政策实施(主要涉及粮食直补、农资综合补贴、良种补贴和农机具购置补贴等补贴类型)对农户土地投入变化、土地用途调整以及土地利用方式转变等方面的影响机理;然后结合相关理论推演,通过建立计量模型,利用江苏部分典型县市(主要涉及苏南、苏中、苏北部分区县)调查获得的农户数据进行了实证检验;并进一步探讨了农业直接补贴政策对农户土地利用行为影响的区域效应。研究结果显示:(1)从农户土地投入变化的角度来看,理论推演显示农业直接补贴有助于在一定程度上促进农户土地利用规模的扩大;但微观层面上农户调研结果显示,直接补贴对江苏省农户土地利用规模扩大的影响作用并不显著。就各典型区域而言,直接补贴和农资综合补贴在苏中、苏北地区,对于农户土地利用规模的扩大有着显著的正效应。此外,直接补贴在江苏省内,主要是粮食直补和农资综合补贴会对于农户的土地流入行为产生负向的影响。总体来说,农业直接补贴对江苏省农户土地投入变化的作用并不明显;相比苏南和苏中地区,苏北地区补贴政策的实施对农户土地投入变化有着更加显著的影响,模型估计结果也验证了上述观点。(2)从农户土地用途调整的角度来看,实地调查发现部分农户出于对规模化经营的需要和经济效益的追求,会主动将原本的一些闲置用地开发为耕地,从事粮食生产;此外,通过估计农户意愿模型还发现农业直接补贴政策的实施会显著地提高农户扩大粮食种植面积的意愿。在江苏省整体层面,亩均粮食直接补贴总额每增加100元,农户种粮意愿提升的概率增加2%,农资综合补贴总额每增加100元,农户种粮意愿提升的概率增加6%。(3)从农户土地利用方式转变的角度来看,农业直接补贴政策总体上有助于提升江苏省农户集约利用土地的行为,且这种影响在欠发达地区更显著;模型结果显示,农业直接补贴每增加100元,会引致苏北地区的农户增加土地投入9.79元,苏中地区的投入增长为4.67元,苏南地区的投入变化则并不明显。而直接补贴对于农户劳动力的投入影响并不显著,农机购置补贴虽然对于解放农村劳动力有一定积极作用,但并没有对农户的劳动力投入决策产生显著影响。此外,农业直接补贴政策对江苏省农户土地利用效率的提高,作用并不显著,只有良种补贴在苏北地区对于粮食单产的提升起到了一定的积极作用。本文的研究成果对于完善农业直接补贴政策和引导农户合理的土地利用行为有着一定的实践启示作用。并且江苏地处沿海发达地区,省内苏南、苏中和苏北地区间的发展差异也能较好地映射全国的区域发展格局,因此相关研究结论也可为我国其他地区提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to arouse the enthusiasm of the peasantry,promote the grain cultivation,and add the income of the peasantry,direct subsidy policy on agriculture is established as an important reformed measure.Theoretically,the implementation of direct subsidy policy on agriculture will be transmitted through the behaviors of peasantry,finally resulting in the change of the land use that is relevant to the consisting development of resources,environment,and economic society.Therefore,this paper has significance on theory and reality.This paper systematically sorts the relevant existing research results domestic and overseas and present subsidy policy on agriculture in our country,and constructs a theoretical framework of analyzing the influence on peasantry’s land-use behaviors from direct subsidy policy on agriculture.Based on this framework,this paper respectively discusses how the implementation of agricultural direct subsidy policy(mainly including grain direct subsidy,general agricultural materials subsidy,seed subsidy,agricultural machine purchasing subsidy,etc.)changes the land investment and land use methods,and adjusts land use;then,combining with related theories,practically tests the peasantry data obtained from typical cities and counties of Jiangsu Province(mainly a few counties and areas of southern,northern,and central Jiangsu)through building measurement model;finally,further probes the regional effect of agricultural direct subsidy policy on peasantry’s behaviors of land-use.The research result shows:(1)from the perspective of changing land investment,direct subsidy on agriculture benefits the enlargement of land use scale of peasantry;however,from the microcosmic perspective,research result of peasantry shows that the influence of direct subsidy on enlargement of Jiangsu land use scale is not so obvious.In typical regions,direct subsidy and general agricultural materials subsidy in northern and central Jiangsu has a significant positive effect to expand the scale of the peasant household land use.Additionally,direct subsidy in Jiangsu is mainly grain direct subsidy and general agricultural materials subsidy which bring negative effect to land inflow behavior.Generally speaking,the effect of agricultural direct subsidy on land investment in Jiangsu is not obvious;compared with southern and central Jiangsu,subsidy policy in northern area of Jiangsu has more outstanding effect,which is proved by model.(2)From the land use point of view,some peasants would develop idle land as field,take up grain cultivation to pursue economic interest and scale need;besides,through the model of estimating peasants’ willingness,it is discovered that the implementation of agricultural direct subsidy policy can apparently improve the willingness of expanding grain cultivating area.In the whole Jiangsu Province,when total direct subsidy to grain for each additional increases 100 Yuan per mu,the probability of improving the willingness to grain cultivation will incline 2%,and when total agricultural materials subsidy increase 100 Yuan,the probability of improving the willingness to grain cultivation will incline 6%.(3)From the aspect of the change of land use,agricultural direct subsidy policy helps to improve the intensive use behavior of land in Jiangsu in general,and this effect is more remarkable in less developed regions;the model result show that every increased 100 Yuan in agricultural direct subsidy cause 9.79 Yuan increasing in land investment in northern Jiangsu,4.67 Yuan in central Jiangsu,not obvious change in southern Jiangsu.It is not obvious that direct subsidy effects labor investment.In spite of the positive effect on rural labor force liberation,agricultural machine purchasing has no apparent influence on labor putting decision.What’s more,agricultural direct subsidy policy help to improve the land use efficiency of peasants in Jiangsu,however not obvious;only seed subsidy plays a positive role in increasing grain production of northern Jiangsu area.The research result of this paper has some practical inspiration on perfection of agricultural direct subsidy policy and leading peasantry to use land rationally.In addition,because Jiangsu locates in the developed coastal area,the developing difference in southern,central and northern area can reflect the developing situation of the whole country.Consequently,the relevant conclusion can provide the reference for other areas in our country.更多还原