【作者】 王颖；

【导师】 夏海勇；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的发展从高速向低速转移,中国的人口年龄结构也出现了新的特征。最突出的变化就是中国整个社会的老年人口不断增加,而少年人口的增长率不断下降,可以归纳为“少子化”与“老龄化”,这使得劳动人口的经济和精神压力过大,不仅是给家庭带了巨大的经济负担,也给国家和社会带了许多隐患,比如养老金支出不断增加,财政压力逐渐加大,经济增长的持续动力不足。我国目前的医疗卫生以及养老机构等配套措施还没有与人口年龄结构老化的发展速度相匹配,造成了“就医难”、“就医贵”等问题。这些问题都是未来不可避免的社会矛盾。江苏省是社会经济发展走在全国前列的省份,也是一个人口大省,早在1986年,江苏省已经提前进入老龄化社会,比全国提前了 14年,2014年江苏省65岁以上老人占江苏省总人口的比重达到了 12.13%。所以,把握当前江苏省人口发展现状及其发展趋势有重要的指导意义,同时也是实现人口、经济、社会协调可持续发展的重要基础。本文首先是对人口年龄结构的定义以及国内外相关人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响的文章进行了梳理,从理论和实证两方面来分析前人对这个问题的观点和相关研究。因为本文研究的是江苏省的人口年龄结构变化的经济效应,所以通过与全国的人口年龄结构的数据进行比较,发现江苏省的年龄结构变化更为突出,少子化和老龄化的现象更为严重。同时根据相关数据对江苏省人口年龄结构变化特征进行总结:首先,江苏省出生率的下降速度远远大于死亡率的上升速度。其次,江苏省人口年龄结构的老化在短期内不会改变。最后,江苏省内人口年龄结构地区差异较大。然后,文章通过理论模型研究和实证研究,证明人口年龄结构通过储蓄、劳动生产率以及产出对经济增长产生影响。本文通过把人口结构因素纳入Solow模型中进行理论研究以及实证结果表明:第一,人口年龄结构的老化目前不会改变江苏省经济的发展方向,但若人口红利消失,人口年龄结构的老化对经济增长的负效应将会显现;第二,少年抚养比对储蓄有弱的负向影响,老年抚养比对储蓄的影响是正向的;第三、目前阶段,人口年龄结构的老化对劳动生产率具有正向的影响。最后,根据研究得出的结论,提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic development and China’s economy shifts from high to low,China’s population structure is also the emergence of new features.The most prominent change is the aging population of Chinese society continues to increase,while the growth rate of the juvenile population has been declining,which makes people work with too much pressure.This change in structure is not only to families with a huge economic burden,but also to the state and society took some risks,Such as pension noted increasing financial pressure gradually increased,sustained economic growth,lack of motivation.Supporting measures our current health care,pension institutions have not matched the rate of aging,resulting in a"medical treatment is difficult," "doctor expensive" and other issues.These issues are the future of social conflict is inevitable.Jiangsu Province is the socio-economic development in the nation’s provinces,is a populous,early in 1986,Jiangsu Province has advanced into an aging society,14 years earlier than the national.Jiangsu Province in 2013 over 65 years old accounted for the proportion of the total population of Jiangsu Province reached 13.38%.Grasp the current situation and its development trend of population development in Jiangsu Province is important to know the meaning,but also an important basis for achieving demographic,economic,and social sustainability.This paper elaborates the definitions about age structure population and summarizes research findings about the changes of age structure population on economic growth from home and abroad.Because of the study which is about the economic effects of the changing age structure of the population in Jiangsu Province,the country’s population by the age structure of the data is compared and found that changes in the age structure is more prominent in Jiangsu Province.Low birth rate and aging phenomenon is more serious.According to the data about changing age structure of the population in Jiangsu Province,we can summarize the following features:First,birth rate declines much faster than the increase in mortality rate in Jiangsu.Second,the aging of the population age structure in Jiangsu Province will not change in the short term.Finally,large differences between regions about the population age structure in Jiangsu.Then,throughout theoretical models and empirical studies,the article proves that the age structure of the population affects the growth of economy through savings,labor productivity and output.In this paper,the demographic factors into the Solow model theoretical research and empirical results show that:first,the aging of the population age structure will not change the current direction of economic growth of Jiangsu Province,but if the demographic dividend disappear,the aging of the population age structure of the economy negative effects on growth will appear;Second,juvenile dependency ratio for saving a weak negative influence,the impact on savings of the elderly dependency ratio is positive;Finally,the aging of the population age structure of labor productivity has a positive to impact in current period.According to the conclusions we put forward relevant policy recommendations.更多还原