【作者】 王杰；

【导师】 贾湖； 于庆军；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工业工程， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,全球温室效应不断加剧,引发的能源、环境和气候问题日益凸显。《巴黎协定》的签署体现出世界各国协同应对气候变化的坚定决心,作为缔约国之一,中国积极推进国内的碳减排工作,承诺到2030年本国的二氧化碳排放量将达到峰值。高耗能行业具有高能耗、高排放的特点,其碳排放量占到中国工业总碳排放量的70%左右,因此,对高耗能行业发展中碳排放的脱钩状况、碳排放变化的影响因素进行研究具有十分重要的意义。本文对中国高耗能行业2000-2015年间的数据进行了研究,分析了中国高耗能行业碳排放与产业增加值在研究期间内的脱钩状态的变化过程,探究了中国高耗能行业碳排放的影响因子及影响程度。首先,本文核算了2000-2015年间中国高耗能行业各年的能源消耗量及二氧化碳排放量,构建出研究期间内中国高耗能行业的能源消耗及碳排放的变化趋势。结果显示,二者总体上都呈现出快速上升的发展态势。基于核算出的碳排放数据和高耗能行业历年的产业增加值数据,使用Tapio脱钩模型对中国高耗能行业碳排放的脱钩状态进行研究。结果表明,研究期间内,中国高耗能行业碳排放的脱钩状况呈现出从扩张性负脱钩阶段经过缓慢调整阶段逐步过渡到弱脱钩阶段的发展态势,强脱钩虽然有所体现,但不明显。进一步,运用LMDI分解方法对2000-2015年间中国高耗能行业碳排放的影响因子及影响程度进行了研究。涉及的影响因子包括:能源结构影响因子、能源强度影响因子、产业结构影响因子、产业活动影响因子和产业规模影响因子。研究发现,产业活动影响因子对高耗能行业碳排放的促进作用最强,产业规模影响因子的促进作用次之;能源强度影响因子对高耗能行业碳排放具有显著抑制作用;能源结构影响因子和产业结构影响因子对高耗能行业碳排放的影响有限,总体上起到一定促进作用。最后,基于Tapio脱钩结果和碳排放影响因素研究结果,本文对中国高耗能行业碳减排提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the global greenhouse effect has been aggravated,and the energy,environment and climate problems have become increasingly prominent.The signing of the Paris Agreement reflects the firm determination of all countries in the world to coordinate their efforts to deal with climate change.As one of the parties,China actively promotes domestic carbon emission reduction and promises to reach a peak in its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.Energy-intensive industry has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high emissions,and its carbon emissions account for about 70% of the total carbon emissions of China’s industry.Therefore,it is of great significance to study decoupling relationship and influencing factors of carbon emissions of energyintensive industry.This paper studies the data of China’s energy-intensive industry from 2000 to 2015,analyses the process of decoupling between carbon emissions and industrial value-added of China’s energy-intensive industry during the study period,and explores the influence factors and degree of carbon emissions of China’s energyintensive industry.Firstly,this paper calculates the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of China’s energy-intensive industry from 2000 to 2015,and constructs the variation tendency of energy consumption and carbon emissions of China’s energy-intensive industry during the research period.The results show that both have shown a rapid upward trend in general.Based on the calculated carbon emission data and industrial value-added data of energy-intensive industry over the years,the decoupling status of carbon emissions in energy-intensive industry was studied by using Tapio decoupling model.The results show that during the period of study,the decoupling status of carbon emissions in China’s energy-intensive industry presents a development trend from the expansive negative decoupling stage to the weak decoupling stage through slow adjustment stage.Although strong decoupling has ever appeared,it is not obvious.Further,the LMDI decomposition method is used to study the impact factors and degree of carbon emissions in China’s energy-intensive industry from 2000 to 2015.The influence factors include: energy structure factor,energy intensity factor,industrial structure factor,industrial activity factor and industrial scale factor.It is found that the influence of industrial activity factor have the strongest promoting effect on carbon emissions in energy-intensive industry,followed by the influence of industrial scale factor;the influence of energy intensity factor have a significant inhibition effect on carbon emissions in energy-intensive industry;energy structure factor and industrial structure factor have limited effect on carbon emissions,and both play a small role in promoting.Finally,based on the results of Tapio decoupling and the research of influence factors on carbon emissions,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for carbon emission reduction in China’s energy-intensive industry.更多还原