【作者】 赵丽丽；

【导师】 张永安；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 战略管理（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 我国期货行业探索发展至今已近30年,2011年在国家政策的引导下,期货公司资产管理业务应运而生,并快速发展,截止2017年底,期货行业净资本达到750.12亿元,同比增长9.54%,其中创新业务收入占比达到12.49%,全行业149家期货公司中,有129家期货公司可以开展资产管理业务。数据统计结果显示,期货行业正处于快速发展时期,证券机构的营业总额已经突破26万亿元,其中证券公司及其子公司约14.92万亿元,基金公司及其子公司约10.83万亿元,期货公司及其子公司约1600亿元。期货公司资产管理业务存续产品3644只,管理规模2792亿元。期货公司资产管理业务投资品种广泛,交易灵活,加之套期保值、风险对冲等特点,所以在期货公司多元化经营、风险管理、服务供给侧结构性改革、金融创新等方面有战略意义。但是与其他金融机构相比期货公司资产管理业务呈现出规模过小,限制较多,盈利能力弱,专业人才缺乏及研发力量不足等特点,因而在新市场,新业务,高竞争,强监管的环境下,个别机构偏离资产管理业务本源,在主动管理不足,合规风控意识较差的情况下,还盲目扩张业务,暴露出一些风险点。因此本文结合期货公司资产管理业务面临的风险,以全面风险管理论为基础,对H期货公司资产管理业务进行风险评价研究。首先,通过公司调查问卷和咨询专家的方法,识别筛选出适合期货公司资产管理业务风险评价的6大类一级和22个二级风险因子,进一步建立合理的风险评价指标体系;其次,利用层分析法和专家打分法相结合,确定H期货公司及标杆对比公司各级风险评价指标的权重;再次,按照层次建立模糊数学矩阵,计算H期货公司、永安期货、中财期货三家期货公司风险评价值的大小,并对风险综合对比评价;最后,针对评估出来的风险因素,结合相关理论提出H期货公司资产管理业务防范措施。希望该研究对期货公司资产管理业务的可持续发展有所裨益。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has been nearly 30 years since China’s futures industry exploredand developedin China.In 2011,under the guidance of national policies,the asset management business of futures companies came into being and developed rapidly.By the end of 2017,the net capital of the futures industry was 750.12 billion yuan,up9.54 percent year-on-year,with the proportion of innovative business income reaching12.49 percent,and 129 futures companies out of 149 futures companies in the whole industry could carry out asset management business.By the end of June 2018,the size of the private asset management business of the securities and futures operation institution totaled 26 trillion yuan,of which the securities company and its subsidiaries accounted for 14.92 trillion yuan,the fund company and its subsidiaries accounted for 10.83 trillion yuan,the futures company and its subsidiaries stood at about 16 billion yuan.The asset management business of the futures company has3,644 surviving products,with a management scale of 279.2 billion yuan.The asset management business of futures companies has a wide range of investment types,flexible trading,risk hedging and other characteristics,so it has strategic significance in diversified operation,risk management,service supply side structural reform,financial innovation and other aspects of futures companies.However,compared with other financial institutions,the asset management business of futures companies is characterized by too small scale,too many restrictions,weak profitability,lack of professional talents and insufficient research and development strength.Therefore,in the new market,new business,high competition and strong supervision environment,some institutions deviate from the source of asset management business,have poor compliance risk control awareness,blindly expanding business,lack of active management and weak risk control.Therefore,based on the risk faced by the asset management business of futures companies,this paper studies the risk evaluation of the asset management business of H futures companies on the basis of the comprehensive risk management theory.Firstly,By referring to the corporate literature and using the method of questionnaire survey six major categories and 22 secondary risk factors suitable for the risk assessment of asset management business of futures companies were identified and screened,and a reasonable risk assessment index system was further established.Secondly,the weight of risk evaluation indexes at all levels is determined by the combination of analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method.Thirdly,the fuzzy mathematical matrix is established according to the hierarchy to calculate the overall risk,and the risk is sorted and evaluated comprehensively.Finally,based onthe evaluation results and related theories,the improvement plan and measures for the asset management business development of H futures company are proposed.It is hoped that this study will be beneficial to the sustainable development of the asset management business of futures companies更多还原