【作者】 李丹；

【导师】 骆珣；

【作者基本信息】 北京理工大学 ， 工商管理（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 中国的钢铁行业是“去产能”的重点行业,须在2016到2020年的4年间淘汰1~1.5亿吨粗钢产能。由此造成的多余装备制造能力、二手装备、产业资金和专业人才都需国外市场和海外投资项目承接。中国钢铁行业于2017年初成立了国际产能合作企业联盟(简称“Z联盟”)。本文从该行业联盟的高度,为所有成员构建了一个符合本行业海外投资项目实际情况的风险评价框架,并且将该框架在一个莫桑比克钢铁项目的尽职调查中进行了实践应用。Z联盟预计其成员单位的海外投资项目大部分将分布在一带一路沿线的欠发达国家和地区。针对此类项目的风险评价将面临国别市场资产证券化水平低、缺乏相同或类似项目交易数据的硬约束。在此约束下,发端于金融证券业的计算机辅助风险价值估算法无法适用到Z联盟的海外投资项目中。针对Z联盟的海外投资项目特点和上述约束,本文构建了以风险识别为重心的风险评价框架。该风险评价框架包括风险识别、风险评估量化和风险管控三个步骤。风险识别以建立最广泛和专业的风险库为目标,在对风险进行二级分解构建检查表的同时,利用第三方机构进行分领域调研。风险评估量化采用专家研究法,按德尔菲法对所有风险因子进行评估和打分,并绘制风险地图。风险管控须保证每一个风险因子都有对应的解决方案。Z联盟层面的风险评价边界即上述“有对策的风险地图”。在此基础上,各成员企业须根据各自的风险处置能力和风险偏好作出各自的风险决策。钢铁行业的海外投资项目风险评价体系一定要符合本行业的实际情况,要正视缺乏历史交易数据硬约束。在此约束下的风险分析框架须以风险识别为重心,而非风险评估量化;行业联盟层面的风险分析框架宜以“有对策的风险地图”为边界,将进一步的风险决策交给各成员单位。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese steel industry is required to remove 100 to 150 million tons crude steel production capacity from 2016 to 2020.The excessive equipment making capacity,industrial funds and skilled labor need to be channeled into overseas markets.In 2017,the China Steel Industry International Cooperation Alliance(abbr.Z Alliance)is established.This thesis builds a customized Risk Analysis Framework for Z Alliance’s overseas investment projects,followed by an application in a due diligence investigation of a Mozambique Steel Project.Most of Z Alliance’s overseas investment target markets are developing countries along the one belt one road.This results in a constraint of lack of historical data of identical or similar investment projects.With this constraint,this thesis builds a customized risk analysis framework for Z Alliance instead of rigidly utilizing the computer aided valuation at risk method based on statistics theories.This customized risk analysis framework prioritizes risk identification meanwhile integrates risk assessment and mitigation all together.Step One Risk Identification is set to establish a comprehensive risk inventory.Risk check lists are compiled under eight WBS secondary risk factors,based on which different third party consultancies are employed to run field investigations.Step Two Risk Assessment adopts Delphi Method to score all risk factors in two dimensions –likelihood and consequence severity.A risk map is drawn to qualitatively show the general risk level.Step Three Risk Mitigation ensures every factor has its solution.The boundary of Z Alliance’s risk analysis framework is the risk map with solutions.The member enterprises in Z Alliance are expected to conduct further research in light of their own risk mitigation capability and risk preference.The hard constraint of lack of historical data is the root of the risk analysis framework customization for Chinese steel industry’s overseas investments.Risk identification of the framework is to be prioritized under this constraint.The Alliance and its members’ risk analysis work boundary is set at the point of the risk map with solutions.更多还原