【作者】 李婷；

【导师】 王绍媛；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化不断深化,国际分工发展迅速,全球价值链也应运而生。近年来,各国跨国企业为了寻求高收益,在全球范围内组织投资与并购等经济活动,加速资本在国际间流动,对外直接投资逐步成为各国扩张产业和抢占世界资源的重要手段。制造业作为中国产业的基石,是中国经济发展的重要支柱。中国制造业长期依靠人口红利和要素资源优势,大量承接全球劳动密集型产业的生产活动,处在全球价值链生产下游,并有陷入“低端锁定”和“贫困化增长”陷阱的趋势。在此国内外经济发展背景下,探究对外直接投资对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响,对提高中国对外直接投资利用率,促进中国制造业全球价值链地位攀升,推动产业结构升级具有重要意义。本文使用了理论分析法、比较分析法和实证分析法三种研究方法。首先,通过对以往文献回顾与梳理,总结全球价值链的概念和相关理论,并归纳发展中国家的对外直接投资理论,在此基础上进一步分析对外直接投资对全球价值链地位产生影响的机理与路径。一般而言,对外直接投资可通过战略资产获取效应、边际产业转移效应和市场内部化效应对全球价值链地位的攀升起促进作用,也可能通过产业空心化效应和壁垒障碍效应抑制全球价值链地位的攀升。其次,本文在细分中国制造业的基础上,从价值增值、技术和物理长度角度总结了三种测算全球价值链地位的方法,分别是全球价值链分工地位指标法、增加值的出口技术复杂度和全球价值链位置指标法。并进一步利用WIOD数据库、UIBE GVC Index数据库和世界银行数据库,根据上述三种方法分别测算了 2003-2014年中国制造业的全球价值链地位及国际排名,全面而客观地展示了中国制造业全球价值链地位现状。然后,通过实证回归探究对外直接投资对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响。分别选取全球价值链分工地位指标、增加值的出口技术复杂度和全球价值链位置指标三种不同的代理变量来表示中国制造业全球价值链地位。结果显示,对外直接投资能够对中国制造业全球价值链分工地位和增加值的出口技术复杂度产生正向影响,而对中国制造业的全球价值链位置产生显著负向影响,本文参考高翔、黄建忠和袁凯华(2019)和苏庆义、高凌云(2015)的观点,认为行业的全球价值链位置可能会对其出口增加值率起到抑制作用,而对外直接投资会通过战略资产获取等效应提升出口产品的国内增加值,进而促进全球价值链地位的上升。故从经济增值角度来看,对外直接投资与全球价值链位置呈负相关,表明对外直接投资能促进全球价值链地位的上升。同时,实证结果显示,研发强度、人力资本、行业资本存量和行业规模能促进中国制造业全球价值链地位的上升,而行业开放程度对其产生抑制作用。此外,又进一步考察了对外直接投资对中国不同技术水平的制造业全球价值链地位的影响,结果显示对外直接投资对中国中低技术和高技术制造业的全球价值链地位产生的影响效果比对低技术制造业的影响效果更大。最后,本文对促进中国制造业攀升全球价值链地位提出了四点政策建议:一是稳步引导中国投资结构合理化;二是促进中国深度参与国际投资;三是重视研发能力与专业人才的培养;四是大力推动智能制造带动产业升级。本文的创新点主要有两点:第一,研究内容上,本文在细分中国制造业的基础上,从价值增值、技术和物理长度三个维度入手,通过构建全球价值链分工地位指标、增加值的出口技术复杂度和全球价值链位置指标,多角度、全方位分析中国制造业的全球价值链地位现状及国际排名。第二,研究方法上,本文分别选取全球价值链分工地位指标法、增加值的出口技术复杂度和全球价值链位置三种不同的代理变量来表示中国制造业全球价值链地位,并利用基准回归和稳健性检验实证探究对外直接投资对中国制造业全球价值链地位影响,并进一步考察对外直接投资对中国低技术制造业、中低技术制造业和高技术制造业的全球价值链地位的不同影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of international division of labor,economic globalization is deepened and Global Value Chain emerge.In recent years,many multinational enterpriSes organized economic activities such as investment,mergers and acquisition among the world which accelerated the international flow of capital.And OFDI has gradually become an important way for countries to expand industries and seize world resources.As the cornerstone of China’s industry,manufacturing industry is an important pillar of China’s economic development.China’s manufacturing industry has relied on the demographic dividend and the advantage of resources to undertake a large number of labor-intensive industrial production in the world for a long time.It is at the lower end of the Global Value Chain and tends to fall into the trap of "low-end locking" and "poverty growth".In this context,taking China’s manufacturing industry as an example,it is of great significance to study the influence of OFDI on GVC position,which can improve China’s OFDI efficiency,improve the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry,and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.This paper uses three methods including theoretical analysis,contrasting analysis and test analysis.First,by retrospecting and sorting out the previous literature,this paper summarizes the theory of Global Value Chain and the theory of OFDI of developing countries,and analyzes the influence of OFDI on the GVC position.lt holds that OFDI can promote the GVC position through the effect of strategic asset acquisition,marginal industry transferring and market internalization.But it may also restrain the GVC position through the effect of industry hollowing and barrier.Second,three methods of measuring the GVC position are summarized from the perspectives of value,technology and physical length,which are the GVC position indicator,the GVC_prody and the GVC location indicator respectively.Moreover,WIOD database,UIBE GVC Index database and World Bank database are further used to respectively calculate the GVC position and international ranking of China,s manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2014 according to the above three methods.By multi-angle analysis of the manufacturing industry of China to show its present situation and the international rank of GVC position.Then,the paper explores the influence of OFDI on the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry through empirical regression.Three different proxy variables which are the indicator of GVC position,GVC_prody and the GVC location are selected to represent the GVC position of China’s manufacturing.According to the results,OFDI has a positive influence on the GVC position and the GVC_prody of China manufacturing industry,while it has a significant negative impact of the GVC location.By the view of Gao Xiang et al(2019)and Su Qingyi et al(2015),GVC location may inhibit the rate of value added.But OFDI can promote the domestic added value through the effect of the acquisition of strategic assets.Therefore,in the view of economic appreciation,OFDI can promote GVC position.At the same time,R&D intensity,human capital,industry capital stock and industry scale can promote the GVC position of manufacturing,while openness can inhibit it.In addition,the influence of OFDI on the GVC position of manufacturing industry at different technological levels is further investigated.And the results show that OFDI has a more significant effect on the GVC position of medium-tech and high-tech manufacturing industry than that of low-tech.Finally,this paper puts forward four policy suggestions on improving GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry.First,steadily guide the rationalization of China’s investment structure.Second,to promote China’s deep participation in international investment.Third,attach importance to the cultivation of R&D and professional talents.Fourth,to vigorously promote intelligent manufacturing to drive industrial upgrading.There are two innovation in this Paper.On one hand,select three methods to measure the GVC position from the value,technology and physical length dimension,which are the GVC position indicators,GVC_prody and GVC location.Multi-angle and comprehensive analysis of the manufacturing industry can show more about its GVC position.On the other hand,in the process of studying the influence of OFDI on the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry,three different proxy variables which are the GVC position,GVC_prody and the GVC location are selected to represent the GVC position of China’s manufacturing.In addition,the influence of OFDI on the GVC position of manufacturing industry at different technological levels is further investigated.更多还原