【作者】 杨宁；

【导师】 田成诗；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 全球变暖和水资源短缺是世界各国普遍关注的问题,我国作为传统的农业大国,农业增加值逐年增加,但生产模式较为单一,农业生产导致的温室气体大量排放,水消费量在全国总消费量中占比最大。在气候变暖和水资源短缺的问题日益严峻的大背景下,探索低碳、节水的农业发展模式对建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会有着重大意义。大量碳排放和水消费将会影响生态系统中碳循环与水循环的相互作用,导致自然灾害频发,影响农业的生产,探索农业碳排放、水消费的关系对保持农业生态系统稳定和保障农业生产至关重要。同时农业碳源的排放通常伴随着水资源的使用,探索农业碳排放、水消费和增加值的关系可以促进环境、资源和农业的协调发展。本文先对我国2003-2017年31个省市的农业碳排放量进行测算,然后基于农业碳排放和水消费数据,将探索性空间数据分析法(ESDA)与环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论基础上的空间计量模型相结合,对我国农业碳排放和农业水消费的空间效应进行可视化与量化分析。将Tapio脱钩理论与环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论基础上的空间计量模型相结合,对中国农业碳排放、水消费和增加值之间的关系进行研究,最后根据文章实证结果提出建议。通过分析结果显示:我国农业碳排放总量和水消费总量均具有一定的波动性,农业碳排放强度和水消费强度均呈下降趋势。由于气候环境和资源禀赋的差异,农业碳排放和水消费均具有显著的空间效应:2017年碳排放形成了 2个显著的“高-高”型聚集区和2个“低-高”型聚集区,水消费形成了 3个“高-高”型聚集区和2个“低-低”型聚集区,碳排放和水消费均具有明显的两极分化现象,且水消费的两极分化更为突出。空间计量模型结果显示,我国农业碳排放存在U型库兹涅茨曲线,但2017年农业碳排放和农业增加值的脱钩关系显示有15个省市表现为强脱钩,即人均农业增加值增加,碳排放减小,说明虽然目前处于库兹涅茨曲线的上升阶段,但是随着各省市的不断努力,有望实现农业的低碳发展。农业水消费存在倒U型库兹涅茨曲线,但2017年农业水消费和农业增加值的脱钩关系仍有14个省市表现为负脱钩,即农业增加值减少,水消费增加,3个省市表现为扩张性脱钩,即农业增加值增加,水消费量大幅增加,说明即使现在农业水消费处于库兹涅茨曲线的下降阶段,但情况依然不容乐观。农业碳排放和水消费均存在着正向的空间溢出效应,临近地区碳排放强度增加1%,本地区的碳排放强度平均增加0.26%;临近地区水消费强度增加1%,本地区的水消费强度平均增加0.37%。农业碳排放和水消费之间存在着双向的正效应,水消费强度增加1%,碳排放强度平均增加0.76%;碳排放强度每增加1%,水消费强度平均增加0.38%。本文的创新之处:第一,考虑了环境和资源之间的影响,同时将农业碳排放和农业水消费放在库兹涅茨曲线理论之下进行分析,可以同时评价农业经济发展过程中的资源利用效率和对环境的污染水平以及资源和环境之间的相互影响作用。第二,较为全面的对农业碳排放进行测算,将探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)和EKC空间计量模型相结合,不仅可以总体上来看碳排放和水消费的空间效应,同时可以从各省市内部查看聚集效应,还对具体的影响程度进行量化分析。第三,将脱钩理论和EKC理论相结合,可以较为全面的对农业碳排放、农业水消费和农业经济发展之间的关系进行研究。本文存在的不足之处:第一,在碳排放的测算过程中,没有考虑国内外的差异以及国外研究的碳排放系数所带来的不确定性。第二,在进行农业碳排放和水消费研究时,主要分析了种植业和畜禽养殖业,并未对渔业和林业进行分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warning and water shortage are the common concerns of all countries in the world.As a traditional agricultural country,China’s agricultural added value has increased year by year,but the production model is relatively simple,the greenhouse gas emissions caused by agricultural production are large,and the ratio of water consumption is largest.Under the background of increasingly severe problems of climate warning and water shortage,exploring low-carbon and water-saving agricultural development models is of great significance for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.A large amount of carbon emissions and water consumption will affect the interaction between the carbon cycle and the water cycle in the ecosystem,leading to frequent natural disasters and affecting agricultural production.Exploring the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption is critical to maintaining the stability of agricultural ecosystems and ensuring agricultural production.At the same time,the emission of agricultural carbon sources is usually accompanied by the use of water resources.Exploring the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions,water consumption and added value can promote the coordinated development of the environment,resources and agriculture.First this paper calculates the agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2017.Then based on agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption data,the exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA)is combined with the spatial metric model based on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)theory to visualize and quantify the spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural water consumption in China.The Tapio decoupling theory is combined with the spatial metric model based on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)theory to study the relationship between China’s agricultural carbon emissions,water consumption and added value.Finally,based on the empirical results of the article to make recommendations.The analysis results show that China’s agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption have a certain degree of volatility,and both agricultural carbon intensity and water consumption intensity show a downward trend.Due to differences in climate and resource endowments,both agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption have significant spatial effects.In 2017,carbon emissions formed two significant "high-high" clusters and two "low-high" clusters,water consumption formed three "high-high" clusters and two "low-low" clusters,carbon emissions and water consumption have obvious polarization,and the polarization of water consumption is more prominent.The results of the spatial econometric model show that there is a U-Kuznets curve for agricultural carbon emissions in China,but the decoupling relationship between carbon agricultural emissions and agricultural added value in 2017 shows that 15 provinces and cities have strong decoupling,the increase in per capita agricultural value and the decrease in carbon emissions.Although the Kuznets curve is currently rising,with the continuous efforts of various provinces and cities,it is expected to achieve low carbon development in agriculture.There is an inverted U-Kuznets curve for agricultural water consumption,but the decoupling relationship between agricultural water consumption and agricultural added value in 2017 is negative decoupling in 14 provinces and cities,the increase in agricultural value added and the increase in water consumption.Three provinces and cities showed an expansionary decoupling,the increase in agricultural added value and the significant increase in water consumption.Even though agricultural water consumption is now in the decline phase of the Kuznets curve,the situation is still not optimistic.There is a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption.The carbon emission intensity in the adjacent area increased by 1%,and the carbon emission intensity in the region increased by 0.26%on average.The water consumption intensity in the adjacent area increased by 1%,and the water consumption intensity in the region increased by of 0.37%on average.There is a two-way positive effect between agricultural carbon emission and water consumption.The water consumption intensity increased by 1%,and the carbon emission intensity increased by of 0.76%on average.The carbon emission intensity increased by 1%,and water consumption intensity increased by of 0.38%on average.The innovation of this paper:First,considering the impact between environment and resources,and analyzing agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural water consumption under the Kuznets curve theory.It is possible to simultaneously evaluate the resource utilization efficiency and the level of pollution to the environment and the interaction between resources and the environment in the process of agricultural economic development.Second,more comprehensive measurement of agricultural carbon emissions.Combining the exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA)with the EKC spatial econometric model,not only can the overall spatial effect of carbon emissions and water consumption be observed,but also the aggregation effect can be viewed from within the provinces and cities,and the specific degree of impact can be quantified.Third,combining the decoupling theory with the EKC theory can provide a more comprehensive study of the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions,agricultural water consumption,and agricultural economic development.The shortcomings of this paper:First,in the process of measuring carbon emissions,the differences between domestic and foreign countries and the carbon emission factors of foreign studies are not considered.Second,in the study of agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption,the main analysis of crop farming and livestock and poultry farming did not analyze fisheries and forestry.更多还原