节点文献
风光互补发电系统负荷预测以及最大功率跟踪的研究
Research on Load Forecasting and Maximum Power Tracking of Wind Solar Complementary Generation System
【作者】 王晓燕；
【作者基本信息】 扬州大学 ， 动力工程（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士
【摘要】 随着我国经济快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,社会对能源需求的压力不断加大,而以煤、石油为代表的常规能源储量则会以更快的速度萎缩并最终导致枯竭。另外,我们必须清醒的认识到,常规能源体系在推动经济快速发展的同时,也带来了一系列严重的问题,比如环境污染、生态系统破坏等等。在能源危机和环境污染的压力下,人们越来越关注绿色能源,可再生能源已成为一个比较理想的选择。在这种大背景下,以风电、太阳能为代表的清洁能源,在世界许多国家都得到了迅速发展,倍受人们的青睐。由于风能和太阳能具有互补性,所以风光互补发电系统在技术上就成为可能。本文主要研究对象为风光互补发电系统,主要从负荷预测以及最大功率跟踪两方面着手研究。精确预测风光互补发电系统的负荷,可以经济合理的对系统内部的发电机启停进行设计,确保系统运行的安全稳定,同时还可以有效的降低发电成本,提高经济效益和社会效益。根据风光互补发电系统的历史负荷数据,采用传统的GM(1,1)模型对数据进行分析,发现传统的GM(1,1)模型不能满足精度的要求。提出了含参线性函数的变换法对传统的GM(1,1)模型进行改进,对2016-2017年风光互补发电系统的负荷进行预测。预测结果表明改进GM(1,1)模型可以用来精确的预测风光互补发电系统的负荷,以便于最大功率跟踪的研究。本文重点分析了几种常用的最大功率跟踪算法,总结不同算法的优势和劣势,在传统控制算法的基础上,加以改进,提出适于光伏发电系统的新型最大功率跟踪方法以及适于风能发电的新型最大功率跟踪控制方法。对于光伏发电系统,在基于恒压法、扰动观察法、电导增量法优点的基础上,采用了新型变步长最大功率跟踪控制策略(CPI法)。对于风能发电系统,结合变步长最大功率算法的基础上,利用了基于模糊PID控制的最大功率跟踪算法。最后结合光伏发电系统最大功率跟踪仿真模型和风力发电系统最大功率跟踪仿真模型,在MATLAB中建立风光互补发电系统最大功率跟踪仿真模型,仿真结果表明,所采用的最大功率跟踪控制策略具有良好的控制效果,并使风光互补发电系统稳定的输出功率。
【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China,s economy and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards,the social pressure on energy demand is increasing,while the conventional energy reserves represented by coal and oil will shrink at a faster rate and eventually lead to depletion.In addition,we must be soberly aware that while the conventional energy system not only promotes the rapid eeonomic development,but also brings a series of serious problems,such as environmental pollution,ecosystem destruction and so on.Under the pressure of energy crisis and environmental pollution,people pay more and more attention to green energy,renewable energy has become an ideal choice.In this context,the Qing Dynasty,represented by wind power and solar energy,is represented by wind power and solar energy.Clean energy,in many countries in the world has been rapid development,favored by people.Because wind energy and solar energy are complementary,wind and solar complementary power generation system is technically possible.The main research object of this paper is the wind complementary power generation system,mainly from two aspects of load forecasting and maximum power tracking.Accurate prediction of the load of the wind and wind complementary power generation system can economically and reasonably design the generator start and stop within the system to ensiure the safety and stability of the operation of the system,at the same time,it can effectively reduce the cost of power generation and improve the economic and social benefits.According to the historical load data of scenery complementary power generation system,the traditional GM(1,1)model is used to analyze the data,and it is found that the traditional GM(1,1)model can not meet the requirements of accuracy.The transformation method with parameter linear function is proposed to improve the traditional GM(1,1)model,and the load of wind complementary power generation system in 2016/2017 is predicted..The prediction results show that the improved GM(1,1)model can be used to accurately predict the load of wind-wind complementary power generation system,so as to facilitate the study of maximum power tracking.In this paper,several common maximum power tracking algorithms are analyzed,and the advantages and disadvantages of different algorithms are summarized.On the basis of the traditional control algorithl,a new maximum power tracking method suitable for photovoltaic power generation system and a new maximum power tracking control method suitable for wind power generation are proposed.For photovoltaic power generation system,a new variable step size maximum power tracking control strategy(CPI method)is adopted on the basis of the advantages of constant voltage method,disturbance observation method and conductivity increment method.For wind power generation system,combined with variable step size maximum power algorithm,the maximum power tracking based on fuzzy PID control is used.The algorithm.and finally,combining the maximum power tracking simulation model of the photovoltaic power generation system and the maximum power tracking simulation model of the wind power generation system,and establishing a maximum power tracking simulation model of the wind-light complementary power generation system in the MATLAB,The maximum power tracking control strategy adopted has a good control effect,And make the scenery complementary power generation system stable output power.