【作者】 刘伟；

【导师】 党伟；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放40多年来,伴随对外贸易的快速发展,中国已经成为当今世界第一出口大国和第二进口大国,在国际贸易的舞台中占据着举足轻重的地位。其中,中国的出口贸易在中国外向型经济发展模式下尤为重要,是中国经济崛起的先锋兵,为中国整体经济发展起着压舱石的作用。2013年国家主席习近平提出的“一带一路”发展倡议,是新时期下进一步深化我国对外开放,拓宽我国出口贸易渠道的重要发展战略,借助“一带一路”倡议,中国积极与“一带一路”沿线国家开展出口贸易,解决国内产能过剩,促进企业转型升级,为中国经济发展提供新的动力。然而,“一带一路”跨越亚欧非三大洲,囊括国家众多,其沿线各国政治、经济环境千差万别,既有社会主义,资本主义国家,又有发达,发展中和最不发达国家。各国不同政治、经济环境背后隐藏着较高的国家风险。国家风险的存在将是“一带一路”战略顺利开展所面临的严峻挑战,是今后“一带一路”战略推行与建设的重大隐患,国家必须从战略层面制定有效的风险防控措施。关于国家风险的研究,学界早已有之,从最初的一国政治风险研究到如今涵盖政治,经济金融等综合风险的研究,学者们将国家风险引入国际贸易研究领域,打破了传统国际贸易理论的研究格局,为国际贸易的研究提供了新的思维与方向。考虑到关于国家风险的研究学者主要集中在国际信贷与国际投资两个角度,对出口贸易的研究相对较少,同时,研究主要集中在风险水平的高低,鲜有对不同国家间风险差异的研究,故本文通过指标测算,测度国家风险水平高低,研究国家风险水平对中国出口“一带一路”贸易的影响,并进一步利用欧式距离公式测度中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的风险差异,进行差异现状分析,是对国家风险与国际贸易关系研究的有益补充,也是对国家风险差异研究的有益探讨。本文通过梳理现有学者关于国家风险的研究,并在理论分析的基础之上,将国家风险分为政治风险与经济金融风险两部分,将其引入贸易引力模型,对贸易引力模型进行扩展。结合数据的可获得性与样本的代表性,选取了“一带一路”沿线48国2003-2016年的面板数据进行实证回归,以中国对“一带一路”沿线这48国出口贸易量为被解释变量,量化样本国的国家风险水平并将其作为核心解释变量,以传统的国民生产总值、人口、国家间地理距离等为控制变量,进行实证回归,检验国家风险水平对中国出口“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的影响。在理论分析国家风险对出口贸易呈现不确定性的情况下,通过实证检验,发现具体到“一带一路”国家,沿线各国国家风险水平显著阻碍中国对其出口贸易的开展。结合理论分析与实证结果,本文提出从政府、企业两个层面制定出口风险防控措施,保障中国对“一带一路”沿线各国出口贸易的顺利开展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,along with the rapid development of foreign trade,China has become the world’s largest exporting country and the second largest importing country,occupying a pivotal position in the international trade arena.Among them,China’s export trade is particularly important in China’s export-oriented economic development model.It is a pioneer in China’s economic rise and plays a role in the overall economic development of China.In 2013,President Xi Jinping’s "The Belt and Road" development initiative is an important development strategy for further deepening China’s opening-up and broadening China’s export trade channels in the new era.With the"The Belt and Road" initiative,China actively carries out export trade with countries along the "The Belt and Road" to solve domestic overcapacity,promote transformation and upgrading of enterprises,and provide new power for China’s economic development.However,"The Belt and Road" spans the three continents of Asia,Europe and Africa,including a large number of countries.The political and economic environment varies greatly from country to country.There are socialist,capitalist,developed,developing and least developed countries.Different political and economic environments in different countries hide high national risks.The existence of national risks will be a severe challenge for the smooth implementation of the "The Belt and Road" strategy and a major hidden danger in the implementation and construction of the "The Belt and Road" strategy in the future.The country must formulate effective risk prevention and control plans from the strategic perspective.The studies of national risks have long been known in the academic circles.From the initial political risk researches of a country to the studies of comprehensive risks including politics,economics and finance,scholars have introduced national risks into the field of international trade research,breaking the traditional research pattern of international trade theory.The research of national risks provides new thinking and direction for the study of international trade.Considering that the scholars on national risk mainly focus on the two aspects of international credit and international investment,there is relatively little research on export trade.At the same time,the research mainly focuses on the level of risk,the study on risk difference between different countries is relatively small.Therefore,this paper builds indicators to measures the level of national risk,studies the impact of national risk levels on China’s export trade.And further uses the Euclidean distance formula to measure the risk differences between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",analyzing the differences.which is a beneficial supplement to the study of national risk and international trade relations,as well as also a useful discussion of national risk research.This paper combs the existing scholars’ research on national risk,and based on the theoretical analysis,dividing the national risk into two parts:political risk and economic-financial risk,and introduces it into the trade gravity model to expand the trade gravity model.Combining the availability of data with the representativeness of the sample,the panel data of the 48 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2016 were selected for empirical regression.Taking China’s export trade volume of the 48 countries along "The Belt and Road" as the dependent variable.Quantifying the national risk level of the sample countries,use it as the core independent variables.Taking the traditional GDP,population,and geographical distance as the control variables,the empirical regression will be carried out to test the impact of national risks and national risk differences on the trade of China’s exports along"The Belt and Road" countries.Under the theoretical analysis of the uncertainty of the national risk to the export trade,through empirical tests,it is found that the national risks of countries along "The Belt and Road" have significantly hindered China’s export trade.Combining theoretical analysis with empirical results,this paper proposes to formulate prevention and control measures of export risk from both the government and enterprises to ensure the smooth development of China’s export trade to countries along "The Belt and Road".更多还原