【作者】 徐国庆；

【导师】 王杰； 何青松；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是历史悠久的农业大国,也是农药生产和使用大国。有机合成农药是现代农药的主要组成部分,农药化工则是精细化工的一个重要分支。基于自身的特殊性,农药化工行业对生产过程的安全性要求更高。在农药化工R&D活动成果转化过程中,涉及到大量新工艺新设备尤其是危险化工工艺的应用,不确定性大为增加。相应地,对技术升级改造项目进行有效的风险管理已成为当前行业的紧迫任务。本文分别采用文献研究法、定性与定量结合法、层次分析法等方法,结合项目风险管理的理念和技术,对T公司毒死蜱原药一体化合成技改项目进行研究。首先,通过对国内外有关风险管理及研发项目风险管理的文献报道进行梳理分析,总结国内外的研究现状,选取合理的研究方法,制定研究的技术路线。其次,在对毒死蜱原药技改项目概况进行分析的基础上,主要根据文献资料和实践经验以及专家组智慧,使用分步走的组合方式对项目风险进行识别,采用归纳——评议方式确定了项目七种风险类型,再运用故障树分析法初步识别出55种风险因素,最后通过德尔菲法即专家调查法确认了由四大类35种风险因素构成的项目风险清单。再次,采用专家主观评分法,集中专家认识与经验对各风险因素发生的可能性及后果严重性进行估计。以风险识别和估计结果为基础构建评价指标体系,运用AHP法进行权重分析和层次总排序。计算项目风险因素综合评价值,对其进行综合评价排序、划分风险等级,判定技改项目整体风险水平为中等。研究发现,项目主要风险在于工艺可行性欠缺、设备可行性欠缺、工艺可靠性不够、设备可靠性不够、技改后原药质量不达标、技术体系配套性差、技术关键人才流失等方面。对这些高等级风险因素进行了详细分析,为风险应对提供基础。根据项目风险分析评价结果,结合T公司实际情况,有针对性地制定了技改项目风险管理方案。提出了实施T公司毒死蜱原药技改项目风险管理的原则以及风险管理的体系框架,进行风险应对策略选择并给出技改项目主要风险具体应对措施。建立了基于以人为本管理理念的“全员组网+集中决策”监控风险模式,制定了实施项目风险管理的保障措施,以便把项目风险管理落到实处,有效防范化解项目风险,促使毒死蜱原药技改项目顺利建成投产并稳定运行。本文的研究提出了运用组合方式识别项目风险的方法,以及基于以人为本管理理念的“全员组网+集中决策”监控风险模式,为农药行业中小企业进行相关技术改造项目的风险管理提供了一些尝试。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a huge agricultural country with very long history and is also one of the biggest in manufacture and use of pesticides.Organic synthetic pesticide is the major member of modern pesticide family,while the pesticide chemical industry is an important branch of the industry of fine chemicals.Because of its own specificity and particularity,the pesticide manufacture industry requires higher production process safety when compared with other industries.Given the fact that in the pesticide chemical industry the R&D achievement transformation involves a great deal of creative and innovative processes and novel equipments,especially dangerous chemical process might be used,the uncertainty would be greatly increased.Accordingly,effective risk management has become an urgent task for the projects of technical innovation and upgrading.In this thesis,literature survey,qualitative and quantitative combination as well as analytic hierarchy process were employed to study a technical innovation project for chlorpyrifos production in company T,combining with the conceptual theory and technology of project risk management.On the basis of comprehensive literature reviewing the risk management of R&D projects and other related projects around the world and summarizing the state of the art,the reasonable research strategy and the research roadmap were firstly determined.Secondly,the risk factors of the project were identified by use of the step-wise combination methodology in combination of the actual situation and basic facts of the chlorpyrifos TC project in company T,the practical experience from literature document and engineering practice as well as the expertise.Seven kinds of risks were figured out according to the induction and review formula.A total of 55 risk factors were preliminarily recognized by the fault tree analysis.And finally a risk factor list was defined based on Delphi Method(also known as expert investigation method),which was composed of four categories of risk factors,totally 35 kinds of risk.Thirdly,by use of subjective scoring of experts,focused on the cognize and expertise of the experts,the probability of the risk happening and the consequence severity were assessed.On this basis,an assessment indictor system was built up.The weight analysis was done and the hierarchy was sorted according to AHP method.The comprehensive evaluation index of the project risk factors was calculated,the comprehensive assessment and the level of risk were ranked.It turns out that the risk level of the project was medium.It was found that the major risks depended on the feasibility in the technical process and the equipments,the reliability in production process and the equipments,the quality of product after technical innovation,the systematicness of the process technique,the qualification of the operation workers,etc.All these detailed analyses lay the foundation for risk response.According to the results of risk evaluation and actual practices of company T,the risk management program for the technical innovation project was laid out.The principle and the system framework of project risk management was presented,and the measurement in response to the risk of chlorpyrifos TC project in company T was proposed based on the choice of risk response strategy.The people oriented supervision mode of risk,all member participation network + collective decision was founded.The safeguard measure to enact the project risk management was formulated so as to effectively control the project risks and smoothly complete the technical innovation project and ensure the steady running of the plant.This thesis proposed a novel method for project risk identification by employing combinative approach,and a person oriented risk monitoring and supervision mode—all member participation and collective decision,which provides some attempts for the risk management of the related technical innovation projects in the small and medium enterprises.更多还原