【作者】 张勇；

【导师】 唐国磊；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 全球化贸易的飞速发展带动了交通运输业的繁荣,日渐增加的海运集装箱周转量,港口之间的竞争加剧对集装箱码头的服务水平提出了更高的要求。泊位-岸桥分配计划作为码头前沿作业的重要一环,极大地影响着码头整体运营效率。而在制定该计划时,船舶到港时间的不确定性对计划的实施有着重要的影响,处理不当会造成码头资源的浪费。近些年来,已经有不少学者对船舶到港时间的规律进行分析,使用不同的研究方法预测船舶到港延迟数据,其中采用人工智能算法得到的船舶到港时间预测区间,对港区整体船舶到港情况的预测有较好的效果,可为港方管理人员制定生产作业计划提供参考。因此,利用该数据制定合理有效的泊位-岸桥分配计划,对提高港口运营效率,保证港口竞争力具有重要的实际意义。为此,本文在总结近些年国内外学者在不确定条件下的泊位-岸桥分配的研究基础上,分析船舶到港时间预测区间的数值特点以及不确定性构成,制定泊位-岸桥分配计划。该计划分为两部分,第一部分为基础调度计划,根据每艘船舶到港时间预测区间设置缓冲时间,以船舶离港延迟时间最小与缓冲时间最大为优化目标,构建泊位-岸桥分配鲁棒优化模型;第二部分为反应调度策略,以右移策略为调度原则对船舶实际到港情况进行反应。最后选取船舶实际靠泊时间总偏离值作为解的鲁棒性指标,船舶离港总延迟时间作为质量鲁棒性指标,衡量模型的鲁棒优化效果。最后,为验证本文提出的鲁棒优化模型对船舶到港时间预测区间的适用性和对泊位-岸桥分配的优化效果,本文通过实例分析将本文提出的模型与现有的两种鲁棒优化模型进行对比。运行多组实验后,本文提出的模型在单日和连续七日泊位-岸桥分配中解的鲁棒性与质量鲁棒性均表现较优。可以得出,同直接使用船期表提供的船舶预到港时间的泊位-岸桥分配鲁棒优化方案相比,本文提出的模型考虑了船舶提前到港的情况,较大幅度地减少船舶靠泊时间偏离计划引起的效益损失。通过设置缓冲时间的方式可以有效地处理船舶到港时间预测区间带来的不确定性,降低船舶离港延迟时间,为智慧港口建设的数据处理提供了新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of global trade has driven the prosperity of the transportation industry.The intensified competition between ports have put forward higher requirements for the service level of container terminals.Berth allocation and quay crane assignment plan,as an important part operation,greatly affects the overall ports’ operation efficiency.The uncertainty of the ship arrival time has an important impact on formulation of the plan Improper handling will result in waste of terminal resources.In recent years,many scholars have analyzed the law of ship arrival time and predicted ships arriving data.Among them,the predicted time intervals of ship arrivals by artificial intelligence algorithm has a good effect on the prediction of the overall arrival of ships in the port area.It can provide reference for the port operations plans for port management.Thus,using this data to develop a reasonable and effective berth allocation and quay crane assignment plan has important practical significance for improving port operation efficiency and ensuring port competitiveness.Therefore,this paper summarizes the numerical characteristics of the predicted time intervals of ship arrivals based on the research of berth allocation and quay crane assignment under the uncertain conditions in recent years.In order to develop a robust optimization schedule of berth allocation and quay crane assignment,this paper divides this schedule into two parts.The first part is the baseline schedule,it’s based on the robust optimization model which is constructed with the optimization goal of minimizing the total delay time of the ship’s departure and the maximum buffer time.The second part is the reaction schedule which is based on the right shifting strategy to respond to the actual arrival of the ship.The total deviation value of the ship’s actual berthing time is selected as the solution robustness.The total departure delay time of the ship is used as the quality robustness.Both of them are to measure the robust optimization effect of the model.Finally,in order to verify the optimization effect on the berth allocation and quay crane assignment,this paper compares with the existing two robust optimization models through case analysis.After running multiple sets of experiments,the proposed model has better results in the berth-quay crane allocation process under single day schedule and seven consecutive day schedule.Compared with robust optimization scheme provided by the ship’s pre-arrival time,the model proposed in this paper takes into account the situation of the ship arriving in advance,and greatly reduces the ship berthing time deviation plan.By setting the buffer time,the uncertainty caused by the predicted time intervals of ship arrivals can be effectively processed,and the delay time of ship departure time can be effectively reduced,which provides a new idea for data processing in the construction of smart ports.更多还原