【作者】 于颖；

【导师】 沈新美；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,社会上存在着一种比较客观存在的经济现象——区域经济差异过大。在一定的经济差异下,资源可以得到合理配置、产业的空间转移也可以被推动;但是,中国各地区的经济差异比较明显,这在一定程度上阻碍了各地区经济发展的协调,最终甚至危及社会稳定。改革开放至今,我国的经济处于迅猛发展的时期,然而由于各地区经济发展的快慢不同产生了一系列的问题,这些问题引起了众多学者的广泛关注。一些学者正在慢慢开始研究不同尺度的区域差异。目前已有的研究中,在选择区域指标时,绝大部分学者仅仅使用该区域人均GDP指标来衡量各地区经济的不同,因此,在分析不同地区的区域经济差异时,利用该综合指数进行研究仍存在一些不足之处;在方法上,大多数的学者经常采用传统方法来体现区域经济差异水平。本文将空间面板数据模型应用到山东省区域经济领域。为了更全面的体现山东省各市的区域经济发展水平,对山东省各市的经济水平采用多指标综合分析方法,选取了11个与山东省经济水平有关的经济指标,并且本文采取主成分分析方法来体现山东省各市的经济发展的综合水平。本文对比了不同空间面板数据模型例如SAR、SEM、SDM、SAR模型,并选择出适合山东省17个市影响区域经济发展因素的空间面板数据模型——空间面板Durbin模型,通过模型得到的结论可以找出影响山东省经济发展的制约因素和促进因素,希望为山东省经济发展提供有效建议。为了避免只考虑人均GDP来描述各市经济发展水平所造成的不准确性,本文首先从多个变量的角度来研究经济发展水平,即综合分析方法来表现山东省不同城市的经济发展综合水平;其次,在第四章通过对山东省各市的经济水平进行全局以及局部空间自相关分析,表明山东省区域经济发展空间相关性的存在;最后对不同空间面板数据模型进行检验,选择合适的空间杜宾面板模型,找出影响区域经济发展的各个因素之间的相互关系以及是否对邻近地区造成了影响,最后提供一些建议,希望实现山东省区域经济的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional economic differences are a social and economic objective phenomenon.Moderate differences are conducive to promoting the rational allocation of resources and the spatial transfer of industries.However,excessive differences hinder regional economic development and endanger social stability.Since the reform and opening up,the economy is in rapid development.The phenomenon of regional economic differences has become increasingly obvious.A series of problems caused by regional economic differences have directly or indirectly aroused widespread concern in China.Many scholars have studied regional differences from national,provincial,and county scales.About the selection of indicators,most researchers only use GDP index to reflect regional economic differences.The research on regional economic differences at different spatial scales has some shortcomings.Most of the research methods use traditional coefficient to reveal the regional economic differences.The spatial panel data model is applied to the regional economic field of Shandong Province.In order to reflect the regional economic development of cities in Shandong Province,this paper adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive analysis method called principal component analysis for the economic level of each city by selecting 11 economic indicators related to the economic level of Shandong Province.This paper comprehensively tests different spatial panel data models such as SAR,SEM,SDM and SAR models.It selects a suitable spatial panel data model for the regional economic development of 17 cities in Shandong Province.The model finds out the positive and negative factors to the economy.This paper firstly adopts multi-indicator comprehensive analysis method to obtain the overall level of economic development in different cities in Shandong Province.Secondly,it investigates the spatial correlation of regional economic development in Shandong Province through global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Finally,by testing the different spatial panel model,it shows that the appropriate spatial Durbin panel model is the most suitable one.By analyzing Durbin panel model,the paper finds out the interrelationship between various factors affecting regional economic development.更多还原