【作者】 刘英；

【导师】 高杰；

【作者基本信息】 中南财经政法大学 ， 西方经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国一直保持高速发展,经济总量赶超日本处于世界第二水平,国际地位逐步提升,众多经济指标位居世界前列,但高增长背后隐藏着下述问题:一是我国经济从总体数量上看具备优势,但人均水平依然偏低;二是经济增长速度较快,但增长质量有待优化。在当前经济新常态下,中国经济面临结构优化和转型升级的契机,因此建设创新型国家战略被放在了国家发展的核心位置上。目前我国整体研发与创新投入正在进入高速增长期,自主创新和技术进步已成为越来越多企业谋求发展的内在驱动力。但企业在考虑创新决策时,往往面临多方面的不确定性因素,其中包括经济政策不确定性。经济政策的波动会改变企业所处的经济环境,导致企业无法预测投资未来能否带来收益以及收益大小,进而影响企业创新投资决策。如今我国正处于经济转轨时期,频繁的经济政策出台进一步将企业创新面临的不确定推到更高层次,所以分析经济政策不确定性的可能传导路径,探讨其对企业创新行为的影响,对于宏观经济和微观企业都至关重要。关于经济政策不确定性对企业创新投入的影响,本文主要从理论分析和实证分析两个方面展开。理论上,从技术创新理论、融资约束理论、投资期权理论,详细解释了企业创新的原因,不确定性下企业创新会面临哪方面的约束,以及企业在不确定性下如何进行创新投资决策。从实证角度,本文利用中介效应分析方法,分别探讨了经济政策不确定性对创新投入、固定资产投资的直接影响,并构建三者的中介效应模型,分析经济政策不确定性是否可以通过固定资产投资这一路径影响企业创新投入,以及如何影响。同时在当期研究基础上,对模型进行滞后处理,进一步解释长期经济政策不确定性与R&D投资的关系。本文基于Baker等学者2016年构建经济政策不确定性指数,利用A股上市企业2010年—2016年数据进行回归分析,实证结果显示:第一,经济政策不确定性提高会使企业增加R&D投资,以期获得未来的增长期权;第二,经济政策不确定性的提高会抑制企业进行固定资产投资;第三,R&D投资与固定资产投资之间存在替代效应;第四,通过中介效应分析可知,经济政策不确定性不仅能直接影响研发投入,而且还会通过固定资产投资间接影响R&D投资,但以直接效应为主。第五,模型滞后结果显示,从长期看持续的经济政策不确定性上升会导致R&D投资减少,降低固定资产投资以增加R&D投入的这种促进作用会逐渐减弱。研究结论对于政府政策出台、企业创新决策等方面具有一定借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China has maintained rapid development.The economic aggregate has surpassed Japan to be the second in the world,and its international status has gradually improved,and many economic indicators are among the highest in the world,but these high growth also hide huge problems.At present,Chinese economy has advantages in terms of overall quantity,but the per capita level is still low;the economic growth rate is relatively fast,but most of them are low-quality growth,which is made up of resources and elements.Under the current new economic normal,the Chinese economy is faced with opportunities for structural optimization and transformation.Therefore,the construction of an innovative national strategy has been placed at the core of national development.At present,Chinese overall R&D and innovation investment is entering a period of rapid growth,independent innovation and technological advancement have become the internal driving force for more and more enterprises to seek development.However,when companies consider innovative decisions,they often face multiple uncertainties,including economic policy uncertainty.The volatility of economic policies will change the economic environment in which enterprises are located,which will make it impossible for enterprises to predict whether the future investment will bring in gains or benefits,and thus affect the innovation investment decisions of enterprises.Nowadays,China is in the period of economic transition.The launch of frequent economic policies further pushes the uncertainty of enterprise innovation to a higher level.Therefore,it is crucial to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation behavior and possible transmission path for both the economic and micro companies.With regard to the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation investment,this paper mainly focuses on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In the theoretical research,from the theory of technological innovation,financing constraints,and investment options,they explains in detail why companies should innovate,what aspects of corporate innovation will be faced,and how uncertainty affects corporate innovation investment decisions.In the empirical research,this paper uses the mediation effect analysis method to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation investment,fixed asset investment,and the intermediary effect of fixed asset investment between economic policy uncertaintyand R&D investment.At the same time,based on the current research,the paper lags the model to further explain the relationship between long-term economic policy uncertainty and R&D investment.This paper is based on Economic Policy Uncertaintu Index,which constructed by Baker and other scholars in 2016,and uses A-share listed companies’ 2010-2016 data for regression analysis.The results show that:First,the growth of economic policy uncertainty will promote enterprises to increase R&D investment.Second,the increase in economic policy uncertainty will inhibit enterprises from investing in fixed assets.Third,there is a substitution effect between R&D investment and fixed asset investment;Fourth,through the analysis of mediation effects,economic policy uncertainty can not only directly affect R&D investment,but also indirectly affect R&D investment through fixed asset investment,but mainly based on direct effects.Fifth,the model lag results show that,in the long run,economic policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on R&D investment,the reduction of fixed asset investment to R&D investment is only temporary,and the effect of this substitution will gradually weaken.The research conclusions have certain reference significance for the introduction of government policies and enterprise innovation decision-making.更多还原