【作者】 杨洋；

【导师】 常颖； 付书敏；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 会计硕士（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 目前我国正处于社会主义市场经济初级阶段,近年由于国内经济发展增速放缓,国际经济环境变化多端,导致企业经营面临着越来越多的不确定性,进而引起财务风险日益加大,给企业持续稳定经营带来很大威胁,而在企业生命周期的任何阶段都无法彻底消除财务风险,因此企业日益重视对财务风险的有效控制,而控制财务风险最有效的方法就是对其进行事前的监管与及时处理,但是我国尚处于市场经济初级阶段,理论界对财务风险的研究尚不完善,企业也没有足够的意识与能力去建立相对完善的财务风险评价体系,多数企业的风险评价体系过于理论化,没有充分结合企业实际情况与所处行业特征,并且风险评价过程过度依赖某些重要的财务指标,而忽视其他财务数据与非财务信息,损失大量重要信息,造成评价结果过于片面,不够准确。因此,企业需要结合自身实际情况,建立一套行之有效的财务风评体系。本文选取特种纸领域的领导企业冠豪高新作为研究对象,首先研究冠豪高新财务风险评价现状,并运用现有的风险评价方法评价公司的财务风险状况,经分析发现现行的风险评价工作存在很大缺陷,无法对公司面临的财务风险作出准确的评估预测,因此有必要设计一套科学有效的财务风险评价体系。接下来在构建财务风险评价体系时,要对传统的功效系数法从两方面进行修正完善,然后要选取评价指标并采用层次分析法为其赋权,其中财务指标的选取过程中,依据财务风险评价相关理论,结合冠豪高新所在行业特征及经营现状,从偿债、盈利、营运、发展及获现等五方面能力共选取19项指标,利用层次分析法计算确定不同财务指标的相对权重时,根据层次分析法的工作原理,将评价指标体系划分为准则层与指标层,并采用专家打分法判断同一层级两两指标间的相对重要程度,从而构建各层次的判断矩阵,对每一判断矩阵进行数据处理后便能得出每一指标的权重,为确保结果有效,要对每一矩阵依次进行一致性检验。最后是财务风险评价体系试运行,搜集整理2014-2018年财报数据,得出公司财务指标实际值,结合财务风险评价指标标准值,运用修正完善的功效系数法处理财务数据,得出财务风险等级,并对评价结果进行分析,然后将新设计的财务风险评价体系与现行财务风险评价方法对比分析,明确其优势,最后提出新评价体系有效运行的保障措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,China is in the primary stage of the socialist market economy.In recent years,due to the slowdown in the growth of domestic economic development and the changing international economic environment,enterprises are facing more and more uncertainties,which in turn leads to increasing financial risks.The continuous and stable operation of enterprises poses a great threat,and financial risks cannot be completely eliminated at any stage of the enterprise life cycle.Therefore,enterprises pay more and more attention to the effective control of financial risks,and the most effective way to control financial risks is to conduct them beforehand.Supervision and timely processing,but China is still in the initial stage of market economy.The theoretical research on financial risk is still not perfect.Enterprises do not have enough awareness and ability to establish a relatively complete financial risk evaluation system.Most enterprises have too much risk evaluation system.Theorization does not fully combine the actual situation of the enterprise with the characteristics of the industry,and the risk assessment process relies too much on some important financial indicators,while ignoring other financial data and non-financial information,and losing a lot of important information,resulting in a one-sided evaluation result.Comprehensive.Therefore,enterprises need to establish an effective financial assessment system based on their actual situation.This paper selects Guanhao High-tech,a leading enterprise in the field of specialty papers,as the research object.Firstly,it studies the current status of Guanhao high-tech financial risk assessment,and uses the existing risk assessment methods to evaluate the company’s financial risk.After analysis,it is found that the current risk assessment work is very Large defects,unable to make accurate assessments of the financial risks faced by the company,it is necessary to design a scientific and effective financial risk assessment system.Next,when constructing the financial risk assessment system,the traditional efficiency coefficient method should be revised and improved from two aspects.Then,the evaluation index should be selected and the AHP should be used to empower it.In the process of selecting financial indicators,based on financial risks Evaluate relevant theories,combine the characteristics of the industry and the current management status of Guanhao High-tech,and select 19 indicators from the five aspects of debt repayment,profit,operation,development and cashing,and use AHP to calculate the relative weight of different financial indicators.According to the working principle of the analytic hierarchy process,the evaluation index system is divided into the criterion layer and the indicator layer,and the expert scoring method is used to judge the relative importance degree between the two levels of the same level,so as to construct the judgment matrix of each level,for each judgment.After the matrix is processed,the weight of each indicator can be obtained.To ensure the validity of the results,the consistency check is performed for each matrix.Finally,the financial risk assessment system is put into trial operation,collecting and compiling the financial data of 2014-2018,and obtaining the actual value of the company’s financial indicators.Combined with the standard value of the financial risk assessment index,the financial data is processed by the revised and improved efficiency coefficient method to obtain the financial risk level.And analyze the evaluation results,then compare and analyze the newly designed financial risk assessment system and the current financial risk assessment methods to clarify their advantages,and finally propose the safeguard measures for the effective operation of the new evaluation system.更多还原