中国家庭信任度和人力资本对风险金融资产配置的影响因素研究

【作者】 李琳；

【导师】 逯进；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 党的十九大报告中有三个重要论断与导向:第一,“我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾”。这是对我国宏观经济供求结构矛盾的深入研判。第二,“不断促进人的全面发展”。这表明不断增进人民福祉、坚持以人为中心的发展思想将持续成为我国有质量发展的核心要义。第三,“拓宽居民财产性收入渠道”。这对于保障和改善民生、持续扩大中等收入群体规模意义重大。综合考量上述三点,聚焦于我国社会经济发展“转方式、调结构”的持续推进,按照“顶层设计”的思路可形成如下发展逻辑:当前以人的全面发展为核心,需要切实稳定增加家庭的财富积累、特别是财产性收入,这正是解决当下“需要”和“发展”矛盾之间的重要举措。首先,文章基于CHIP数据对我国家庭信任度、人力资本和风险金融资产配置的基本情况进行了梳理,进而从三者之间的相关关系和家庭风险金融资产配置的影响因素进行了相关阐述,并通过耦合分析进行了简单的验证。其次,以家庭风险金融资产参与概率和参与度两方面作为家庭风险金融资产配置情况的代理变量,运用probit和tobit模型从城乡角度对家庭风险金融资产的配置情况进行分析。随后,将全国家庭根据东部、中部和西部进行划分,对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响因素分析进行稳健性检验和协调性分析。结果表明,首先,城镇家庭的风险金融资产参与概率和参与度均高于农村家庭;其次,信任度和人力资本对家庭风险金融资产配置具有正向促进作用,家庭成员的人力资本会促进信任度对家庭风险金融资产的参与概率和参与度的边际影响,且其信任度会促进人力资本对家庭风险资产配置的边际影响,故提高家庭的信任度和人力资本水平将会有效提高城乡家庭风险金融资产的配置能力;再次,相比于东部地区,家庭信任度水平的提高对中、西部地区家庭风险金融资产参与度的边际影响更小,而人力资本水平的提高对其边际影响更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are three important assertions and orientations in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: First,"the main contradiction in our society has been transformed into a contradiction between the people’s growing need for a better life and the development of an inadequate balance." This is an in-depth study of the contradiction between China’s macroeconomic supply and demand structure.Second,"continuously promote the all-round development of people." This shows that the continuous improvement of people’s well-being and adherence to the people-centered development thinking will continue to be the core of China’s quality development.Third,“expanding the channels for residents’ property income”.This is of great significance for safeguarding and improving people’s livelihood and continuously expanding the size of middle-income groups.Comprehensive consideration of the above three points,focusing on the continuous promotion of the "transformation and adjustment structure" of China’s social and economic development,according to the "top-level design" ideas can form the following development logic: the current comprehensive development of people as the core,the need to effectively increase the family The accumulation of wealth,especially property income,is an important measure to resolve the current "needs" and "development" contradictions.Firstly,based on CHIP data,this paper sorts out the basic situation of family trust,human capital and risk financial asset allocation in China,and then elaborates on the correlation between the three and the influencing factors of family risk financial asset allocation.Secondly,the family risk financial asset participation probability and participation degree are used as the proxy variables of family risk financial asset allocation.The probit and tobit models are used to analyze the allocation of family risk financial assets from the urban and rural perspective.Subsequently,the national households were divided according to the eastern,central and western regions,and the analysis of the influencing factors of family risk financial asset allocation was conducted for robustness test and coordination analysis.The results show that,first of all,the participation probability and participation of risk financial assets of urban households are higher than that of rural households;Secondly,trust and human capital have positive effects on family risk financial asset allocation.The human capital of family members will promote the marginal impact of trust on the participation probability and participation of family risk financial assets.And its trust will promote the marginal impact of human capital on the allocation of household risk assets,so improving the family’s trust and human capital level will effectively improve the allocation of urban and rural household risk financial assets;Thirdly,compared with the eastern region,the increase in the level of family trust has less marginal impact on the participation of family risk financial assets in the central and western regions,and the increase in human capital level has a greater impact on the margin.更多还原