中国省际全要素生产率的空间关联与影响因素研究

【作者】 陈煜；

【导师】 张继彤；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 区域经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 在调结构、稳增长的背景下,中国整体经济增长呈现出动力不足、增速放缓的趋势,但从区域角度而言,中国在推动区域一体化和市场化方面做出了诸多努力,地区之间发展的关联度不断提高,推进了区域协调发展的进程。因此,研究当前中国区域经济增长问题时,新形势下地区经济增长动力演变及增长过程中地区间的交互作用值得关注。此外,探讨推动(或阻碍)增长动力提升的因素,能够为促进区域经济增长寻找改进思路。全要素生产率作为衡量国家或地区经济增长质量和动力的重要指标,是在研究区域经济增长问题时用来反映地区增长能力的良好指标。本文运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和空间计量方法,以中国大陆31个省份1990～2016年的全要素生产率为研究对象,研究了其空间关联特征和影响因素。首先,采用Malmquist-DEA方法测算得到各省份的全要素生产率指数,作为后文实证分析的对象和核心变量,并分析了其时间演变。其次,运用ESDA方法分析了全要素生产率的直观分布、全局以及局部空间关联特点,重点探讨了空间关联程度和类型的时空演变。再次,运用动态空间自回归模型分析了初始发展条件、经济集聚水平、产业结构、基础设施、人力资本、创新能力、市场化程度、政府干预及对外开放度对全要素生产率的影响。最后是本文的研究结论和政策建议。研究得出,中国地区经济增长是一个相互关联的交互作用过程,一个地区的经济增长促进或制约着邻近地区的经济增长,并且空间关联程度进一步提高;经济增长动力出现了地区间正向交互作用减弱、动力不足的趋势;地区经济增长的空间模式趋向合理:中、西部同东部地区增长能力的差距在缩小,增长的正向交互作用地区逐渐向北部和西部地区转移,交互作用为负的省份数量明显减少;地区初始发展条件、人力资本、市场化程度、创新能力以及对外开放度有利于提升地区全要素生产率,地区经济集聚水平和政府干预程度阻碍了全要素生产率的提升,而产业结构和基础设施水平未能显著提升地区全要素生产率。因此,各级政府在制定区域经济发展政策时,要继续推进区域一体化进程,加强地区增长联系;提高经济集聚水平,充分发挥产业集聚带来的外部经济,推动产业结构优化升级;继续扩大人力资本投资,采取激励政策鼓励创新,提高地区创新能力和水平;提高民营经济在国民经济中的比重,进一步降低政府干预程度,充分发掘市场活力;合理规划地区基础设施建设,优化布局,推动基础设施同生产要素的高效整合;进一步提升经济开放水平,提高企业的技术水平和竞争能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of structural adjustment and growth stabilization,China is experiencing a decline of growth rate and insufficient growth momentum.But from a regional perspective,China has made many efforts in promoting regional integration and marketization over the years,the connection of interregional development is getting closer,and the process of regional coordinated development is promoting.Accordingly,when studying China’s current regional economy growth,the dynamic evolution of growth momentum of regional economy and interaction between different regions’ economic growth are worthy for attention.Meanwhile,discussing the factors of promoting economic growth momentum will help to seek ideas for the promotion of regional economic growth.As a key indicator to measure the quality and capacity of economic growth,total factor productivity(TFP)can well reflect the ability of economic growth when studying the issues of regional economic growth.With the methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)and Spatial Econometric,this paper takes the TFP of all the mainland provinces in China from 1990 to 2016 as research object,and discusses the spatial correlation characteristics and influence factors of them.Firstly,the TFP index of each province is calculated by using Malmquist-DEA method in this paper,and takes them as the objects and core variables of the empirical analysis,and then analyzes the evolution of them.Secondly,this paper analyzes the features of the space distribution,the spatial association of local and global areas.The temporal and spatial changes of the degree and type for the spatial correlation are discussed emphatically in this part.By using dynamic spatial autoregressive model,then this paper analyses the impacts of the initial condition of development,level of economic agglomeration,industrial structure,infrastructure level,human capital,innovation ability,degree of marketization,degree of government intervention and openness on TFP.The last part of this paper is the conclusions and suggestions.Conclusions below are draw from this paper:1.Regional economic growth in China is an interrelated and interactive process,which means economic growth in a region promotes or restricts its neighbors.And the degree of spatial association is rising.2.The spatial pattern of regional economy growth is getting reasonable,the gap of regional economic growth ability between eastern China and western and central China is narrowing,the areas with positive interaction effect are shifting to northern and western China,and the number of areas that with nagetive interaction effect is decreasing.3.The initial condition of development,human capital,degree of marketization,innovation ability and openness are helpful for the promotion of TFP,but the level of economic agglomeration and the degree of government intervention block it.Industrial structure and infrastructure level can not significantly improve TFP.Consequently,in making development policies of regional economy,governments at all levels should continue to promote the process of regional integration and strengthen the connection of regional growth.And they should improve the level of economic agglomeration and give full play to the external economy produced by industrial agglomeration.Meanwhile,they should expand the investment of the human capital,improve the ability and degree of regional innovation by adopting incentive policies to encourage innovation,reduce the degree of government intervention and stimulate the market dynamics by improving the proportion of private economy in national economy.In addition,they should promote the integration of infrastructure and production factors efficiently by planning regional infrastructure construction and layout reasonably,and they should improve the technological level and competitiveness of enterprises by increasing economic openness.更多还原