【作者】 张文文；

【导师】 张金良；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学(北京) ， 管理科学与工程， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年,全社会用电量不断攀升,对电网企业供电的安全性与可靠性提出了更高的要求,电力基础设施项目的建设投资力度逐年加大。输变电工程作为电力基础设施的核心部分,对电网企业供电质量和整个社会的经济发展都具有深远的影响。同时,输变电工程具有投资规模大、建设周期长、投资回收慢等特点,其投入运营后的经济效益好坏直接影响电网企业的经营效益,而且也会影响经济社会的发展速度。因此,对输变电工程项目进行经济效益评价是非常重要的。本文研究输变电工程项目的经济效益评价方法,以客观反映项目所带来的企业和社会经济效益。本文以输变电工程项目为研究对象,从企业财务角度和国民经济角度构建了指标体系和模型,对项目的经济效益进行了综合评价。文章首先梳理了国内外输变电工程经济评价的现状,在系统研究了相关理论和方法的基础上,根据输变电工程项目的特点和评价原则,论述了输变电工程经济效益评价的主要内容;然后,构建了包括财务评价和国民经济评价的经济评价指标体系,并提出了各指标相应的量化方法,在财务层面,考虑输变电工程项目改善所属电网的技术特性给企业带来的效益,将电网技术特性改善效益选定为指标,构建包含盈利能力、偿债能力、运营能力以及电网技术特性改善效益的二级指标,在国民经济层面,考虑输变电工程的社会基础设施性质,基于外部理论构建了网络性效益、需求方效益、社会效益和环境效益四个二级指标,在指标量化过程中主要采用增量效益识别法和有无对比法;再次,在分析BP神经网络模型和遗传算法各自特点的基础上,充分利用两种方法的优势,建立了遗传算法优化的BP神经网络组合模型,训练后拟合效果较好;最后,以某市新建66kV输变电工程项目为例,在调研收集资料的基础上对其财务指标和国民经济指标进行了量化分析,并运用构建的组合模型对其进行了综合经济评价,得出了评价结论。本文所构建的评价指标体系和评价模型能够为同类项目的经济效益评价提供了合理的评价方法,为后续项目的投资决策提供参考,同时也为其他领域项目经济效益评价提供了思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the electricity consumption of the whole society has been rising,which puts higher requirements on the safety and reliability of power supply for power grid enterprises.The investment in the construction of power infrastructure projects has increased year by year.As a core part of the power infrastructure,power transmission and transformation projects have far-reaching impact on the power quality of power grid enterprises and the economic development of the entire society.At the same time,the power transmission and transformation project has the characteristics of large investment scale,long construction period and slow investment recovery.The economic benefits after its operation directly affect the operating efficiency of the power grid enterprises,and will also affect the economic and social development speed.Therefore,it is very important to evaluate the economic benefits of power transmission and transformation projects.This paper studies the economic benefit evaluation method of power transmission and transformation project to objectively reflect the economic benefits brought by the project to enterprises and society.This paper takes the power transmission and transformation project as the research object,constructes the index system and model from the perspective of corporate finance and national economy,and evaluates the comprehensive economic benefits.The article firstly combs the current situation of economic evaluation of power transmission and transformation engineering Domestic and foreign.Based on the systematic research of relevant theories and methods,according to the characteristics and evaluation principles of power transmission and transformation projects,the main points of economic benefit evaluation are discussed.Next,the economic evaluation index system including financial evaluation and national economic evaluation is constructed,and the quantitative methods of each index are proposed.At the financial level,considering the technical characteristics of the power transmission and transformation project to improve the grid,the benefits is included in the indicator system,and build four secondary indicators of profitability,solvency,operational capability and grid technology characteristics to improve benefits.At the national economic level,consider the nature of the social infrastructure of power transmission and transformation projects,based on the external theory,four secondary indicators of network benefit,demand side benefit,social benefit and environmental benefit are constructed.In the process of index quantification,the incremental benefit identification method and the comparison method are used.Then,the model of BP neural network and genetic algorithm are analyzed.And make full use of the two methods’advantages,GA-BP neural network model is established,and the fitting effect is better after training.Finally,taking a new 66kV power transmission and transformation project as an example,based on the research and collection of data,its financial and national economy indicators were calculated and analyzed,and the combined model was used to carry out comprehensive economic evaluation.The evaluation index system and evaluation model constructed in this paper can provide a reasonable evaluation method for the economic benefit evaluation of similar projects,provide reference for the investment decision of subsequent projects,and provide ideas and methods for economic benefit evaluation of other projects.更多还原