【作者】 张琦；

【导师】 李文兴；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着广大民众对出行体验、出行安全要求的提升,高铁与民航成为了多数民众出行的首要选择,高铁与民航在争夺客流方面的竞争也日益激烈。不可否认,在旅客选择乘坐何种交通运输方式时,票价是他们重要考虑的因素。合理的票价既能保证充分的客流量,又能使运营公司获取最大收益。因此,对高铁票价制定问题的研究,具有重要意义。本文研究高铁与民航的客流竞争行为,旨在通过模型的构建,确定在与民航竞争下高铁的坐席别定价方法。首先,文章对旅客出行选择行为进行分析,确定旅客出行可观测费用函数,构建客流分担率模型。其次,文章构建高铁票价的双层规划模型,分析高铁公司收益最大化下的最优票价。本文最后通过对北京至武汉客运段实例的分析,验证了构建模型的合理性。本文的具体工作如下:1、从高铁客票定价理论与定价方法入手,在对运输价格的定义、我国高铁定价原则进行简单介绍的基础上,分别阐述了马克思劳动价值论、供需均衡定价理论;其次介绍了最为常用的客票定价方法;最后对我国高铁客票定价的现状以及与民航的竞争性问题进行了简要分析。2、研究旅客出行选择行为问题:主要包括对消费者行为理论的简要介绍、对旅客出行过程的分析、对影响旅客出行选择因素的分析。通过量化并建立旅客出行可观测费用函数、建立客流分担率模型,确立了基于坐席别的客流分担率估算方法。客流分担率模型的构建,既能够研究高铁与民航在确定客运段下的坐席别客流竞争力,也为构建高铁最优票价模型做好了准备。3、以细分高铁与民航的不同坐席为前提,构建基于旅客出行费用的客流分担率模型,并在此基础上建立高铁客票定价的双层规划模型。双层规划模型能够求得满足最大化高铁收益、最小化旅客出行费用下的最优票价。4、实例分析北京至武汉客运段内高铁与民航的竞争行为。在问卷调查、数据统计分析的基础上,通过使用MATLAB软件,运用构建的客流分担率模型与客票定价的双层规划模型,计算高铁与民航在不同坐席下的市场分担率及高铁最优票价。计算结果说明在与民航的竞争中,高铁占有一定优势;高铁二等座占据超过30%的市场份额;北京至武汉段高铁最优票价为二等座515.8542元、一等座808.3151元、商务座1570.3522元。实例结果证明双层规划模型在制定高铁票价中具有一定合理性。图9幅,表24个,参考文献145篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many people have higher requirements on travel experience and travel safety in recent years,thus high-speed rail and civil aviation have gradually become the first choice and the competition between two means of transportation has become increasingly fierce.As for passengers,ticket price is an important influence factor when they determine which kind of transportation they will take.As for transportation companies,reasonable ticket price is also an essential thing since it can not only ensure large-scale market,but it can also make companies maximize their profits.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the issue of making efficient high-speed rail ticket price.The aim of this paper was to determine reasonable ticket price of high-speed rail under the competition with civil aviation by constructing bi-level programming model.Firstly,in order to study competitive behavior,the author analyzed passengers’ travel choice and constructed the passengers5 travel utility function to calculate passengers’ flow sharing rate.Secondly,the author analyzed the reasonable ticket price of high-speed rail by constructing bi-level programming model,which could maximize both high-speed rail company’s revenue and passengers’ profits.Finally,the author used an example to verify the rationality of bi-level programming model.By analyzing the real example,the author held the view that bi-level programming was a useful method and it provided a reasonable way for determining the ticket price of high-speed rail.The specific work of this paper is as follows:An introduction of major pricing theories and pricing methods.There was a brief introduction of transportation price and pricing principles of Chinese high-speed rail.The author respectively expounded Marx’s labor theory of value,supply-demand equilibrium pricing theory,and the most commonly used pricing methods.In addition,the status quo of China’s high-speed rail passengers’ ticket price and its competitiveness with civil aviation were briefly analyzed.Research on passengers’ travel choice.Based on consumer behavior theory,the author analyzed passengers5 travel process and the factors which could affect passengers’travel choice.By quantifying passengers’ travel utility function,the paper established passengers’ flow sharing rate estimation method,which could distinguish different sharing rates based on different seats.The method could not only study high-speed rail and civil aviation’s competitiveness but could also be useful for constructing bi-level programming model of high-speed rail.Constructing bi-level programming model.On the premise of subdividing the different seats of high-speed rail and civil aviation,taking into account the influencing factors of passengers’ travel choice,and constructing the passengers’ flow sharing rate model,the author used a bi-level programming model to analyze high-speed rail pricing method.In theory,the ticket price determined by this model could maximize the revenue of high-speed rail company and minimize the travel cost of passengers at the same time.Case study on high-speed rail pricing method.The author analyzed the competition between the high-speed rail and the civil aviation in the Beijing-Wuhan section at the end of this thesis.On the basis of questionnaire and data statistics,reasonable ticket prices of different seats were calculated by using the model constructed in this thesis.The calculation results in MATLAB showed that high-speed rail had an advantage in the competition with civil aviation and the second-class seats of high-speed rail occupied more than 30%of the market share.The results also showed that the best ticket price of high-speed rail from Beijing to Wuhan were 515.8542 CNY for second-class seats,808.3151 CNY for first-class seats and 1570.3522 CNY for business seats.The results of the example proved that the bi-level programming model was reasonable in the formulation of high-speed rail ticket price.With 9 Figures,24 Tables and 145 Reference Literatures.更多还原