【作者】 孙妍；

【导师】 王秀茹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 “引黄入冀补淀工程”对沿途省市和终点白洋淀起到引水、灌溉等调控效益的同时,也会对该工程引黄口的水沙情势和水沙丰枯遭遇概率等产生影响,针对该工程起点渠村引黄口进行相关研究,在研究收集、整理、分析该工程实施前后59年的径流和含沙量日数据的基础上,从水沙情势变化、径流变化归因分析、水沙边际函数和联合分布函数构建、丰枯遭遇分析等方面进行水沙综合分析,主要结论下:(1)“引黄入冀补淀工程”建设后,考虑赋值的变化范围法(RVA法)依据生态权重优化了综合指标水沙改变度的评价结果,渠村引黄口径流量和含沙量分别达到55.60%和62.64%的中度改变状态,该研究区天然水沙过程产生的变化和水沙的频繁波动,导致天然水沙过程发生了改变,影响了区域河流生态系统的稳定性。(2)基于离差平方和最小准则(RMSE)与AIC准则检验结果,研究区域TA阶段(1958～2005年,工程影响前阶段)年径流量和年含沙量分别选用Gen.Extreme Value和Log-Pearson3的边际分布函数;TB阶段(2006～2016年,受到工程建设影响阶段)则分别选用Log-Gamma和Log-Pearson3的边际分布函数拟合效果最佳;并选取不同参数的Clayton Copula作为水沙TA和TB阶段的联合分布函数效果最佳,可根据两阶段水沙联合分布图和等值线图,为研究区域的水沙调控提供技术支撑。(3)研究区域水沙同丰性频率降低,“水丰”频率组合的概率均降低,同时水沙同枯性频率增加44.47%;该工程建设增强了“水枯”情况的稳定性,使丰枯遭遇组合的变异系数降低18.52%,使不同丰枯遭遇组合频率分布更为均匀。(4)基于累积量斜率变化方法(SCRCQ)和6种基于Budyko假设的公式的弹性系数法,定量综合分析后认为气候变化和人类活动对“引黄入冀补淀工程”渠村引黄口处径流量减小的贡献率分别达到38.58%～46.74%和53.26%～61.42%;人类活动是影响该工程引黄口区域径流情势产生改变的主要影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The project of the Yellow River Diversion Project starts from the PuYang City in Henan Province,passes through the Handan City,Xingtai City,Hengshui City,Cangzhou City,Baoding City in HeBei Province,and finally arrives at the Baiyangdian Lake.It will not only control the water diversion and benefit to the irrigation,but also will have an impact on the hydrological and sediment situation andhave influences on the probability of runoff and sediment encounter to the Starting Point of the Yellow River Diversion Project Based on the study of the daily data of runoff and sediment concentration of 59 years(before and after the implementation of the project),the comprehensive analysis of water and sediment in the river basin is carried out from the aspects of water and sediment regime change,this study mainly analyzes the change of water and sediment regime,the attribution analysis of runoff change,the construction of water and sediment marginal function and joint distribution function,and the analysis of rich and dry encounters.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)After the construction of the "Yellow River Diversion Project",the evaluation results of the water and sediment change degree of the comprehensive index are optimized based on the ecological weight by using the RVA method.The runoff and sediment content of the Qucun Yellow River Diversion Estuary reaches to 55.60%and 62.64%respectively.(2)Based on the test results of RMSE and AIC criteria,the marginal distribution functions of the Gen.Extreme Value and the Log-Pearson 3 are selected for the annual runoff and sediment concentration in the TA stage(1958～2005);the Log-Gamma and the Log-Pearson 3 are selected for the best fitting effect in the TB stage(2006～2016);Clayton Copula with different parameters are selected as the water and sediment in the TA and TB stage.The joint distribution function has the best effect.It can refer to the two-stage joint distribution map of water and sediment and isoline map to provide reference for the study of regional water and sediment regulation.(3)After the construction of the of the "Yellow River Diversion Project ",the probability of the frequency combintion of water and sediment with abundance decreases,and the frequency combination of water and sediment with drought increases by 44.47%.The construction of the project enhances the stability of the situation of water and sediment with drought,reduces the coefficient of variation of the combination of water and sediment with drought by 18.52%,and makes the frequency distribution of different combination of water and sediment with drought more uniform.(4)Based on the cumulant slope change method(SCRCQ)and the six elasticity coefficient methods which are based on the Budyko hypothesis,the quantitative comprehensive analysis shows that the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the decrease of the runoff at the Canal Village of the Yellow River Diversion Project to Jibudian are 38.58%-46.74%and 53.26%-61.42%respectively,and that human activities influence the change of the runoff at the Canal Village of the Yellow River Diversion Project through the Mainly way.更多还原