【作者】 王秀丽；

【导师】 王士海；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 农业劳动力老龄化已然成为一个全球性趋势。它对一国农业竞争力、食物及其他农产品供给和农村社会经济发展产生十分显著的负面影响。美国、日本等面临老龄化挑战的国家早已认识到农业人口老龄化带来的严重后果,为了保障本国农业的可持续发展,都在探索可行的应对措施。对中国这样的人口大国而言,务农人口老龄化带来的后果更为严重,应当予以重视。针对中国农业人口老龄化及与其相关的农业竞争力降低等风险,国内学者的解决措施主要聚焦于土地流转、培育新型经营主体等方面。北美、东亚和欧洲发达经济体的应用实践表明,解决农户人口老龄化的主选方案是农业经营家庭内部代际传承。已有研究发现,中国农业经营家庭内部代际传承面临困难。中国农业经营家庭内部代际传承是否真的面临困难,主要受哪些因素的影响是亟待解决的问题。基于以上研究背景,本调查组对山东省中老年农户农业经营情况展开调查,意在了解目前农业经营家庭内部代际传承情况,找出代际传承过程中存在的问题和原因,提出对策建议,为理性认识当代农业经营发展过程中出现的经济现象和突出问题提供理论经验。中国农业经营家庭内部代际有序传承与父代农户的传递意愿和农户子代的继承意愿息息相关。论文首先对父代农户的代际传递意愿进行分析,并建立二元离散选择模型、Tobit模型和门槛回归模型分析影响父代农户农业经营代际传递意愿的决定因素;然后对农户子代的代际继承意愿进行分析,并引入二元离散选择模型探讨农户子代农业经营代际继承的影响因素;在此基础上,为进一步研究农户子代对农业经营的继承,论文最后对农户子代的继承时段进行实证分析。研究结果表明:目前农户农业经营代际传承存在困境,传承意愿整体较弱。样本中有三分之一的老龄农户有离农倾向,四分之一的农户子代愿意继承父代农户的农业资源。家庭男性劳动力人数对父代农户代际传递意愿有显著的正向影响,家庭全年外出务工或经商人数对父代农户代际传递意愿有显著的负向影响。平原地区的老龄农户具有较强离农倾向。此外,从总体上看年龄与父代农户代际传递存在同向正相关关系,但不同年龄段的父代农户代际传递意愿存在显著差异。69岁以下父代农户的年龄差异不会显著影响他们的代际传递意愿。69岁及以上的父代农户具有较强的离农倾向。农户子代最近两年农忙是否回家、子代认为父母农地经营传递意愿、父代传递意愿强烈程度和父代家庭总人数等变量显著正向影响农户子代的农业经营继承意愿。其中,农户子代最近两年农忙是否回家、父代传递意愿强烈程度负向影响他们的继承时段。农民合作社显著缩短了农户子代继承时段,而家庭农场则显著延长了农户子代继承时段。此外,年龄与农户子代农业经营代际继承时段显著负相关。小于38岁的农户子代的年龄变化对继承时段的影响强度显著高于38岁以上的农户子代。为保证中国农业家庭经营代际传承的可持续性,论文提出以下对策建议:农业特别是桑麻茶、蔬菜和水果等经济作物的种植仍然是丘陵山区的主要收入来源。改善丘陵山区的农业基础生产条件作为提高农民务农认可度的措施之一,其重要性不容忽视。为进一步提高农户务农收入,促使农业健康发展,政府要继续坚持和完善新型农业经营主体制度。此外,政府也要进一步完善青壮年农户返乡务农优惠政策。这一措施不仅能缓解农村劳动力老龄化程度,解决老龄农户养老问题,还能推动现代农业高效优质发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The aging of the agricultural labor force has become a global trend.It has a very significant negative impact on a country’s agricultural competitiveness,food and other agricultural products supplies and rural socio-economic development.Countries such as the United States and Japan facing the challenge of aging have long recognized the serious consequences of the aging of the agricultural population.In order to ensure the sustainable development of their agriculture,they are exploring feasible countermeasures.For China,a country with a large population,the consequences of the aging of the agricultural population are more serious and should be taken seriously.In view of risks such as the aging of China’s agricultural population and the reduction of its agricultural competitiveness,domestic scholars’ solutions mainly focus on land transfer and the cultivation of new business subjects.The application practice of developed economies in North America,East Asia and Europe shows that the main solution to the ageing of the Agricultural Population is the intergenerational succession of agricultural management.It has been found that the intergenerational succession of agricultural management in China is facing difficulties.It is an urgent problem to be solved whether the intergenerational succession in China is really facing difficulties and what are the main factors affecting it.Based on the above research background,the investigation team conducts a survey on the agricultural management of middle-aged and old-age farmers in Shandong Province,aiming to understand the current intergenerational inheritance of agricultural management,finding out the problems and causes in the process of intergenerational inheritance,and putting forward countermeasures and suggestions,which provides theoretical experience for rational understanding of the economic phenomena and outstanding problems in the development of contemporary agricultural management.The orderly intergenerational succession of Chinese agricultural management is closely related to the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers and the intergenerational inheritance willingness of the farmers’ children.Firstly,the paper analyzes the intergenerational transmission willingness of the fathergeneration farmers,and establishes the binary discrete choice model,Tobit model and threshold regression model to analyze the determinants of the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers.Then it analyzes the intergenerational inheritance intention of farmers’ children and introduces the binary discrete choice model to discuss the factors influencing the intergenerational inheritance of farmers’ children.On this basis,in order to further study the intergenerational inheritance of farmers’ children,the paper finally makes an empirical analysis on the timing of the inheritance of farmers’ children.The results show that there is a dilemma in intergenerational succession of agricultural management,and the willingness of succession is weak as a whole.One third of the father-generation farmers in the sample have a clear tendency of "Away from agriculture",and one quarter of the farmers’ children are willing to inherit the agricultural resources of their parents.The number of male labor force in the family has a significant positive impact on the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers,and the number of migrant workers or businessmen throughout the year has a significant negative impact on the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers.The aged peasant households in plain area have strong tendency to leave agriculture.In addition,on the whole,there is a positive correlation between age and the intergenerational transmission willingness of the fathergeneration farmers,but there are significant differences in the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers in different age groups.The age difference of the father-generation farmers under the age of 69 does not significantly affect their intergenerational transmission intention.the father-generation farmers of 69 years old and above have a strong tendency to leave agriculture.Whether the children of farmers return home in the busy season during the last two years,children consider the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers,the degree of willingness of the father-generation farmers to transmit and total population of father-generation families have significant positive effects on the willingness of the inheritance of farmers’ children.Among them,whether the children of farmers return home in the busy season during the last two years,the degree of willingness of the father-generation farmers to transmit negative affect their time period.Farmer cooperatives significantly shorten the inheritance time period of farmers’ children,while family farms significantly extend the time period of inheritance of farmers’ children.In addition,there is a significant negative correlation between age and the time period of intergenerational inheritance of farmers’ children.The influence of the age change of the farmers’ children younger than 38 years old on the inheritance time period is significantly higher than that of the farmers’ children older than 38 years old.In order to ensure the sustainability of intergenerational succession of Chinese agricultural management,the paper proposes the following countermeasures: Agriculture,especially cash crops such as mulberry,hemp,tea,vegetables and fruits,remains the main source of income for farmers in hilly and mountainous areas.Improving the basic agricultural production conditions in hilly mountainous areas as one of the measures to improve farmers’ recognition of farming,its importance cannot be ignored.In order to further improve farmers’ farming income and promote the healthy development of agriculture,the government should continue to adhere to and improve the new types of agricultural businesses system.In addition,the government should further improve the preferential policies for rural and rural farmers to return to farming.This measure can not only alleviate the aging degree of rural labor force and solve the problem of rural old-age care,but also promote the efficient and high-quality development of modern agriculture.更多还原