【作者】 王旭；

【导师】 王刚；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 山东省作为我国主要经济、人口和农业大省,水资源短缺和干旱情况频发,严重影响了经济和社会的发展。因此,对山东省水文干旱演变规律进行分析研究,掌握其成因及变化规律,对缓解因旱情带来的农业、生活等方面的不利影响有着积极的现实作用。本文以山东省境内125个测站的55年(1961-2015年)长系列水文气象监测数据为基础,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析研究了山东省及其境内区域的水文干旱特征及规律,并利用游程理论对干旱历时和烈度进行统计分析,对各因素和水文干旱指数间的相关性进行了分析,同时采用Hurst指标法预测了未来水文干旱情况。取得的主要结论如下:(1)山东省年降水量呈微弱下降趋势,发生突变的年份为2008年,存在3-5年、7-16年和35-42年的周期变化,主周期为12年。年蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,发生突变的年份为1990、1993和1995年,存在2-6年、9-13年和21-30年的周期变化,主周期为27年。年径流量呈下降趋势,发生突变的年份为1966、1970、1972、2003、2006、2010和2013年,其存在3-7年和11-35年左右周期变化,主周期为14年。2015年处降水量、蒸发量和径流量的周期图负等值线还未闭合,说明2015年后一定时期内仍将处于偏少状态。(2)山东省轻微干旱等级发生频率较高,中等干旱等级次之。20世纪80年代前基本以轻微干旱为主,整体发生频率最低,80年代后,严重干旱和极端干旱的发生频率大幅上升,21世纪初干旱发生频率有所降低,到序列尾端,干旱的频率又发生提升;每隔十年左右会发生一次连续性的干旱,其中冬春连旱的发生频率最高,东营市、德州市和聊城市则是干旱的多发地。(3)山东省整体干旱历时中,短时干旱在1个月时间尺度时发生最为频繁;季节性干旱在3个月时间尺度时发生较为频繁;在12个月时间尺度时,出现多类长时干旱。(4)蒸发与干旱指数的相关性不显著,径流与干旱指数的相关性较强。经标准化降水指数算得序列尾端的干旱频率变高,未来可能会继续发生干旱。从Hurst指标分析的结果可以得出山东省的干旱状况将持续下去,验证了之前的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a major province of economy,population and agriculture,Shandong province is restricted by the shortage of water resources.In addition,the frequent occurrence of drought in Shandong province has seriously affected the economic and social development.Therefore,the analysis and prediction of hydrological drought evolution rule will play a positive role in alleviating the adverse effects on agriculture and life caused by drought.This paper is based on the hydrological and meteorological data of 125 stations in 17 cities of Shandong province from 1961 to 2015 and analyzed its variation characteristics.Use the standardized precipitation index method(SPI)to analyze the hydrological drought.On this basis,the hydrological drought duration and drought intensity were statistically analyzed by using the run length theory,and the correlation between each factor and the hydrological drought index was analyzed.Finally,the future drought was predicted by using the Hurst index method.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The average annual precipitation in Shandong province showed a small fluctuation trend.The abrupt change of precipitation was likely to occur in 2008.The wavelet analysis method is used to obtain that there are multiple characteristic time scales of annual precipitation in Shandong province,which are 3-5 years,7-16 years,35-42 years.The main cycles are 12 years and 24 years.The average evaporation in Shandong province was showed a significant downward trend.The possible mutation occurred in 1990,1993 and 1995.There are several characteristic time scales of annual evaporation in Shandong province,which are2-6 years,9-13 years and 21-30 years respectively.The main cycle is 27 years.The average runoff in Shandong province was on a downward trend.The possible mutation years were1966,1970,1972,2003,2006,2010 and 2013.There are several characteristic time scales of annual runoff in Shandong province,which are 3-7 years and 11-35 years respectively,and the main cycle is 14 years.The negative contour line of the cycle chart of precipitation,evaporation and runoff in 2015 has not been closed,indicating that it will still be in a state of low after 2015.(2)Shandong province has a high frequency of mild drought level,followed by moderate drought level.Until the 1980 s basic have light drought of Shandong province is given priority to,the lowest overall drought frequency,between the 1990 s and 1980 s,heavy drought rise sharply and the frequency of drought,the frequency of drought had also greatly improve,to the end of a time series,the increase in the frequency of drought.In terms ofyears,successive droughts occurred every ten years or so,the frequency of winter and spring continuous drought was higher.Regionally,Dongying,Dezhou and Liaocheng in the north and west of Shandong province are drought-prone areas.(3)From the drought intensity,for Shandong province,it can be found that the short-term drought occurs most frequently when the time scale is one month.Season’s drought was more occured in three month time scale.In the 12 month time scale,a number of long-term droughts occurred.(4)The correlation between evaporation and drought index was not significant,but the correlation between runoff and drought index was strong.The drought conditions calculated by the standardized precipitation index also indicate that the drought frequency increased,and the drought may continue in the future.Moreover,according to the results of Hurst index analysis,it can be concluded that the drought situation in Shandong province will continue,which verifies the previous prediction.更多还原