【作者】 李静；

【导师】 孟梅；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 饲草料地是现代畜牧业发展的基础,是搬迁定居牧民生产和生活的保障。阿勒泰地区是少数民族牧民聚居的地区,饲草料地的合理有序流转对于少数民族生产生活状况的改善以及权益的保障乃至边疆地区社会稳定和经济发展至关重要。但是饲草料地现实流转中出现了一些严重问题,对于牧民利益和政策实施都存在很大的风险冲击。详细深入研究饲草料地流转中潜在的风险问题,能有效预警和规避饲草料地流转过程中危机情况的发生。结合研究结果提出相应的防范措施对实现北疆少数民族牧业村的社会稳定以及长治久安具有深远的现实意义。本文以防范饲草料地流转的风险为出发点,结合已有的研究成果,构建系统动力学风险识别模型,力图理清饲草料地流转复杂系统中各种风险因素的相互联系和相互作用,并运用原因树识别出关键的风险因素。同时,基于阿勒泰地区3个县市18个牧业村的问卷调查,构建牧民饲草料地流转风险认知影响因素逐步回归模型,从牧民角度分析风险影响因素,并将结果与系统动力学模型做验证分析。研究结果表明,逐步回归模型中的风险影响因素:参与社会保险、饲草料地流转原因、信贷机会、牧户拥有饲草料地面积、就医支付能力、牲畜管理方式、饲草料地流转形式。这些因素均与饲草料地流转风险识别模型中的农牧业生产经营风险、牧民权益风险、社会稳定风险、生态环境风险和政策风险有逻辑联系。最后,根据饲草料地流转风险识别系统动力学模型的风险反馈回路,逐一对风险提出对策建议,以期对饲草料地流转程序中的风险起到有效防范和规避作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forage land is the basis of the development of modern animal husbandry,and is the guarantee of the relocation of herdsmen.Aletai area is an area inhabited by ethnic herdsmen,Forage land in the reasonable and orderly transfer of security and even social stability in border areas and economic development is essential for the production and the improvement of life of minority rights.However,there are some serious problems in the reality of the forage land,which have great impact on the interests of the herdsmen and the policy implementation.Study on forage land transfer risk,to better prevent and reduce the forage land transfer crisis events occur in the process,and then put forward the risk prevention measures to improve the forage land transfer,has important practical meaning for the development of animal husbandry to achieve stable and harmonious society,so the study room is very necessary.Based on the risk prevention of forage land transfer as the starting point,combined with existing research on risk,the risk identification model based on system dynamics was established to identify the interaction and interaction of various risk factors in the complex system of forage grass land transfer.In addition,based on the questionnaire survey of 18 villages of 3 counties in Aletai,to construct the regression model of the risk factors of herdsman forage land transfer,and analyze the risk factors from the point of view of herdsmen.The results show that the stepwise regression model of risk:participation in social insurance,pasture transfer reasons,credit opportunities,herdsmen forage land area,currently has the ability to pay,medical treatment by means of livestock feeding,forage land transfer forms.All of the above factors are related to the production and management risk,the rights and interests of herdsmen,social stability risk,ecological environment risk and policy risk.Finally,according to the risk of forage land circulation dynamics model of risk identification system of feedback loop,one by one put forward the suggestions on the risk,in order to forage land transfer risk in the program to effectively prevent and avoid the effect.更多还原