【作者】 陈燕；

【导师】 毛笑文；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 旅游管理（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着中国经济迅猛发展,改革红利持续放大,居民年收入的日益增加,人均消费水平的不断提升,公共假期的调整和人们对生活及自身所处环境日益关注。二十世纪八十年代,周庄率先发展旅游业,让古镇旅游逐渐进入人们的视野,古镇以其独特的建筑风貌、丰富的历史遗迹、古朴的环境氛围备受关注,到二十世纪九十年代慢慢成为新的旅游市场,慢慢成为旅游市场发展的新方向。周庄古镇带火整个古镇旅游业开发与发展,作为旅游热点的古镇旅游,致力于实现环境友好型的旅游发展模式,将社会经济与环境保护相互协调发展,实现旅游业可持续发展。然而,随着时间推移,各地古镇管理者为实现古镇资源多样化和财富最大化,提供同质旅游产品,雷同的旅游开发模式,忽视古镇景区因满负荷的承载量、日益严重的环境污染等相关问题,这些都是古镇旅游从发展期步入衰退期的警示。本文利用灰色理论,结合旅游市场学、统计学,制定相应的统计指标,通过实地调研和问卷调查,获得第一手可靠资料,从而对浙江义乌佛堂古镇景区旅游客源市场的游客属性、时空结构以及市场拓展进行分析研究,并结合2009-2018年浙江义乌佛堂古镇景区的旅游人数与旅游收入原始数据,预测2019-2023年古镇景区的旅游人数与旅游收入最后结合预测数据,分别从古镇旅游空间规划、项目配套和营销管理等方面来研究古镇旅游的发展策略。对于意见管理者而言,准确的预测可以基于访客规则的变化,旅游资源的合理调度和区域分配,减少旅游里面的很多的不必要的浪费,更重要的是还能提高由旅游业带来经济可行性和社会声誉;其次,对于游客来说,可以根据未来的客流量进行计划,实现合理的交通分配和改善时间线上的旅行体验;第三,服务业处于全景区(酒店、宾馆等)来说,根据近几年的游客人数和旅游收入,可以提前估计未来旅游收入和旅游人数,做出相关的行业调整,有助于资源的合理性应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy,the annual increase of residents’ income,the gradual improvement of per capita consumption level,and the adjustment of statutory holidays,Chinese residents pay more and more attention to the surrounding environment.In the 1990 s,with its unique simple charm,unique architectural style and profound cultural heritage,the ancient town has become a new tourist market with unique charm,and the tourism of the ancient town has gradually entered people’s vision.The ancient town has become a special tourist destination,which represents a new direction of tourism market development.Ancient town tourism has become a hotspot in the field of tourism.To realize the friendly development of tourism environment in ancient town is not only the objective need of social and economic development of ancient town,but also an important guarantee to ensure the sustainable development of tourism and promote social harmony,comprehensive and sustainable development.However,some ancient town managers urgently want to maximize the resources and wealth of the ancient town,and the related problems such as the excessive carrying capacity of the ancient town scenic spots and the increasingly serious environmental pollution in the area under the jurisdiction of the ancient town caused by the tourism development of the ancient town follow,warning that the development of the ancient town is about to enter a recession period.Based on the grey theory and life cycle theory of tourist destination,combined with tourism marketing and statistics,this paper formulates corresponding statistical indicators,obtains first-hand reliable data through field research and questionnaire survey,and then makes an analysis and Research on tourist attributes,spatial and temporal structure and market expansion of tourist source market in Fotang ancient town scenic spot of Yiwu,Zhejiang Province.Based on the original data of the number of tourists and tourism income of Fotang ancient town scenic spot in Yiwu,Zhejiang,from2009 to 2018,the paper predicts the number of tourists and tourism income of the ancient town scenic spot in 2019-2023.Finally,combined with the forecast data,it studies the development strategy of the ancient town tourism from the aspects of tourism spatial planning,project matching and marketing management.For opinion managers,accurate prediction can be based on changes in visitor rules,rational allocation of tourism resources and regional distribution to reduce a lot of unnecessary waste in tourism.More importantly,it can also enhance the economic feasibility and social reputation brought by tourism.Secondly,for tourists,according to future passenger flow,they can plan to achieve reasonable traffic allocation and improve travel experience on time line.Finally,the service industry is in a panoramic area(hotels,hotels,etc.).According to the number of tourists and tourism income in recent years,we can estimate the future tourism income and tourism number in advance.We can make relevant industry adjustmentsand make the rational use of resources.更多还原